Social Support and Government Policy on Services for the Elderly

Government policy on services for the elderly is to increase the provision of care in the community. This paper examines this policy in relation to informal help received from relatives and friends.
Drawing on the results of a pilot study of 92 people over the age of 75, registered in a group general practice, data are presented on the balance between informal and formal help over a group of activities of daily livhg. The main informal helpers are described with the range of activities for which people in the study were receiving assistance.
Community services are, at present, limited in the help they can provide for people in their own homes. If policies of community care are to be successful, then they must take into account the strengths and weaknesses of informal support. Using the data presented, suggestions are made a bout improvements in services including task specific services not currently provided and the definition of groups at risk of their social support breaking down.     

Lloyd's Financial Distress and Contagion within the US Property and Liability Insurance Industry

The intra-industry effect of Lloyd's financial distress on publicly traded US insurance companies is examined. Given Lloyd's prominence in the international insurance industry, large losses raised questions about the industry's capacity for certain types of risks and the financial solvency of other insurers. The market value of US property-liability insurers fell significantly at the announcement. This decline is related to the firm's revenues from insurance and reinsurance exposure. Results support contagion between Lloyd's distress and the US insurance industry. The study raises concerns about the potential for a systematic disruption of the supply of reinsurance in the international marketplace.     

Asymptotic separability in sensitivity analysis

In an observational study in which each treated subject is matched to several untreated controls by using observed pretreatment covariates, a sensitivity analysis asks how hidden biases due to unobserved covariates might alter the conclusions. The bounds required for a sensitivity analysis are the solution to an optimization problem. In general, this optimization problem is not separable, in the sense that one cannot find the needed optimum by performing a separate optimization in each matched set and combining the results. We show, however, that this optimization problem is asymptotically separable, so that when there are many matched sets a separate optimization may be performed in each matched set and the results combined to yield the correct optimum with negligible error. This is true when the Wilcoxon rank sum test or the Hodges-Lehmann aligned rank test is applied in matching with multiple controls. Numerical calculations show that the asymptotic approximation performs well with as few as 10 matched sets. In the case of the rank sum test, a table is given containing the separable solution. With this table, only simple arithmetic is required to conduct the sensitivity analysis. The method also supplies estimates, such as the Hodges-Lehmann estimate, and confidence intervals associated with rank tests. The method is illustrated in a study of dropping out of US high schools and the effects on cognitive test scores.     

Models for survival data from cancer prevention studies

Summary. We propose a new parametric survival model for cancer prevention studies. The formulation of the model is in the spirit of stochastic modelling of the occurrences of tumours through two stages: initiation of an undetected tumour and promotion of the tumour to a detectable cancer. Several novel properties of the model proposed are derived. In addition, we examine the relationship of our model with the existing lagged regression model of Zucker and Lakatos. Also, we bridge the difference between two distinct stochastic modelling methods for cancer data, one used primarily for cancer therapeutic trials and the other used for cancer prevention trials.     

Bayesian optimal blocking of factorial designs

The presence of block effects makes the optimal selection of fractional factorial designs a difficult task. The existing frequentist methods try to combine treatment and block wordlength patterns and apply minimum aberration criterion to find the optimal design. However, ambiguities exist in combining the two wordlength patterns and therefore, the optimality of such designs can be challenged. Here we propose a Bayesian approach to overcome this problem. The main technique is to postulate a model and a prior distribution to satisfy the common assumptions in blocking and then, to develop an optimal design criterion for the efficient estimation of treatment effects. We apply our method to develop regular, nonregular, and mixed-level blocked designs. Several examples are presented to illustrate the advantages of the proposed method.     

The Great Interview: 25 Strategies for Studying People in Bed

Interviewing is among the most central methods in social science research. While common as a method, there are identifiable characteristics that distinguish good interviews from outstanding ones. Great interviewing is deceptively difficult, partly because it is an acquired ability that takes time to develop, partly because people often remain bound to conventional norms of behavior while interviewing that precludes open access to the people interviewed. While several texts are available on interviewing, few of them venture to draw the explicit distinction among characteristics that separate ordinary from outstanding interviews. Consequently, a concise and accessible guidepost that directs people to the essentials of outstanding interviewing is difficult to find. Based on interviews with a range of people about varied subjects, the author offers 25 directions that will, when followed in combination, point the interviewer along the road from the good (or not-so-good) interview to the great interview.     

Hybrid methods for calculating optimal few-stage sequential strategies: Data monitoring for a clinical trial

Optimal batch-sequential designs are difficult to compute, even when sufficient statistics and relatively uncomplicated loss functions simplify the calculations required. While backward induction applies, its difficulty grows exponentially in the number of stages, while a recently developed forward algorithm grows only linearly, but involves a maximization over a rather flat surface. This paper explores a hybrid algorithm, partially backward induction, partially forward, that has some of the advantages of each.     

The Other‐Race Effect in Infancy: Evidence Using a Morphing Technique

Human adults are more accurate at discriminating faces from their own race than faces from another race. This other‐race effect (ORE) has been characterized as a reflection of face processing specialization arising from differential experience with own‐race faces. We examined whether 3.5‐month‐old infants exhibit ORE using morphed faces on which adults had displayed a crossover ORE (i.e., Caucasians performed better on Caucasian faces and Asians performed better on Asian faces). In this experiment, Caucasian infants who had grown up in a predominantly Caucasian environment discriminated 100% Caucasian faces from 70% Caucasian/30% Asian morphed faces but failed to discriminate between the corresponding 100% Asian and 70% Asian/30% Caucasian faces. Thus, 3.5‐month‐olds exhibited evidence of ORE. These results indicate that at least by 3.5 months of age, infants have attained enough face processing expertise to process familiar‐race faces in a different manner than unfamiliar‐race faces.     

A Multi-Method Impact Evaluation of a Therapeutic Summer Camp Program

This article reports on a multi-method impact evaluation of a therapeutic summer camp program for children and youth with learning disabilities and related psychosocial problems. The study examines the degree to which program objectives were achieved through a pre-camp, post-camp, follow-up design using a series of standardized instruments, camp evaluations, and interviews with parents. The results indicate that the campers reported less social isolation, experienced modest improvements in self-esteem, and expressed high levels of satisfaction with the camp. The measures for social skills generally failed to register significant changes, although parents reported improvements in the areas of cooperation, responsibility, and self-control.     

Accessibility and the coping behaviour of the non-employed people in Hong Kong

This paper presents a framework for investigation of the accessibility and coping behaviour of non-employed people in Hong Kong. Based on structuration theory, the accessibility of an individual is regarded as the product of their travel coping behaviour and social systems across time and space. The social systems (e.g., public transport, household responsibility) are both the media and outcome of the individual's daily trips. Survey findings indicate that in the face of accessibility constraints from social systems, people develop various forms of coping behaviour to improve their accessibility, such as by having fewer children, living away from their elderly parents, and living in urban areas to reduce travel time and gain a normative duration for activities. The government must change social systems to facilitate these recursive travel patterns. Thus, structuration theory can be used to improve urban transport planning.