Candidates and Competition: Variability in Ideological Voting in U.S. Senate Elections*

Objectives. In choosing candidates to support in congressional elections, voters consider both policy and nonpolicy factors. However, the relative importance of incumbency or presidential approval versus candidates' ideological platforms likely varies across elections. Specifically, stiffer electoral competition should encourage ideology‐based voting because candidate information is more plentiful. In contrast, incumbents' ability to garner votes simply by virtue of already holding office should depress proximity voting in elections with incumbents. Methods. Using data from the 1988–1992 Pooled Senate Election Study, I estimate logistic regression models of individual vote choice. Results. I find that open‐seat elections do promote the use of candidate ideological proximity in the voting calculus but that the effects of election competitiveness are less clear. Conclusions. The findings have important implications for normative democratic theory, for our constitutional framework, and for elite behavior and aggregate‐level electoral outcomes.     

HOW WELL DO SELECTION MODELS PERFORM? ASSESSING THE ACURACY OF ART AUCTION PRE-SALE ESTIMATES

Art auction catalogs provide a pre-sale prediction interval for the price each item is expected to fetch. When the owner consigns art work to the auction house, a reserve price is agreed upon, which is not announced to the bidders. If the highest bid does not reach it, the item is brought in. Since only the prices of the sold items are published, analysts only have a biased sample to examine due to the selective sale process. Relying on the published data leads to underestimating the forecast error of the pre-sale estimates. However, we were able to obtain several art auction catalogs with the highest bids for the unsold items as well as those of the sold items. With these data we were able to evaluate the accuracy of the predictions of the sale prices or highest bids for all item obtained from the original Heckman selection model that assumed normal error distributions as well as those derived from an alternative model using the t(2) distribution, which yielded a noticeably better fit to several sets of auction data. The measures of prediction accuracy are of more than academic interest as they are used by auction participants to guide their bidding or selling strategy, and similar appraisals are accepted by the US Internal Revenue Services to justify the deductions for charitable contributions donors make on their tax returns.     

An alternate version of the conceptual predictive statistic based on a symmetrized discrepancy measure

The conceptual predictive statistic, C_p, is a widely used criterion for model selection in linear regression. C_p serves as an estimator of a discrepancy, a measure that reflects the disparity between the generating model and a fitted candidate model. This discrepancy, based on scaled squared error loss, is asymmetric: an alternate measure is obtained by reversing the roles of the two models in the definition of the measure. We propose a variant of the C_p statistic based on estimating a symmetrized version of the discrepancy targeted by C_p. We claim that the resulting criterion provides better protection against overfitting than C_p, since the symmetric discrepancy is more sensitive towards detecting overspecification than its asymmetric counterpart. We illustrate our claim by presenting simulation results. Finally, we demonstrate the practical utility of the new criterion by discussing a modeling application based on data collected in a cardiac rehabilitation program at University of Iowa Hospitals and Clinics.     

No Compelling Evidence That Newborns Imitate Oral Gestures

Newborns (N = 83) were presented with 3 conditions, each for 160 sec: tongue protrusion (TP), mouth opening (MO), and control (CO). In TP and MO, a female model alternated between demonstrating the gesture for 20 sec and presenting a passive, motionless face for 20 sec. In CO, she presented a passive face in both the “demonstration” and “passive” intervals. The participants' eyes were more widely open in the demonstration intervals of TP and MO than in the passive intervals, indicating that they were attending to the gestures. In TP, the participants produced more TP responses than MO responses, but in MO there was no effect, undermining the neonatal imitation hypothesis.     

Selection-Based Versus Topography-Based Responding: An Important Distinction for Stimulus Equivalence?

The Analysis of Verbal Behavior - English-speaking subjects were taught 16 English-French word pairs. Within any given trial, one word from each pair was presented; for eight items, subjects were...     

The role of psychotherapy and humor for death anxiety, death wishes, and aging

This article is part of a series of humor on social attitudes (Richmen, 1977), humor by the elderly (Richman, 1989), assessment (Richman, 1996a), and psychotherapy (Richman, 1996b). The present study is based on the topics of humor related to death anxiety and wishes, and aging that emerged during psychotherapy with elderly patients. The healing qualities of laughter and humor have been observed since Biblical times to the present, however the applications of humor to professional psychotherapy is still in its infancy. The examples in this study spell out how humor in therapy can bring people together, and help them affirm life and laugh at anxiety, depression, and their problems in living.