Losses disguised as wins in multiline slots: using an educational animation to reduce erroneous win overestimates

Slot machines are available in several countries, with multiline games growing in popularity. Interestingly, many audiovisually reinforced small ‘wins’ in multiline games are in fact monetary losses – outcomes referred to as losses disguised as wins (LDWs). Research suggests that LDWs cause players to overestimate how many times they remember actually winning during a playing session. The study sought to replicate this finding and see if a short educational animation about LDWs could significantly reduce this LDW-triggered win overestimation effect. It employed a mixed design, with animation viewed (LDW, control) as the between-subjects factor, and game played (200 spins on a few LDW or many LDW game; game order counterbalanced) as the within-subjects factor. Fifty-four novice participants estimated how many times they won more than they wagered in each game. In the control animation group, the study replicated the LDW-triggered win overestimation effect for participants playing the many LDW game. Crucially, win overestimates were significantly reduced in this many LDW game for players exposed to the LDW animation. The study concludes that LDWs can lead novice gamblers to remember winning more often than they actually do during a playing session, but educating participants about LDWs can reduce these erroneous win overestimates.     

Making connections: Severe mental illness and closeness with other people

Much has been written about social lives of people with severe mental illness (SMI). Before social lives can flourish, however, people with SMI must first get close to other people. We studied this closeness by holding three hour-long focus groups at Fountain House, a community mental health agency in New York City. We found that closeness between two people with SMI is challenging because someone with depression, for example, may have trouble understanding someone with a different disorder (e.g., schizophrenia). Romantically, closeness is also challenging—SMI is hard to explain to partners. In the workplace, closeness is difficult because SMI can alienate co-workers. It could push them away. In mental health programs, we found that closeness has more of a chance to develop (1) during evening and weekend activities; (2) when activities are planned often enough to prevent isolation; and (3) when staff reach out to people before extended absence causes distance.     

Parameter Estimation Robust to Low-Frequency Contamination

We provide methods to robustly estimate the parameters of stationary ergodic short-memory time series models in the potential presence of additive low-frequency contamination. The types of contamination covered include level shifts (changes in mean) and monotone or smooth time trends, both of which have been shown to bias parameter estimates toward regions of persistence in a variety of contexts. The estimators presented here minimize trimmed frequency domain quasi-maximum likelihood (FDQML) objective functions without requiring specification of the low-frequency contaminating component. When proper sample size-dependent trimmings are used, the FDQML estimators are consistent and asymptotically normal, asymptotically eliminating the presence of any spurious persistence. These asymptotic results also hold in the absence of additive low-frequency contamination, enabling the practitioner to robustly estimate model parameters without prior knowledge of whether contamination is present. Popular time series models that fit into the framework of this article include autoregressive moving average (ARMA), stochastic volatility, generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH), and autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH) models. We explore the finite sample properties of the trimmed FDQML estimators of the parameters of some of these models, providing practical guidance on trimming choice. Empirical estimation results suggest that a large portion of the apparent persistence in certain volatility time series may indeed be spurious. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.     

Breaking bad: an attachment perspective on youth mentoring relationship closures

Endings in youth mentoring relationships have received little attention to date despite the frequency with which they occur. In this paper, we bring an attachment theory perspective to bear on youth mentoring relationship closures and consider how the rich empirical and theoretical literature on attachment can inform mentoring programme practice and possibly help prevent premature and poorly handled mentoring relationship endings. We consider what is known about endings in youth mentoring relationships, articulate an attachment perspective on mentoring relationships and their endings and offer recommendations informed by these literatures for how mentoring programmes can promote positive closure when relationships come to an end.     

Is the Lack of Specific Lesbian,Gay, Bisexual,Transgender and Queer/Questioning (LGBTQ) Health Care Education in Medical School a Cause for Concern? Evidence From a Survey of Knowledge and Practice Among UK Medical Students

Lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender and queer/questioning (LGBTQ) people frequently report negative health care encounters. Medical professionals may inadequately manage LGBTQ persons’ health if they have not received training in this area. An anonymous survey measuring efficacy in health situations among LGBTQ persons was answered by 166 medical students across all years of a UK university. Results show that 84.9% of participants reported a lack of LGBTQ health care education, with deficits in confidence clarifying unfamiliar sexual and gender terms, deciding the ward in which to nurse transgender patients, finding support resources, and discussing domestic abuse with LGBTQ patients. Most participants reported that they would not clarify gender pronouns or ask about gender or sexual identity in mental health or reproductive health settings. Participants reported infrequently observing doctors making similar inquiries. Participants held positive attitudes toward LGBTQ patients, with attitude scores positively correlating with LGBTQ terminology knowledge scores (r_s = 0.5052, p < .01). Addressing gender identity and sexuality issues within medical curricula may remove barriers to accessing health care and improve encounters for LGBTQ patients.     

STUDENT RESPONSIVENESS TO EARNINGS DATA IN THE COLLEGE SCORECARD

Using the universe of SAT score sends to colleges and the exact date on which these scores are sent, we estimate how students responded to the release of the U.S. Department of Education's College Scorecard in September 2015. We find that data on annual cost and graduation rate, both of which were previously available, did not impact the volume of score sends received by colleges. By contrast, we estimate that each 10% increase in reported earnings resulted in a 2.4% increase in score sends. The impact is driven almost entirely by well‐resourced high schools and students. We find little evidence that the count or composition of enrolled students changed as a result of the Scorecard information shock with the exception of a slight increase in academic preparedness, as measured by SAT scores, among enrollees at colleges with higher reported earnings. (JEL I2, I23, I26, I28, L15)     

Locality and community: coming to terms with place

The paper seeks to examine how social science has attempted to combine the uniqueness of place with general social processes. Two concepts which have traditionally been used to this end are examined; these are ‘locality’ and ‘community’. It is argued that although community has fallen out of favour, problems associated with the use of ‘locality’ could lead to a revival in the use of the former concept. Case study material from rural Wales is presented to show how the two approaches might usefully be combined.     

Time series analysis and stochastic forecasting: An econometric study of mortality and life expectancy

Methods for time series modeling of mortality and stochastic forecasting of life expectancies are explored, using Canadian data. Consideration is given first to alternative indexes of aggregate mortality. Age-sex group system models are then estimated. Issues in the forecasting of life expectancies are discussed and their quantitative implications investigated. Experimental stochastic forecasts are presented and discussed, based on nonparametric, partially parametric, and fully parametric methods, representing alternatives to the well known Lee-Carter method. Some thoughts are offered on the interpretation of historical data in generating future probability distributions, and on the treatment of demographic uncertainty in long-run policy planning. All correspondence to Frank T. Denton. This paper is a revised version of one presented at the Annual Congress of the European Society for Population Economics, Athens, Greece, June 2001. The underlying work was carried out as part of the SEDAP (Social and Economic Dimensions of an Aging Population) Research Program supported by the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada, Statistics Canada and the Canadian Institute for Health Information. Ronald Lee provided comments that were very helpful in revising an earlier version of the paper. We thank him and participants at the ESPE session at which that version was presented. We thank also the Journal's anonymous referees. Responsible editor: Junsen Zhang.