New Cohort Fertility Forecasts for the Developed World: Rises,Falls, and Reversals

With period fertility having risen in many low‐fertility countries, an important emerging question is whether cohort fertility trends are also reversing. We produce new estimates of cohort fertility for 37 developed countries using a new, simple method that avoids the underestimation typical of previous approaches. Consistent with the idea that timing changes were largely responsible for the last decades' low period fertility, we find that family size has remained considerably higher than the period rates of 1.5 in many “low‐fertility” countries, averaging about 1.8 children. Our forecasts suggest that the long‐term decline in cohort fertility is flattening or reversing in many world regions previously characterized by low fertility. We document the marked increase of cohort fertility in the English‐speaking world and in Scandinavia; signs of an upward reversal in many low‐fertility countries, including Japan and Germany; and continued declines in countries such as Taiwan and Portugal. We include in our forecasts estimates of statistical uncertainty and the possible effects of the recent economic recession.     

When Parenting Pays Off: Influences of Parental Financial Socialization on Children’s Outcomes in Emerging Adulthood

This study examined the influences of parental financial socialization during adolescence on emerging adults’ financial outcomes using Family Financial Socialization Theory. It utilized two waves of data from 307 triads—consisting of parents and emerging adults—from a large city in the Pacific Northwest of the United States. Time one was reported in 2012 by fathers and mothers when their 13 to 17-year-old children were adolescents and time two in 2017 by their emerging adult children 5 years later. Results of path analyses revealed that responsible parental financial behavior at Time 1 predicted greater financial satisfaction and lower financial independence for their emerging-adult children at Time 2. In addition, parental financial distress at Time 1 predicted lower financial satisfaction, higher financial distress, and higher financial independence for their children at Time 2. Implications for practitioners, educators, and parents are discussed.

     

ON FRUITFUL AND FUTILE TESTS OF THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN SEARCH AND PRICE DISPERSION

We exploit cross‐sectional and temporal differences in search intensity in order to examine the relationship between search costs and price dispersion using a hand‐collected panel data set from Jerusalem's Shuk Mahane Yehuda outdoor market. We present empirical evidence that price dispersion increases with the cost of search using several different measures of price dispersion; however, our interpretation of this finding is sensitive to the search proxy in question. We also address several acute difficulties facing empiricists seeking to test theoretical price‐dispersion models in which consumers are heterogeneous in their search behavior. (JEL L11, L13)     

Best Practice Guidelines on Publishing Ethics: A Publisher's Perspective, 2nd Edition*

Wiley has updated its publishing ethics guidelines, first published in 2006. The new guidelines provide guidance, resources, and practical advice on ethical concerns that arise in academic publishing for editors, authors, and researchers, among other audiences. New guidance is also included on whistle blowers, animal research, clinical research, and clinical trial registration, addressing cultural differences, human rights, and confidentiality. The guidelines are uniquely interdisciplinary, and were reviewed by 24 editors and experts chosen from the wide range of communities that Wiley serves. They are also published in Advanced Materials, Headache, Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, International Journal of Clinical Practice, and on the website http://exchanges.wiley.com/ethicsguidelines .     

A FEW GOODMEN: SURNAME‐SHARING ECONOMIST COAUTHORS

We explore the phenomenon of coauthorship by economists who share a surname. Prior research has included at most three economist coauthors who share a surname. Ours is the first paper to have four economist coauthors who share a surname, as well as the first where such coauthors are unrelated by marriage, blood, or current campus. (JEL Y9)     

Developments in Neurosociology

Neurosociology is a multilevel, integrative perspective that does not replace, but rather strengthens and is strengthened by, more established sociological traditions. It is a tract of common ground with the neurosciences and other “neuro friendly” social sciences, and so it heralds an exciting period of discovery through an unprecedented synthesis of ideas. To facilitate the continued progress of neurosociology, we address two pressing goals. First, we aim to help sociologists better understand and appreciate the unique and important benefits of thinking neurosociologically. We describe several programs of research in social psychology where the benefits of a neurosociological approach are already being delivered. We show how “interdisciplinarity” involving sociology and neuroscience can (i) contribute to answering nagging questions at the nexus of method and theory, (ii) stimulate theoretical progress by allowing us to take new angles on old problems, and (iii) help us develop useful practical applications. Second, we discuss the need to make the tools of the neurosciences more accessible to sociologists. Interdisciplinary trends are occurring that will take us part of the way, but much of the work is still left to us. We provide some suggestions to help interested colleagues access the means to conduct neurosociological research.     

Long‐Range Population Projections Made Simple

Recent developments in mathematical demography offer a new, simple means of producing long‐range population projections. The well‐known extant such projections, produced by the United Nations, the World Bank, and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, rely on elaborate cohort‐component projection methods that require a large number of detailed assumptions and are difficult to replicate. Building upon recent results in the formal demography of nonstable populations, the authors show that analytic methods produce estimates of future population size very similar to those obtained through traditional methods. Simplicity is a virtue in making projections, allowing sensitivity tests of assumptions and avoiding the misleading impression of precision associated with more complicated methods. Cohort‐component methods should still be used for short‐ and medium‐term forecasts and projections. For the long term, however, analytic methods should supplement or even replace traditional projections.     

提高英语专业学生口语有效输出能力的探讨

以参加英语口语课堂活动的英语专业学生为研究对象,通过访谈、问卷、口语测试和课堂观察等方法,收集口语输出活动过程中的真实材料,并进行学生输出障碍分析。发现"可理解输出"未必是"有效输出"。情感过滤、课堂输出活动方式和学生的语用能力是影响课堂教学环境下学生口语有效输出的主要因素。认为情感支持、元语言环境下的话语互动和课堂语用教学是促进有效的口语输出、提高英语口语能力的重要策略。