THE EFFECT AND COST OF FORECAST ERROR BIAS FOR MULTIPLE-STAGE PRODUCTION-INVENTORY SYSTEMS

This paper examines forecast error with an intention not to minimize forecast error so much as to bias the resultant error in order to achieve better managerial results. Much work has been accomplished by other researchers toward the goal of minimizing forecast error—sometimes by the use of sophisticated forecasting techniques. The results of this paper indicate that manipulating forecast error bias may be the better managerial strategy as opposed to going to great lengths to minimize forecast error. Subject Areas: Forecasting, Aggregate Planning, Capacity Planning, and Production/Operations Management.     

URBAN TRANSPORTATION MODE CHOICE AND TRIP COMPLEXITY: BICYCLISTS STICK TO THEIR GEARS

Commuters' lives have become more complicated with rising income. In my model, transportation mode choices are made simultaneously with the choice of whether to make multiple stops. Using travel behavior data, I estimate the model using an error components logit (ECL) specification to account for commuters' unobserved preferences for particular modes and find that omitting unobserved preferences underestimates value of travel time relative to the crossing‐components ECL. The estimated model predicts that increased trip complexity causes substitution away from public transit to automobiles, with the exception that bicyclists transition only to more complex trips and do not change transportation modes. (JEL R41, C25)     

Transparency tested: The influence of message features on public perceptions of organizational transparency

The concept of transparency has been promoted within the public relations and business literature as both ethical and advantageous; however, the effectiveness of transparency is seldom empirically put to the test. In particular, the use of clarity, disclosure, and accuracy in organizational messages needs to be empirically examined. To this end, we conducted an online experiment using a 2 (high vs. low message transparency) x 2 (news story placed before or after an organizational statement) between-subjects design. Participants (n?=?357) perceived organizations as more transparent and credible when exposed to messages exhibiting greater levels of clarity, disclosure, and accuracy as opposed to messages that did not. Placement of an information anchor in the form of an objective news story before the organizational message increased the perceived organizational transparency when messages employed transparent design features and decreased the perceived organizational transparency when messages did not use these features. These results provide significant implications for practitioners attempting to convey organizational transparency at the tactical level through message features.     

Relationship building and message planning: An exploration of media challenges and strategies used during school crises at the P-12 level

Schools at the P-12 level increasingly face crises related to school shootings, violence, and other tragedies. Understanding the communication challenges schools face is paramount to assisting schools with communication before, during, and after crisis events. The current study focuses on the challenges created by media interest in such crises and the strategies implemented to overcome these challenges and provide responsible information to stakeholders. Interviews conducted with 21 school crisis teams at the P-12 level revealed that sensationalism, seeking alternative routes to information, and framing were key challenges in working with the media. In light of these challenges, administrators focused on creating media plans, building relationships with the media, being accurate but guarded, and communicating reassurance and reunification. Implications are discussed for school districts nationally.     

Development of the Emergency Department Senior Abuse Identification (ED Senior AID) tool

Emergency departments (EDs) are an important health care setting for the identification of elder abuse (EA). Our objective was to develop an ED-based tool to identify EA. The initial tool included a brief cognitive assessment, questions to detect multiple domains of EA, and a physical examination. Refinement of the tool was based on input from clinical experts and nurse and patient feedback. The revised tool, which included 15 questions about EA, was then tested in an academic ED. We calculated the inter-rater reliability, sensitivity, and specificity of individual EA questions. Among ED patients age≥65 (N = 259), 17 (7%) screened positive for suspicion of EA. We identified a combination of six questions that cover the included domains of EA, demonstrated good or excellent inter-rater reliability, and had a sensitivity and specificity of 94% (95% confidence interval (CI) 71–100%) and 90% (95% CI 85–93%), respectively. These results inform a proposed screening tool for multisite validation testing.     

W.E.B. Du Bois and Filipino/a American exposure programs to the Philippines: race class analysis in an epoch of ‘global apartheid’

The article highlights the ongoing relevance of W.E.B. Du Bois for the global analysis of race and class. Engaging scholarly debates that have ensued within the educational subfields of critical race theory (CRT) and (revolutionary) critical pedagogy, the article explores how a deeper engagement with Du Bois’s ideas contributes theoretically and methodologically to these two subfields. Of particular focus is Du Bois’s conceptualization of a ‘guiding hundredth,’ which he forwarded as a corrective to his ideas of a ‘talented tenth.’ The article also offers a case study analysis of the film Sounds of a New Hope, which documents a hip hop exposure program to the Philippines. The case study draws upon Du Bois’s ‘guiding hundredth’ for a twenty-first century context as a Filipino American cultural worker utilizes hip hop to articulate, analyze, and alter the lived experiences for Filipino/a Americans in a global diaspora.     

Walking a tightrope: reflections on police gatekeeping roles in suicide research in Ghana

Engaging non-conventional gatekeepers such as the police presents both promises and perils. Although studies have relied on police data for researching suicide and other sensitive topics in Africa, there is a paucity of literature that explores or reflects on police gatekeeping and its research implications. This paper presents authors’ reflections on police gatekeeping in a qualitative suicide study in Accra, Ghana. The main observation is that the process was double-edged. On the one hand, it led to field delays and costs, (mis)apprehensions and positionality problems, and trust building challenges. On the other hand, it vouched for research(er) credibility, provided therapeutic openings, and facilitated the viability of research with the suicide bereaved. Sensitivity to research context, sensitising the police, and reinforcing ‘therapeutic-research discourse’ with participants, are recommended means for aligning participants’ goals to research goals and for achieving therapeutic disclosures.     

Techno-Wizardry and movie magic: the trace of labour (or lack thereof) in 3D digital animation

ABSTRACT

This paper will argue that 3D digital animation, unlike its 2D and stop-motion counterparts, currently lacks recognisable self-reflexive aesthetic devices through which the trace of animators’ labour can be made visible. It will open with a brief history of how animation has previously shown its workings; from the pencil-wielding hand of Émile Cohl to the opening seconds of South Park, plus the intentional and unintentional smears and multiples visible on animation cells. These devices will then be discussed in relation to Marx’s analysis of the commodity in Capital Vol. 1, and how the process of fetishisation is momentarily disrupted by imperfections in the object which have been caused by production errors. These faults reconnect the object to its producer through the trace of (imperfect) labour which remains visible on the surface. In animation, similar (albeit consciously made) ‘errors’ connect the perceptive viewer directly to the work of 2D or stop-motion animators. This paper will argue the need for an equivalent to emerge in 3D digital animation, as well as highlighting some contemporary animators testing and subverting the limits of 3D and sketching some possible ways these might encourage further formal innovations.     

Control‐based imputation for sensitivity analyses in informative censoring for recurrent event data

In clinical trials, missing data commonly arise through nonadherence to the randomized treatment or to study procedure. For trials in which recurrent event endpoints are of interests, conventional analyses using the proportional intensity model or the count model assume that the data are missing at random, which cannot be tested using the observed data alone. Thus, sensitivity analyses are recommended. We implement the control‐based multiple imputation as sensitivity analyses for the recurrent event data. We model the recurrent event using a piecewise exponential proportional intensity model with frailty and sample the parameters from the posterior distribution. We impute the number of events after dropped out and correct the variance estimation using a bootstrap procedure. We apply the method to an application of sitagliptin study.