Birds of a feather: Estimating the value of statistical life from dual-earner families

Journal of Risk and Uncertainty - Economists have long employed hedonic wage analysis to estimate income-fatality risk trade-offs, but some scholars have raised concerns about systematic...     

Performance of Variable Selection Methods in Regression Using Variations of the Bayesian Information Criterion

The Bayesian information criterion (BIC) is widely used for variable selection. We focus on the regression setting for which variations of the BIC have been proposed. A version that includes the Fisher Information matrix of the predictor variables performed best in one published study. In this article, we extend the evaluation, introduce a performance measure involving how closely posterior probabilities are approximated, and conclude that the version that includes the Fisher Information often favors regression models having more predictors, depending on the scale and correlation structure of the predictor matrix. In the image analysis application that we describe, we therefore prefer the standard BIC approximation because of its relative simplicity and competitive performance at approximating the true posterior probabilities.     

Comparison of Operating Characteristics of Commonly Used Sample Size Re-Estimation Procedures in a Two-Stage Design

In group sequential clinical trials, there are several sample size re-estimation methods proposed in the literature that allow for change of sample size at the interim analysis. Most of these methods are based on either the conditional error function or the interim effect size. Our simulation studies compared the operating characteristics of three commonly used sample size re-estimation methods, Chen et al. (2004), Cui et al. (1999), and Muller and Schafer (2001). Gao et al. (2008) extended the CDL method and provided an analytical expression of lower and upper threshold of conditional power where the type I error is preserved. Recently, Mehta and Pocock (2010) extensively discussed that the real benefit of the adaptive approach is to invest the sample size resources in stages and increasing the sample size only if the interim results are in the so called “promising zone” which they define in their article. We incorporated this concept in our simulations while comparing the three methods. To test the robustness of these methods, we explored the impact of incorrect variance assumption on the operating characteristics. We found that the operating characteristics of the three methods are very comparable. In addition, the concept of promising zone, as suggested by MP, gives the desired power and smaller average sample size, and thus increases the efficiency of the trial design.     

Incremental-decremental rolling window double exponential smoothing

Abstract

By modeling double exponential smoothing as a weighted directed acyclic graph, we design an implementation of rolling window double exponential smoothing which is incremental-decremental in the sense that points can be added to and removed from the window with overhead and computation independent of the window size. This has applications to real-time streaming analytics systems having certain universality and flexibility requirements.     

Analytical Characterization of the Information Matrix for Split-Plot Designs

This article provides the analytical characterization of the inverse of the information matrix for second-order SPD. A particular feature of these explicit expressions is that they are functions of the design parameters enabling the development of analytical functions to efficiently compute exact design optimality criteria. The application of these analytical expressions is demonstrated using the generalized variance of the parameter estimates for second-order SPD. An example illustrating the use of these expressions is also presented.     

Regression with outlier shrinkage

We propose a robust regression method called regression with outlier shrinkage (ROS) for the traditional n>p$n>p$ cases. It improves over the other robust regression methods such as least trimmed squares (LTS) in the sense that it can achieve maximum breakdown value and full asymptotic efficiency simultaneously. Moreover, its computational complexity is no more than that of LTS. We also propose a sparse estimator, called sparse regression with outlier shrinkage (SROS), for robust variable selection and estimation. It is proven that SROS can not only give consistent selection but also estimate the nonzero coefficients with full asymptotic efficiency under the normal model. In addition, we introduce a concept of nearly regression equivariant estimator for understanding the breakdown properties of sparse estimators, and prove that SROS achieves the maximum breakdown value of nearly regression equivariant estimators. Numerical examples are presented to illustrate our methods.     

Large Sample Theory for the Bounds on the Gini and Related Indices of Inequality Estimated From Grouped Data

The joint asymptotic distribution of the upper and lower bounds for the Gini index derived by Gastwirth for grouped data are obtained. From them a conservative asymptotically distribution-free confidence interval for the population Gini index is presented. The methods also yield similar results for other indices of inequality (e.g., Theil's and Atkinson's).     

Abstruse and Insecure? Irish Immigrant Identity in Modern Scotland

This paper will look at the religious and political identities that for many people have come to characterize Scottish football. Such a characterization is particularly evident in the case of the two major clubs in Scotland; the 'Old Firm ' of Glasgow Rangers and Celtic. Nonetheless, Scotland is not unique in its sport acquiring an extrasporting dimension and football in particular often has broader political resonance. As Hoberman opines (in Sugden and Bairner, 1993, p. 10), sport has no intrinsic value structure, but it is a ready and flexible vehicle through which ideological associations can be reinforced. Put another way, sport can becom e an important pointer to features of the wider society. It can reflect both the positive and negative features of a society as well as feed aspects of those features. For many people, sport, particularly football, has acquired the capacity to become both a source for, and a reflection of, important social, political and cultural identities. This article argues that such identities are intrinsic to Scottish football. Football is also sym ptomatic of the ongoing conflicts of identity that have become important to Scottish life, especially since the influx of Catholic im migrants from Ireland began in the middle of the nineteenth century.     

Green supply chain management innovation diffusion and its relationship to organizational improvement: An ecological modernization perspective

Drawing on diffusion of innovation and ecological modernization theories, we identify three types of industrial manufacturers, namely early adopters, followers, and laggards, based on the adoption of green supply chain management (GSCM) practices among Chinese manufacturers. Test results indicate that differences exist between the three types of GSCM adopters in terms of their environmental, operational, and economic performance. Understanding how Chinese manufacturers adopt GSCM practices and if this adoption affects their performance contributes theoretical advancement to the diffusion of innovation theory. Practically, the results provide managerial insights for manufacturers to benchmark for environmental management practices and performance improvement.