Did fertility go up after the oklahoma city bombing? An analysis of births in metropolitan counties in Oklahoma, 1990–1999

Political and sociocultural events (e.g., Brown v. Board of Education in 1954 and the German reunification in 1989) and natural disasters (e.g., Hurricane Hugo in 1989) can affect fertility. In our research, we addressed the question of whether the Oklahoma City bombing in April 1995, a man-made disaster, influenced fertility patterns in Oklahoma. We defined three theoretical orientations--replacement theory, community influence theory, and terror management theory--that motivate a general expectation of birth increases, with different predictions emerging from time and geographic considerations. We used two different empirical methodologies. First, we fitted dummy-variable regression models to monthly birth data from 1990 to 1999 in metropolitan counties. We used birth counts to frame the problem and general fertility rates to address the problem formally. These analyses were organized within two design structures: a control-group interrupted time-series design and a difference-in-differences design. In these analyses, Oklahoma County showed an interpretable, consistent, and significant increase in births. Second, we used graphical smoothing models to display these effects visually. In combination, these methods provide compelling support for a fertility response to the Oklahoma City bombing. Certain parts of each theory helped us organize and understand the pattern of results.     

A Need-Based Measure of Consumer Well Being (CWB) in Relation to Personal Transportation: Nomological Validation

This paper reports the results of three studies designed to test the nomological validity of a consumer well-being (CWB) measure in relation to personal transportation. The CWB measure was developed guided by the theoretical notion that the CWB in relation to personal transportation vehicles is significantly enhanced when the consumption of the vehicle meets the full spectrum of human developmental needs (i.e., safety, economic, family, social, esteem, actualization, knowledge, and aesthetics needs). The nomological validity of the CWB measure was tested by exploring the various antecedents and consequences of the construct. This was done in three separate studies in which the results of one study prompted further conceptual development and additional testing. The overall findings of the three studies provided support for the nomological validity of the CWB measure.     

Gender difference in physical performance, body composition and dietary intake in homebound elders

Considering that the most vulnerable subgroup of elders for poor nutritional status and functional decline is the increasing number of homebound women, we examined gender differences in physical performance, body composition, and dietary intake in a randomly recruited sample of 345 homebound elders (81% women, 48% black, > 65% income < $750/month). After controlling for demographic and health-related factors, the results from multivariate analyses indicated that women were more likely than men to report the lowest nutrient intake and were 2.9 times more likely to be at the worst level of overall physical performance. These results suggest a heightened vulnerability of homebound older women to poor physical performance, low dietary intake, and increased Body Mass Index (BMI). Prospective research is now needed to examine the interrelationships between physical performance, dietary intake, and body composition among the growing homebound older population.     

The Relationship of Social Support to African American Caregivers' Help-Seeking for Emotional Problems

This study analyzes whether social support serves as a link to or substitute for formal services among African American female caregivers seeking help with emotional problems. It also analyzes other determinants of help-seeking. It relies on data from the Black Rural and Urban Caregivers Mental Health and Functioning Study and is guided by a modified version of the behavioral model of health services use. Using hierarchical binary logistic regression, analyses reveal that only age, stress, and support from fellow church members are statistically significantly associated with the likelihood of help-seeking. These results support the linking hypothesis, suggesting that the social support received by African American women caregivers in the context of their religious organizations helps to link them to services.     

Gambling on the Lottery: Sociodemographic Correlates Across the Lifespan

Two representative U.S. telephone surveys of gambling were conducted—an adult survey of adults aged 18 years and older (n = 2,631) and a youth survey of young people aged 14–21 years old (n = 2,274). Because the questions and methods were the same or similar in both surveys, the data from these two surveys were combined into a single dataset to examine the prevalence and sociodemographic correlates of gambling and problem gambling across the lifespan. The present work focused specifically on gambling on the lottery which is the most prevalent form of gambling in the U.S. The frequency of gambling on the lottery increased sharply from mid adolescence to age 18 which is the legal age to purchase lottery tickets in most states; lottery play continued to increase into the thirties when it leveled off and remained high through the sixties and then decreased among those 70 years and older. Considering multiple sociodemographic factors together in a negative binomial regression, the average number of days of lottery gambling was significantly predicted by male gender, age, neighborhood disadvantage and whether or not lottery was legal in the state where the respondent lived. These findings can be used to inform policies regarding lotteries in the U.S.     

Candidates and Competition: Variability in Ideological Voting in U.S. Senate Elections*

Objectives. In choosing candidates to support in congressional elections, voters consider both policy and nonpolicy factors. However, the relative importance of incumbency or presidential approval versus candidates' ideological platforms likely varies across elections. Specifically, stiffer electoral competition should encourage ideology‐based voting because candidate information is more plentiful. In contrast, incumbents' ability to garner votes simply by virtue of already holding office should depress proximity voting in elections with incumbents. Methods. Using data from the 1988–1992 Pooled Senate Election Study, I estimate logistic regression models of individual vote choice. Results. I find that open‐seat elections do promote the use of candidate ideological proximity in the voting calculus but that the effects of election competitiveness are less clear. Conclusions. The findings have important implications for normative democratic theory, for our constitutional framework, and for elite behavior and aggregate‐level electoral outcomes.