Frequentist and Bayesian approaches for a joint model for prostate cancer risk and longitudinal prostate-specific antigen data

The paper describes the use of frequentist and Bayesian shared-parameter joint models of longitudinal measurements of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) and the risk of prostate cancer (PCa). The motivating dataset corresponds to the screening arm of the Spanish branch of the European Randomized Screening for Prostate Cancer study. The results show that PSA is highly associated with the risk of being diagnosed with PCa and that there is an age-varying effect of PSA on PCa risk. Both the frequentist and Bayesian paradigms produced very close parameter estimates and subsequent 95% confidence and credibility intervals. Dynamic estimations of disease-free probabilities obtained using Bayesian inference highlight the potential of joint models to guide personalized risk-based screening strategies.     

A Correlation Test for Normality Based on the Lévy Characterization

A powerful test of fit for normal distributions is proposed. Based on the Lévy characterization, the test statistic is the sample correlation coefficient of normal quantiles and sums of pairs of observations from a random sample. Since the test statistic is location-scale invariant, critical values can be obtained by simulation without estimating any parameters. It is proved that this test is consistent. A power comparison study including some directed tests shows that the proposed test is competitive, it is more powerful than the well-known Jarque–Bera test, and it is comparable to Shapiro–Wilk test against a number of alternatives.     

Attributions and coping in sexually abused adolescents referred for group treatment

This study aims to assess the predictive value of two sets of variables, self-attributions, and coping behaviors, on sexually abused (SA) teenagers' functioning, while controlling for abuse-related and family variables. A total of 103 female adolescents completed self-report measures to assess their psychological functioning in terms of anxiety, depression, PTSD, sexual concerns, dissociation, anger, their self-injurious behaviors, antisocial behaviors, and drug use. After controlling for SA and family characteristics, final regression models indicate that attributions and coping behaviors explained between 22% and 39% of additional unique variance for seven out of the nine measures of adolescent functioning. Attributions and coping behaviors did not significantly explain additional variance for scores of antisocial behaviors and drug use. Personal attributions of blame for negative events were the strongest predictors of adolescents' functioning. Implications for future research and interventions are highlighted.     

Families' values and attitudes regarding responsibility for the frail elderly: implications for aging policy

This study examines the norms and values associated with care to disabled and frail aging parents, in particular those with regard to the sharing of responsibilities for care between families and formal services, and this within three age cohorts in Quebec, Canada. It is based on a telephone interview of 1,315 people. Factor analysis yielded four factors: (1) family responsibility; (2) uncompromising family obligations; (3) acceptance of services; (4) distrust of services. Analyses of the data indicate that all three age cohorts consider that families have responsibilities for their aging family members, at the same time that they score very high on the acceptance of service scale. This article discusses these seemingly paradoxical results and their implications for aging policy.     

Emotional intelligence and leadership emergence in small groups

We report the findings from two studies that examine the association between emotional intelligence and leadership emergence in small groups. In both studies, members of groups completed measures of emotional intelligence and other individual differences prior to working on a group project. Their peers rated their leadership emergence at the conclusion of the project. Overall emotional intelligence and a number of its dimensions were associated with leadership emergence over and above cognitive intelligence, personality traits, and gender. These findings were observed when emotional intelligence was measured with an ability test but not when it was measured with a self-report scale. Among the dimensions of emotional intelligence, the ability to understand emotions was most consistently associated with leadership emergence.     

Evaluating the Move to a Linear Tax System in Germany and Other European Countries

This paper proposes a comparison of the results of tax policy analysis obtained on the basis of unitary and collective representations of the household. We first generate labour supplies consistent with the collective rationality, by use of a model calibrated on microdata as described in Vermeulen et al. [Collective Models of Household Labor Supply with Nonconvex Budget Sets and Nonparticipation: A Calibration Approach (2006)]. A unitary model is then estimated on these collective data and unitary and collective responses to a tax reform are compared. We focus on the introduction of linear taxation in Germany. The exercise is replicated for other European countries and other topical reforms. Distortions due to the use of a unitary model turn out to be important in predicting labour supply adjustments, in the design of tax revenue neutral reforms, and in predicting a reform’s welfare implications.

Community reactions to campaigns addressing crystal methamphetamine use among gay and bisexual men in New York City

Crystal methamphetamine (aka "crystal meth") use with high-risk sex has become an emerging health problem for gay and bisexual men in New York City since the late 1990s. Public health campaigns were eventually developed to encourage gay and bisexual men to avoid or reconsider using crystal meth. Reactions to three campaigns were measured with a cross-sectional survey administered in 2004. Among an ethnically-diverse sample of 971 gay and bisexual men, 61.8% reported seeing the campaigns. Those who reported ever using crystal meth, recent use, and recent use with sex were significantly more likely to have seen the campaigns. In general, white men, HIV-negative men, and men not currently using crystal meth responded more positively to the campaigns than their counterparts; yet, more men of color reported having discussions with partners and friends about their crystal use as a result of these campaigns. Implications for researchers and practitioners are discussed.     

Conditional Uncertainty Analysis and Implications for Decision Making: The Case of WIPP

Uncertainty analyses and the reporting of their results can be misinterpreted when these analyses are conditional on a set of assumptions generally intended to bring some conservatism in the decisions. In this paper, two cases of conditional uncertainty analysis are examined. The first case includes studies that result, for instance, in a family of risk curves representing percentiles of the probability distribution of the future frequency of exceeding specified consequence levels conditional on a set of hypotheses. The second case involves analyses that result in an interval of outcomes estimated on the basis of conservative assumptions. Both types of results are difficult to use because they are sometimes misinterpreted as if they represented the output of a full uncertainty analysis. In the first case, the percentiles shown on each risk curve may be taken at face value when in reality (in marginal terms) they are lower if the chosen hypotheses are conservative. In the second case, the fact that some segments of the resulting interval are highly unlikely—or that some more benign segments outside the range of results are quite possible—does not appear. Also, these results are difficult to compare to those of analyses of other risks, possibly competing for the same risk management resources, and the decision criteria have to be adapted to the conservatism of the hypotheses. In this paper, the focus is on the first type (conditional risk curves) more than on the second and the discussion is illustrated by the case of the performance assessment of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant in New Mexico. For policy-making purposes, however, the problems of interpretation, comparison, and use of the results are similar.