Return Migration and Decontamination After the 2011 Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant Disaster

Return migration is key to community recovery from many disasters. Japanese governments have conducted radiation decontamination efforts in the Exclusion Zone designated after the 2011 Fukushima nuclear disaster in order to encourage this outcome. Little is known, however, about the factors that influence post-disaster migrants to return, and, if people are relatively unresponsive to decontamination, then the costs of promoting recovery may exceed the benefits. We exploit a unique survey of Fukushima evacuees to determine the factors that influence their decision to return after a disaster. Location-specific capital characteristics, such as housing tenure and the extent of property damage, are estimated to be strong factors. The radiation dose rate of the home location is found to be a statistically significant factor for intent to return, but its effect is small. We also found that households with various other characteristics were noncommittal about the return option and likely to defer their decisions, which implies that “return” and “not-return” are asymmetric. Our simulation analysis found that the number of returnees encouraged by this decontamination was 12,882, less than 8% of the total evacuees, while the decontamination cost per returnee was 3.36 million USD. This result implies that the government could have improved the well-being of evacuees at a lower cost by policies other than decontamination.     

Safety of a meningococcal group B vaccine used in response to two university outbreaks

Objective: To assess the safety of meningococcal group B (MenB)-4C vaccine. Participants: Undergraduates, dormitory residents, and persons with high-risk medical conditions received the MenB-4C vaccine two-dose series during mass vaccination clinics from 12/2013 through 11/2014. Methods: Adverse events (AEs) were identified by 15 minutes of observation postvaccination, spontaneous reports, surveys, and hospital surveillance. Causality was assessed for serious adverse events (SAEs). Results: 16,974 persons received 31,313 MenB-4C doses. The incidence of syncope during the 15-minutes post-dose 1 was 0.88/1000 persons. 2% of participants spontaneously reported an AE (most common were arm pain and fever). 3 SAEs were suspected of being caused by the vaccine, including one case of anaphylaxis. Conclusions: Most AEs reported were nonserious and consistent with previous clinical trial findings. Measures to prevent injury from syncope and to treat anaphylaxis should be available wherever vaccines are administered. Our safety evaluation supports the use of MenB-4C in response to outbreaks.     

Qualitative cost–benefit evaluation of complex,emergent programs

This paper discusses a methodology used for a qualitative cost–benefit evaluation of a complex, emergent program. Complex, emergent programs, where implementation varies considerably over time and across sites to respond to local needs and opportunities, present challenges to conventional methods for cost–benefit evaluation. Such programs are characterized by: ill-defined boundaries of what constitutes the intervention, and hence the resources used; non-standardized procedures; differing short-term outcomes across projects, even within the same long-term goals; and outcomes that are the result of multiple factors and co-production, making counter-factual approaches to attribution inadequate and the use of standardized outcome measures problematic. The paper discusses the advantages and limitations of this method and its implications for cost–benefit evaluation of complex programs.     

The World Bank's Use of Country Systems for Procurement: A Good Idea Gone Bad?

The World Bank's newest country‐systems policy, adopted in 2008, allows borrowers to use their national systems to conduct procurement and manage finances for Bank‐funded projects. In principle, it will incentivise institutional reform, increase local ownership, and facilitate donor harmonisation. In practice, its content and the handling of stakeholder input seem to indicate that the Bank's dominant desire has been to preserve its market share. This article demonstrates (i) how deficiencies in the policy may reverse the Bank's work on governance and undercut aid efficiency, and (ii) how its handling of public consultations on the policy ignored the Bank's best practices. It concludes with steps for improving the policy, including re‐opening dialogue with key stakeholders.     

Institutions and Policies for Pro‐poor Agricultural Growth

Global experience with pro‐poor growth and empirical work spanning India, Malawi and Zimbabwe demonstrates the importance of agricultural growth for poverty reduction in poor rural areas, while also pointing to the need for complementary non‐farm sector growth. Theoretical arguments, historical evidence and livelihoods modelling in poor medium‐potential rural economies suggest that, contrary to thinking dominating much of current development policy, subsidies to relieve critical seasonal credit and cash restraints and reduce market and input supply uncertainties need to help in ‘kick‐starting’ agricultural markets if increased smallholder productivity in food‐grains is to drive rural non‐farm growth. Establishing the base conditions for these to work, designing and implementing them to be effective, and then phasing them out are major challenges facing policymakers.     

Evaluating Efficiency-Equality Tradeoffs for Mobile Source Control Strategies in an Urban Area

In environmental risk management, there are often interests in maximizing public health benefits (efficiency) and addressing inequality in the distribution of health outcomes. However, both dimensions are not generally considered within a single analytical framework. In this study, we estimate both total population health benefits and changes in quantitative indicators of health inequality for a number of alternative spatial distributions of diesel particulate filter retrofits across half of an urban bus fleet in Boston, Massachusetts. We focus on the impact of emissions controls on primary fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) emissions, modeling the effect on PM_2.5 concentrations and premature mortality. Given spatial heterogeneity in baseline mortality rates, we apply the Atkinson index and other inequality indicators to quantify changes in the distribution of mortality risk. Across the different spatial distributions of control strategies, the public health benefits varied by more than a factor of two, related to factors such as mileage driven per day, population density near roadways, and baseline mortality rates in exposed populations. Changes in health inequality indicators varied across control strategies, with the subset of optimal strategies considering both efficiency and equality generally robust across different parametric assumptions and inequality indicators. Our analysis demonstrates the viability of formal analytical approaches to jointly address both efficiency and equality in risk assessment, providing a tool for decisionmakers who wish to consider both issues.