On the Optimality of Prediction-based Selection Criteria and the Convergence Rates of Estimators

Several estimators of squared prediction error have been suggested for use in model and bandwidth selection problems. Among these are cross-validation, generalized cross-validation and a number of related techniques based on the residual sum of squares. For many situations with squared error loss, e.g. nonparametric smoothing, these estimators have been shown to be asymptotically optimal in the sense that in large samples the estimator minimizing the selection criterion also minimizes squared error loss. However, cross-validation is known not to be asymptotically optimal for some `easy' location problems. We consider selection criteria based on estimators of squared prediction risk for choosing between location estimators. We show that criteria based on adjusted residual sum of squares are not asymptotically optimal for choosing between asymptotically normal location estimators that converge at rate n ^1/2but are when the rate of convergence is slower. We also show that leave-one-out cross-validation is not asymptotically optimal for choosing between √ n -differentiable statistics but leave- d -out cross-validation is optimal when d ∞ at the appropriate rate.     

An Explicit Formula for the Risk of the Positive-Part James-Stein Estimator

When estimating a normal mean vector with variance known up to a multiplicative factor, it is well known that the positive-part James-Stein estimator is not admissible, but until now, no one has been able to exhibit a uniformly better estimator. We propose here an explicit formula for the risk of the positive-part James-Stein estimator.     

Does a Brochure About Pathological Gambling Provide New Information?

The purpose of the present study is to evaluate whether a brochure on pathological gambling provides new information and knowledge to the general population. A total of 115 randomly chosen people from shopping malls and municipal parks were randomly distributed to control and experimental groups. Results indicated that the brochure provided new information concerning problem gambling, at risk behaviors, and the availability of specialised help.     

Brief Communications Analysis of a Casino's Self-Exclusion Program

As gambling facilities become more available, the number of pathological gamblers increases. Effective therapeutic and preventive interventions should be developed and systematically evaluated. Self-exclusion programs may be a useful means to facilitate self-control among problem gamblers. This paper describes the characteristics of individuals who decided to bar themselves from a Canadian casino. Two hundred twenty individuals participated in the present study and completed a questionnaire including four sections: (1) socio-demographic data, (2) the South Oaks Gambling Screen, (3) gambling habits, and (4) prior experiences with the self-exclusion program. According to the SOGS, 95% of the participants were classified as severe pathological gamblers on the SOGS (Mean score = 9.87). Furthermore, based on self-reported observation, 30% of the participants completely stopped gambling once enrolled in this program. No one scored within the interval of non-problem gamblers. Suggestions to improve self-exclusion programs are discussed.     

MISSED CALL? A REEXAMINATION OF SPORT FANS' AND NONFANS' ALCOHOL USAGE AND ALCOHOL-RELATED EXPERIENCES

The current investigation attempted to replicate and extend Nelson and Weschler's (2003 Nelson , T. F. and H. Wechsler . 2003 . “School Spirits: Alcohol and Collegiate Sport Fans.” Addictive Behaviors 28 : 1 – 11 .[Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) research that indicated that college student sport fans were more likely to report problematic alcohol usage and more negative alcohol-related experiences in comparison to nonfans. In addition to utilizing the original study's operational definition of fan (spectator-based), 323 college students were categorized according to more traditional measures of fandom, specifically levels of fan and team identification. Contrary to the previous research, the results indicated that fans' and nonfans' alcohol usage and experiences of negative alcohol-related events were not significantly different. Additionally, both forms of identification (fan and team) failed to predict problematic alcohol usage and negative alcohol-related experiences. Although the results were unaffected by the operational definitions of fan, distinguishing certain subgroups of fans may be important in regards to clarifying and advancing our understanding of the potential relationship between sport and alcohol usage. These distinctions could guide efforts to reduce problematic alcohol usage.     

A sexual affiliation network of swingers,heterosexuals practicing risk behaviours that potentiate the spread of sexually transmitted infections: A two-mode approach

Using the example of the sexual affiliation networks of swingers, this paper examines how the analysis of sexual affiliation networks can contribute to the development of sexually transmitted infection (STI) prevention strategies. Two-mode network methodology and ERGMs are applied to describe the structural composition of the affiliation network and analyse attribute effects. Swingers were found to recruit their sex partners through one large, moderately cohesive network component. Swingers who used drugs or had a longer history of swinging tended to frequent websites instead of clubs. This study confirms the relevance of studying sexual affiliation networks and its additional value for STI epidemiology.     

The Uses of the Past and European Integration: Austria between Lisbon,Ireland, and EURO 08

This article examines Austrian national identity negotiations through a qualitative analysis of the country's ideologically heterogeneous media, with a focus on Austria's most widely read paper (and its popular readers’ letters pages) between April and August 2008. This turbulent period coincided with widening opposition to the EU's Lisbon reform treaty, Austria's co-hosting of the European football championship, and the collapse of the country's coalition government. This analysis of media coverage and readers’ letters focuses on the rhetorical strategies underpinning various discursive constructions of Austria's place within the EU. The following key findings are discussed: projections of perceived social ills and resulting anxieties onto the EU; the interpretative uses of the past—historical episodes selected from Austrian and other national contexts—to make sense of and politicize the present; constructions of ‘European ideals’ in juxtaposition to perceived ‘European realities’; and competing models of national identity in relation to the European ‘network state.’