Property Loss Estimation for Wind and Earthquake Perils

This article describes the development of a generic loss assessment methodology, which is applicable to earthquake and windstorm perils worldwide. The latest information regarding hazard estimation is first integrated with the parameters that best describe the intensity of the action of both windstorms and earthquakes on building structures, for events with defined average return periods or recurrence intervals. The subsequent evaluation of building vulnerability (damageability) under the action of both earthquake and windstorm loadings utilizes information on damage and loss from past events, along with an assessment of the key building properties (including age and quality of design and construction), to assess information about the ability of buildings to withstand such loadings and hence to assign a building type to the particular risk or portfolio of risks. This predicted damage information is then translated into risk-specific mathematical vulnerability functions, which enable numerical evaluation of the probability of building damage arising at various defined levels. By assigning cost factors to the defined damage levels, the associated computation of total loss at a given level of hazard may be achieved. This developed methodology is universal in the sense that it may be applied successfully to buildings situated in a variety of earthquake and windstorm environments, ranging from very low to extreme levels of hazard. As a loss prediction tool, it enables accurate estimation of losses from potential scenario events linked to defined return periods and, hence, can greatly assist risk assessment and planning.     

Innovation Management as a Post-Modern Phenomenon: The Outsourcing of Pharmaceutical R&D

The institutionalization of R&D by large, modern organizations is regarded as one of the most significant social and economic factors of the twentieth century. In recent years post-modern organizations have begun to replace bureaucratic control with market control. This approach is particularly attractive in the case of R&D employees who have been relatively successful in resisting direct managerial control. Government statistics are used to demonstrate that external R&D increased from 5% to 16% of internal R&D expenditure between 1989 and 1995. This trend is examined in the context of consolidation within the UK pharmaceutical industry, which has considerable implications for the sustainability of high-technology industry in the UK.     

Estimating conditional tail expectation with actuarial applications in view

We develop statistical inferential tools for estimating and comparing conditional tail expectation (CTE) functions, which are of considerable interest in actuarial science. In particular, we construct estimators for the CTE functions, develop the necessary asymptotic theory for the estimators, and then use the theory for constructing confidence intervals and bands for the functions. Both parametric and non-parametric approaches are explored. Simulation studies illustrate the performance of estimators in various situations. Results are obtained under minimal assumptions, and the general Vervaat process plays a crucial role in achieving these goals.     

Experiencing Work: Values, Attitudes, and Moods

This paper describes a model (the VAM model)which integrates three of the most significantdimensions of the work experience, work values,attitudes, and moods, into one overarching framework.The VAM model proposes that a rich and more completeunderstanding of the experience of work necessitates thesimultaneous consideration of work values, attitudes,and moods. After describing how work values, attitudes, and moods, each capture key aspects ofexperiencing work, we discuss three important dimensionsalong which they vary: time, dynamism, and focus. Thesedimensions underscore the need for the simultaneous consideration of values, attitudes, and moodsfor a fuller understanding of the work experience. Wethen describe how work values, attitudes, and moods havethe potential to influence each other. Finally, we discuss the implications of the VAM modelfor understanding important organizational outcomesincluding extra-role behavior, job performance, socialloafing, absenteeism, and turnover.     

The Protestant Ethic: Weber s Model and the Empirical Literature

Empirical research with regard to the Protestantethic is reviewed in relation to Weber s model of thepart a specifically religious ethos played in the riseof capitalism. Weber argued that Western legal and commercial changes were not in themselvesan adequate explanation. Essential also was the set ofvalues emphasized by ascetic Protestantism:self-discipline, hard work, the careful use of time, the reinvestment of one s gains, personal honesty,creative innovation, and faith in the rewards of a justGod. Empirical research has found positive correlationsbetween Protestant ethic values and internal locus of control (self-discipline), hard work,honesty, and belief in a just world. Findings withregard to the use of time and money are inconclusive.The relationship with creative innovation has not been examined. There is a need for empiricalstudy of the relationship between the Protestant ethicand personal religious orientation.     

Low-Income Mothers' Conversations About Emotions and Their Children's Emotional Competence

This study examined the linkage between low-income mothers' conversations about emotions and their children's understanding of emotion. Forty-five low-income preschoolers and their mothers were videotaped while viewing a wordless picture book designed to elicit talk about emotions. Three maternal and child emotional language behaviors were coded from the videotapes: (a) unelaborated comments about emotions; (b) explanations about the causes and consequences of emotions; and (c) empathy-related statements. The children's questions about emotions were also coded. In a separate interview, the preschoolers were administered tasks that assessed emotional expression knowledge, emotional situation knowledge, and emotional role-taking. The results revealed that emotional situation knowledge was positively predicted by mothers' empathy-related statements. Mothers' explanations about the causes and consequences of emotions were uniquely related to emotional role-taking ability. There were very few correlations between the mothers' and children's talk about emotions. Results are discussed in terms of the functional significance of mothers' emotional language for young children's emotional competence.     

Family-Enterprise Initiatives as a Response to Socioeconomic and Political Change in Eastern and Central Europe

It is argued that family business enterprises can be an adaptive response to the transformations that recently have characterized Eastern and Central Europe. Family-centered initiatives are important for sustainable socioeconomic development. In this article, a family-enterprise incubator scheme for the stimulation of family and socioeconomic development is discussed. This approach incorporates resources, services, and supports beyond those conventionally offered.     

Estimating time to detect time trends in continuous cropping

SUMMARY In long-term field trials comparing different sequences of crops and husbandry practices, the identification and understanding of trends in productivity over time is an important issue of sustainable crop production. This paper presents a statistical technique for the estimation of time trends in yield variables of a seasonal annual crop under continuous cropping. The estimation procedure incorporates the correlation structure, which is assumed to follow first-order autocorrelation in the errors that arise over time on the same plot. Because large differences in annual rainfall have a major effect on crop performance, rainfall has been allowed for in the estimation of the time trends. Expressions for the number of years (time) required to detect statistically significant time trends have been obtained. Illustrations are based on a 7-year data set of grain and straw yields from a trial in northern Syria. Although agronomic interpretation is not intended in this paper, the barley yield data indicated that a significant time trend can apparently be detected even in a suboptimal data set of 7 years' duration.