Cross-national changes in time-use: some sociological (hi) stories re-examined

The paper addresses some macro-sociological questions about changes in broad categories of time-use. The focus is on large-scale cross-national time trends from developed countries in paid and unpaid work, and leisure. Reference is made to some well-known sociological and historical accounts of such change, and to the fact that time-use diary data has only relatively recently become available for analysing trends over time. The data used are drawn from a comparative cross-time data archive held by the Institute for Social and Economic Research at Essex University, comprising successive time-use diary surveys from a range of industrialized countries collected from the 1960s to the 1990s. The time use evidence suggests relative stability in the balance between work and leisure time over the period covered by the analyses. Some alternative explanations are advanced for why there seems to be a gap between this evidence and, on the one hand, the burgeoning literature in both academic and popular media addressing the 'time famine' and, on the other, people's professed experience of what is happening to their time.     

Assessment-Informed Intervention for Aphasia in an Older Adult: Transfer of Stimulus Control Procedure Considerations

The purpose of this study was to contribute to the small but growing literature on the rehabilitation of language for older adults, as well as evaluate the clinical utility of a functional approach to language assessment. The study included an assessment-based response profile that informed individualized treatment targets and prompt selection, and a multiple-baseline design across behaviors with an embedded multielement design was used to systematically compare two transfer of stimulus control procedures. Results suggested that the prompt-delay procedure resulted in positive treatment outcomes and provided valuable information on the implications of basing treatment goals on functional assessment.     

In Living Memory: The Demographic Dynamics of Event Recollection in a Stable Population*

We model a stable population that has experienced an important historical event and the declining proportion, as time passes, of the population that remembers that event. The proportion is determined by the demographic characteristics of the population, including its age distribution, the natural rate of growth, the underlying birth rate, the life table probabilities to which the population is subject, and the effects of immigration and emigration under alternative assumptions about the nature of the event. (We distinguish between “local” and “universal” events.) It is determined also by the choice of an age of awareness of children at the time the event occurred. We preface development of the model by noting examples of major events of the kind we have in mind and, after development, explore the model's sensitivity to different parameter specifications by experimental simulation. The output of each experiment is a sequence of “remembering” proportions at successive decade intervals and the corresponding mean ages of the “rememberers” in relation to the overall mean age of the population.     

Important Events in Career Counseling: Client and Counselor Descriptions

The authors used a content analysis system to classify career‐counseling participants' responses to questions about the helpfulness of their recently completed counseling experiences. Both clients and counselors most frequently identified client gains associated with self‐exploration and with emotional support as most helpful. Members of both groups frequently identified ineffective counselor‐selected activities as least helpful. Clients rated their experiences as significantly more effective than did their counselors. The authors discuss implications of these results for the validity of the content analysis system and the nature and practice of career counseling.     

A statistical framework for ecological and aggregate studies

Inference from studies that make use of data at the level of the area, rather than at the level of the individual, is more difficult for a variety of reasons. Some of these difficulties arise because frequently exposures (including confounders) vary within areas. In the most basic form of ecological study the outcome measure is regressed against a simple area level summary of exposure. In the aggregate data approach a survey of exposures and confounders is taken within each area. An alternative approach is to assume a parametric form for the within-area exposure distribution. We provide a framework within which ecological and aggregate data studies may be viewed, and we review some approaches to inference in such studies, clarifying the assumptions on which they are based. General strategies for analysis are provided including an estimator based on Monte Carlo integration that allows inference in the case of a general risk–exposure model. We also consider the implications of the introduction of random effects, and the existence of confounding and errors in variables.     

A Note on Bayesian Prediction from the Regression Model with Informative Priors

This paper considers the problem of undertaking a predictive analysis from a regression model when proper conjugate priors are used. It shows how the prior information can be incorporated as a virtual experiment by augmenting the data, and it derives expressions for both the prior and the posterior predictive densities. The results obtained are of considerable practical importance to practitioners of Bayesian regression methods.     

A Structure Theorem for Rationalizability with Application to Robust Predictions of Refinements

Rationalizability is a central solution concept of game theory. Economic models often have many rationalizable outcomes, motivating economists to use refinements of rationalizability, including equilibrium refinements. In this paper we try to achieve a general understanding of when this multiplicity occurs and how one should deal with it. Assuming that the set of possible payoff functions and belief structures is sufficiently rich, we establish a revealing structure of the correspondence of beliefs to sets of rationalizable outcomes. We show that, for any rationalizable action a of any type, we can perturb the beliefs of the type in such a way that a is uniquely rationalizable for the new type. This unique outcome will be robust to further small changes. When multiplicity occurs, then we are in a “knife‐edge” case, where the unique rationalizable outcome changes, sandwiched between open sets of types where each of the rationalizable actions is uniquely rationalizable. As an immediate application of this result, we characterize, for any refinement of rationalizability, the predictions that are robust to small misspecifications of interim beliefs. These are only those predictions that are true for all rationalizable strategies, that is, the predictions that could have been made without the refinement.     

Estimating Dynamic Models of Imperfect Competition

We describe a two‐step algorithm for estimating dynamic games under the assumption that behavior is consistent with Markov perfect equilibrium. In the first step, the policy functions and the law of motion for the state variables are estimated. In the second step, the remaining structural parameters are estimated using the optimality conditions for equilibrium. The second step estimator is a simple simulated minimum distance estimator. The algorithm applies to a broad class of models, including industry competition models with both discrete and continuous controls such as the Ericson and Pakes (1995) model. We test the algorithm on a class of dynamic discrete choice models with normally distributed errors and a class of dynamic oligopoly models similar to that of Pakes and McGuire (1994).