A Characterization for the Spherical Scoring Rule

Strictly proper scoring rules have been studied widely in statistical decision theory and recently in experimental economics because of their ability to encourage assessors to honestly provide their true subjective probabilities. In this article, we study the spherical scoring rule by analytically examining some of its properties and providing some new geometric interpretations for this rule. Moreover, we state a theorem which provides an axiomatic characterization for the spherical scoring rule. The objective of this analysis is to provide a better understanding of one of the most commonly available scoring rules, which could aid decision makers in the selection of an appropriate tool for evaluating and assessing probabilistic forecasts.      

Identity,language, and ethnic relations in the Bilingual Autonomous Communities of Spain1

This study surveyed 2446 undergraduates from five Bilingual Autonomous Communities (BAC) of Spain. We propose that the creation of the BAC of Spain in 1978 allowed the development of differing prototypic identities ranging from Spanish only identity, Autonomous only identity, and various permutations of dual Spanish/Autonomous identities. Based on their linguistic and ethnic self‐identifications, the percentage of participants endorsing each prototypic identity was monitored along with their key sociopsychological correlates. Six prototypic identity profiles were obtained. Results indicate that individuals endorsing the Autonomous only (11%) and Spanish only (13%) identities were more likely to engage in problematic intergroup relations. Strong Dual identifiers (9%) are the most likely to act as cultural and linguistic brokers and to foster intergroup harmony. Pro‐Spanish (15%) and Moderate Dual (7%) identifiers are more likely to benefit from language learning in the Autonomous language and emerge as cultural brokers. Esta investigación sondeó 2446 estudiantes de pregrado de cinco Comunidades Autónomas Bilingües (CAB) de España. Proponemos que la creación de las CAB de España en 1978 permitió el desarrollo de diferentes identidades prototípicas que van desde identidades solamente españolas, identidades solamente autónomas hasta varias permutaciones de identidades dobles españolas/autónomas. Basado en sus auto‐identificaciones lingüística y étnica, se observó el porcentaje de participantes que corresponden a cada identidad prototípica y sus correlacionados socio‐psicológicos claves. Se obtuvieron seis perfiles de identidad prototípicos. Los resultados indican que los individuos que asumen una identidad solamente autónoma (11%) y solamente española (13%) tienen más probabilidades de entablar relaciones intergrupales problemáticas. Los que tienen más probabilidades de comportarse como conciliador cultural y lingüístico, y de fomentar armonía intergrupal son los que asumen una fuerte identidad doble (9%). Los que asumen una identidad pro‐española (15%) o una identidad doble moderada (7%) tienen más probabilidades de beneficiar del aprendizaje de la lengua autónoma y se revelaron como conciliador cultural.     

The Effects of Participation and Resources on Democratic Attitudes: Role of Social Capital in Four Latin and South American Countries

ABSTRACT

Social capital research in Latin and South American countries has been gravely limited by the absence of valid measures of social capital. This study seeks to create a scale for measuring social capital in the Latin and South American context using exploratory and confirmatory statistical procedures. It also seeks to test the effect of social capital on democratic attitudes in Latin America through structural equation modeling methods. Analysis of four countries in Latin and South America suggests that social capital is positively related to democratic attitudes. Recommendations for future studies are highlighted, and scale properties and outcomes are discussed.     

Efficacy of a brief intervention on attitudes to reduce school violence: A randomized clinical trial

There is growing interest in the phenomenon of school violence, which has been associated in diverse works with youth's attitudes towards violence, and it has been the focus of many intervention programs. However, the high human and economic cost entailed can impede its administration in some school centers. Therefore, the goal of the present study is to assess the efficacy of a brief intervention aimed at modifying attitudes towards violence to reduce the phenomenon of school bullying. The sample was obtained from a Secondary Education Institute during the 2010–2011 school term, and was made up of 252 students aged between 12 and 15 years. A controlled and randomized design was used in order to assess the effects of the program “Count on Me.” Ten classrooms were randomly assigned either to the intervention or to a waiting-list. Results show a significant reduction of playground violence perceived by the students, especially among the girls. Implications for the development of future brief programs for the prevention of school violence are discussed.     

Global Restructuring,Transmigration and Mexican Rural Women Who Stay Behind: Accommodating,Contesting and Transcending Ideologies

In a time when globalization has escalated the migration of groups of people there is still little known of the families and communities that stay behind. Based on over five years of ethnographic research with campesinas (rural Mexican women) in a highly migratory part of Central Mexico, this article examines the manner in which campesinas who stay behind as their husbands migrate are implicated in global processes. As a result of the movement of spouses to and from the United States new ideas, capital, bodies, and information are introduced that alter the roles and perspectives of women who stay behind. From a gendered glocal framework that links global and local processes and considers power relations stretched across various spaces and amongst gender relations, the author examines how women learn to accommodate, contest, and transcend their transmigrant state and changing ideologies. Women's integration in a non-governmental organization, reliance on family networks and cultural traditions, among others, help maintain their integrity and wholeness as single mothers, group leaders, and community participants.     

A decision support system for modelling and implementing the supply network configuration and operations scheduling problem in the machine tool industry

This paper presents a decision support system to simultaneously solve the supply network configuration problem and the operations scheduling problem for the machine tool industry. A novel database structure, which is able to consider alternative operations and alternative bills of material, has been used. An algorithm for complete enumeration to determine all the feasible solutions using stroke graphs is introduced. A multiagent-based simulator evaluates the different key performance indicators that the supply network deals with for each alternative solution (e.g. workload, profits, delivery times, etc.) to determine that ‘satisficed’ by the collaborative decision-making among its members. A case study based on a Spanish company that assembles highly customised machines and tools in several European plants is considered. From the experiments results based on data linked to this industry, it will be demonstrated that the tool is potentially useful for stakeholders and for the central decision-maker to make decisions collaboratively in a multisite context case.     

The Joint Development of Traditional Bullying and Victimization With Cyber Bullying and Victimization in Adolescence

The present study investigated the stabilities of and interrelationships among traditional (i.e., face‐to‐face) bullying, traditional victimhood, cyber bullying, and cyber victimhood among adolescents over time. About 1,700 adolescents aged 11–16 years at Time 1 self‐reported levels of both bullying and victimization in four contexts (in school, outside of school, texting, and on‐line) annually for 2 years. Results indicated that all four dynamics were moderately stable over time. The following variables were found to bidirectionally reinforce and predict each other over time: traditional bullying and traditional victimization; traditional bullying and cyber bullying; and traditional victimization and cyber victimization. These results indicate that bullying and victimhood in both face‐to‐face and cyber‐based interactions are related but not identical interpersonal dynamics.     

Multidimensional Poverty in Paraguay: Trends from 2000 to 2015

The paper discusses Kenneth C. Land and Alex C. Michalos’ review and assessment of the evolution of research on social indicators, quality of life and well-being over the past fifty years. The contribution deals with the impacts of three major societal changes on the future research agenda of social indicators research: firstly, impacts of the changing class structure of post-industrial society, secondly, globalization impacts, including its economic, political, cultural and institutional dimensions, and thirdly, the impacts of an increasingly networked digitalization of production and consumption.     

Implementing Consumer Choice in Long‐term Care: The Impact of Individual Budgets on Social Care Providers in England

In common with many advanced welfare states, England has increasingly relied on consumerist principles to deliver both greater quality and improved efficiency in the long‐term care system. The Individual Budget (IB) pilots marked the next step in this process, through a new system of funding whereby greater control of resources is given to service users, in lieu of direct in‐kind care provision. IBs have the potential to transform the market for care services as well as the relationships between key stakeholders within it. Purchasing will increasingly be shaped by the demands of IB holders, with providers expected to deliver a wider range of personalized services. What will this mean for providers, and what can they do to prepare for these changes? These questions are relevant not just in England but in many other countries adopting similar mechanisms for devolving control over the design, delivery and funding of care to the end‐user. The article explores the early impact of IBs on providers' services, on their workforces, and on the administrative implications for providers of managing IBs. The study finds that providers were positive about the opportunities for better‐quality services that IBs can bring about. However, participants highlighted a number of obstacles to their effectiveness, and reported a range of potentially adverse administrative and workforce consequences which have the potential to jeopardize the consumerist policy objectives of increased choice and efficiency.     

Some Relationships Between Skew-Normal Distributions and Order Statistics from Exchangeable Normal Random Vectors

The article explores the relationship between distributions of order statistics from random vectors with exchangeable normal distributions and several skewed generalizations of the normal distribution. In particular, we show that the order statistics of exchangeable normal observations have closed skew-normal distributions, and that the corresponding density function is log-concave when the order statistic is extreme. Special attention is given to the bivariate case, which is related to the univariate skew-normal distribution. The applications discussed focus on the lifetimes of coherent systems.