Radiological emergency response for community agencies with cognitive task analysis, risk analysis, and decision support framework

Radiological nuclear emergency responders must be able to coordinate evacuation and relief efforts following the release of radioactive material into populated areas. In order to respond quickly and effectively to a nuclear emergency, high-level coordination is needed between a number of large, independent organizations, including police, military, hazmat, and transportation authorities. Given the complexity, scale, time-pressure, and potential negative consequences inherent in radiological emergency responses, tracking and communicating information that will assist decision makers during a crisis is crucial. The emergency response team at the Angra dos Reis nuclear power facility, located outside of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, presently conducts emergency response simulations once every two years to prepare organizational leaders for real-life emergency situations. However, current exercises are conducted without the aid of electronic or software tools, resulting in possible cognitive overload and delays in decision-making. This paper describes the development of a decision support system employing systems methodologies, including cognitive task analysis and human-machine interface design. The decision support system can aid the coordination team by automating cognitive functions and improving information sharing. A prototype of the design will be evaluated by plant officials in Brazil and incorporated to a future trial run of a response simulation.     

Potential impacts of emerald ash borer invasion on biogeochemical and water cycling in residential landscapes across a metropolitan region

Trees provide important ecological services in cities, yet the vulnerability of the urban forest to massive tree losses from pest outbreaks could threaten those services, with unknown environmental consequences. The outbreak of emerald ash borer is an imminent threat to the ash population in North America. In the Minneapolis?CSaint Paul, Minnesota, metropolitan area, ash trees are present in 50?% of residential landscapes in Ramsey and Anoka Counties. We used a large survey of household activities, a tree inventory, a Household Flux Calculator accounting tool, and a set of annual evapotranspiration measurements, to quantify the current carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus storage in ash trees, the cycling of these elements, and the total evapotranspiration from ash trees in residential areas in the metropolitan region. Ash represented 6?% of the trees in residential areas and the removal of the entire ash population would correspondingly reduce net primary production and carbon sequestration by only a few percent and would have negligible effects on losses of nitrogen and phosphorus from residential landscapes. Similarly, the effects of ash loss on the hydrologic cycle would be minimal and would depend largely on management choices for the ground currently underneath ash tree canopies. Overall, the percentage change in biogeochemical and hydrological fluxes corresponded closely with the percent of the total urban tree population that was represented by ash, suggesting that areas with higher densities of ash would experience correspondingly larger effects. A hypothetical tree replacement scenario with similar broadleaf species was determined to be likely to re-establish the original biogeochemical and hydrological conditions once the replacement trees reach maturity.     

The Organization of Wariness of Heights in Experienced Crawlers

Most infants with more than 6 weeks of crawling experience completely avoid the deep side of a visual cliff ( Campos, Bertenthal, & Kermoian, 1992 ; Gibson & Walk, 1960 ). However, some experienced crawlers do move onto the transparent surface suspended several feet above the ground. An important question is whether these nonavoiders lack wariness of heights or whether they have a qualitatively different way of showing their wariness than do avoiders of the deep side. The current study addressed this question by measuring heart rate (HR) acceleration upon being lowered on the deep and shallow sides of the visual cliff, latency to crawl toward the mother, and tactile exploration of the cliff surface. Nonavoiders and avoiders had indistinguishable patterns of HR acceleration, showing greater HR acceleration when lowered onto the deep than when lowered onto the shallow side of the cliff. Nonavoiders also showed more tactile exploration and longer latencies than did a comparable group of infants tested on the shallow side. This study illustrates how the same emotion, wariness of heights, can be shown by qualitatively different behaviors, all serving the same function of protecting the individual from falling over a drop‐off.     

Lattice and Schröder paths with periodic boundaries

We consider paths in the plane with (1,0$1,0$), (0,1$0,1$), and (a,b$a,b$)-steps that start at the origin, end at height n$n$, and stay strictly to the left of a given non-decreasing right boundary. We show that if the boundary is periodic and has slope at most b/a$b/a$, then the ordinary generating function for the number of such paths ending at height n   is algebraic. Our argument is in two parts. We use a simple combinatorial decomposition to obtain an Appell relation or “umbral” generating function, in which the power zⁿ$z^n$ is replaced by a power series of the form zⁿ_φn(z),$z^n{\phi }_n(z),$ where _φn(0)=1.${\phi }_n(0)=1.$ Then we convert (in an explicit way) the umbral generating function to an ordinary generating function by solving a system of linear equations and a polynomial equation. This conversion implies that the ordinary generating function is algebraic. We give several concrete examples, including an alternative way to solve the tennis ball problem.     

Cluster designs to assess the prevalence of acute malnutrition by lot quality assurance sampling: a validation study by computer simulation

Summary.  Traditional lot quality assurance sampling (LQAS) methods require simple random sampling to guarantee valid results. However, cluster sampling has been proposed to reduce the number of random starting points. This study uses simulations to examine the classification error of two such designs, a 67×3 (67 clusters of three observations) and a 33×6 (33 clusters of six observations) sampling scheme to assess the prevalence of global acute malnutrition (GAM). Further, we explore the use of a 67×3 sequential sampling scheme for LQAS classification of GAM prevalence. Results indicate that, for independent clusters with moderate intracluster correlation for the GAM outcome, the three sampling designs maintain approximate validity for LQAS analysis. Sequential sampling can substantially reduce the average sample size that is required for data collection. The presence of intercluster correlation can impact dramatically the classification error that is associated with LQAS analysis.     

Economy “versus” Environment: The Influence of Economic Ideology and Political Identity on Perceived Threat of Eco‐Catastrophe

Using data from a national survey of American adults, we examine the relationships between economic, political, sociodemographic, and religious characteristics with perception of the potential for eco‐catastrophe. We employ the treadmill of production theory to frame our understanding of views about ecological concerns, arguing that the treadmill discourse associated with economic development is hegemonic and fundamentally shapes public views of eco‐catastrophe. In line with this approach, economic ideology is the strongest predictor of attitudes about eco‐catastrophe, and its influence is conditioned by political identity. There is also significant patterning in these perceptions based on gender, race, education, and religion, but the influence of social characteristics is primarily indirect—mediated by economic ideology and political identity. These results provide useful information for addressing environmental problems in public discourse and bridging policy divides.     

Fingerprint-based background checks for personal care workers: Stakeholder views of policy criteria

Decision makers face difficult choices when tasked with identifying and implementing appropriate mechanisms for protecting the elderly and other vulnerable adults from abuse. A pilot project involving fingerprint-based criminal history background checks for personal care workers in Michigan has supplied an opportunity to examine one such mechanism. In conjunction with the pilot project, we have conducted a stakeholder analysis with the aim of informing decision makers about stakeholder perceptions of standard policy criteria like effectiveness, efficiency, and equity. We employed focus groups and a Web-based survey to collect data from stakeholders. While stakeholders generally see fingerprint-based background checks for personal care workers as potentially effective and as a net benefit, they also point to a variety of contingencies. They also recognize difficulties and constraints for government involvement. This preliminary analysis provides solid foundational information for decision makers and for more extensive benefit–cost analysis.     

Implications of female genital mutilation on girls’ education and psychological wellbeing in Tarime,Tanzania

Though female genital mutilation is widely practiced in Tanzania, there has been no systematic examination of its long-term implications on girls’ wellbeing. Employing interviews and focus group discussions, this study explored the implications of female genital mutilation (FGM) on girls’ wellbeing in Tarime, Tanzania. The results revealed that the effect of FGM on girls are multifaceted, including early marriages, parents’ negative attitudes towards girls’ education, girls’ change in attitudes and loss of interest in schooling, which lead to poor educational achievement in many ways. Notably, girls who manage to escape FGM suffer from isolation and stigma from their peers who have been circumcised. Arguably, FGM is both a protective and risk factor for girls in Tarime. FGM is a protective factor against stigma and isolation for circumcised girls, and it is a risk factor in denying circumcised girls’ opportunities for education, and in perpetuating stigmatisation for the uncircumcised girls. We have concluded that, in the absence of more positive alternative rites of passage for adolescent girls in Tarime, and despite the widespread awareness about its negative consequences, FGM is likely to continue due to its centrality in the Kuryan cultural, social and economic necessities.     

The Impact of Alternative Vendor/ Buyer Communication Structures on the Quality of Purchased Materials

This paper examines the critical interface between manufacturing, purchasing, and quality assurance by exploring the impact of two alternative structures of buyer and vendor communication on attempts to improve the quality of purchased items. Those two structures of communication are the parallel structure and the serial structure. The research analyzes and compares the advantages and disadvantages of these two specific communication structures; the results have implications for both researchers and managers. The analysis of data suggests that the parallel structure is associated with significantly higher levels of quality than the serial structure. From a managerial perspective, the results of the research suggest that manufacturers must consider the parallel communication structure as a viable alternative for improving the quality of purchased components. While this study has helped frame some key managerial issues, the need and opportunity for further research in related areas is delineated.     

The Effects of Minimum Wage Increases on Retail Employment and Hours: New Evidence from Monthly CPS Data

Proponents of state and federal minimum wage increases argue that past minimum wage hikes have not adversely affected retail employment. However, the existing empirical evidence is mixed. This study uses monthly data from the 1979–2004 Current Population Survey to provide new estimates of the effect of minimum wage increases on retail employment and hours worked. The findings suggest evidence of modest adverse effects. A 10% increase in the minimum wage is associated with a 1% decline in retail trade employment and usual weekly hours worked. Larger negative employment and hours effects are observed for the least experienced workers in the retail sector. These results are robust across a number of specifications, but are sensitive to controls for state time trends.