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1.
We describe a risk-based analytical framework for estimating traffic fatalities that combines the probability of a crash and the probability of fatality in the event of a crash. As an illustrative application, we use the methodology to explore the role of vehicle mix and vehicle prevalence on long-run fatality trends for a range of transportation growth scenarios that may be relevant to developing societies. We assume crash rates between different road users are proportional to their roadway use and estimate case fatality ratios (CFRs) for the different vehicle-vehicle and vehicle-pedestrian combinations. We find that in the absence of road safety interventions, the historical trend of initially rising and then falling fatalities observed in industrialized nations occurred only if motorization was through car ownership. In all other cases studied (scenarios dominated by scooter use, bus use, and mixed use), traffic fatalities rose monotonically. Fatalities per vehicle had a falling trend similar to that observed in historical data from industrialized nations. Regional adaptations of the model validated with local data can be used to evaluate the impacts of transportation planning and safety interventions, such as helmets, seat belts, and enforcement of traffic laws, on traffic fatalities. 相似文献
2.
Joshua Gamson 《Sociological Forum》1996,11(2):231-261
Using information gathered during fieldwork on New York lesbian and gay film festival organizations, this paper argues that
scholarship on identity has not paid sufficient attention to the organizational mediation of collective identity. The shape
of collective identity—how internal instabilities and diversities are accommodated, in this case—depends not only on the emergent
characteristics of the “collective,” but also on the resolution of challenges particular to organizational fields. Two very
differently conceived lesbian and gay festival organizations, sites at which decision making about collective identity is
ongoing and self-conscious, are examined. The analysis traces how each responds to two related tasks: maintaining community
legitimacy, which requires racial diversification, and surviving within an altered institutional environment. Rather than
imposition from “above” or construction from “below,” the adaptive responses by organizations (to changes in both community
expectations and the resource environment) transform the collective identity formulations reaching public visibility.
Earlier versions of this paper were presented at the Colloquium Series of the Center for Lesbian and Gay Studies, City University
of New York, 1995, and at the Annual Meeting of the American Sociological Association, Washington, DC, 1995. 相似文献
3.
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Joshua Goldstein 《Journal of historical sociology》1998,11(2):153-184
This paper examines how the Chinese state's prenatal health care campaigns of the early 1950s attempted to redefine women's social and political roles. The replacement of local midwifing practices with a uniform birthing method in order to radically reduce infant and mother mortality entailed complex ramifications regarding the relationship of women vis-a-vis the state. Campaigns involved demonizing "traditional" midwifing, promoting a statistical vision of female reproductivity and children as national resources, and the isolation of individual mothers as directly responsible to the state for managing reproduction for the national interest. In sum, a physiological definition of gender was used to open women's bodies to state management. Utopic visions of painless childbirth and of the socialist nation as a giant new family were used to promote participation in grassroots campaigns, but the sources also point to forms of local resistance to the micro-level reorganization of power these campaigns intended. 相似文献
5.
Who is a Distracted Driver? Associations between Mobile Phone Use while Driving,Domain‐Specific Risk Taking,and Personality
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Madison Sween Andrea Ceschi Francesco Tommasi Riccardo Sartori Joshua Weller 《Risk analysis》2017,37(11):2119-2131
Mobile phone use while driving (MPUWD) is an increasingly common form of distracted driving. Given its widespread prevalence, it is important for researchers to identify factors that may predict who is more likely to engage in this risky behavior. The current study investigates associations between MPUWD risk behaviors, domain‐specific risk perceptions, and broad personality dimensions. An Italian community sample (n = 804) completed a survey regarding MPUWD risk perceptions and engagement in MPUWD, in addition to the HEXACO‐PI‐R, a broad six‐factor personality inventory (honesty‐humility, emotionality, extraversion, agreeableness, conscientiousness, openness to experience), and the DOSPERT, a six‐factor domain‐specific self‐report risk‐taking measure (health/safety, recreational, social, ethical, gambling, and investment). With respect to domain‐specific risk taking, greater frequency of SMS use while driving most strongly was associated with greater risk taking for the health/safety, gambling, and ethical risk domains. Further, greater honesty‐humility and conscientiousness, two traits related to cognitive control and risk behaviors, and to a lesser extent openness to experience, were associated with less frequent MPUWD, and positively associated with MPUWD risk perceptions. With growing public safety concern surrounding MPUWD, understanding associated personality factors is not only important for identifying psychological mechanisms underlying risk behavior, but also for more effective prevention and intervention programs. 相似文献
6.
Robert C. Cope Joshua V. Ross Talia A. Wittmann Michael J. Watts Phillip Cassey 《Risk analysis》2019,39(1):35-53
Understanding the risk of biological invasions associated with particular transport pathways and source regions is critical for implementing effective biosecurity management. This may require both a model for physical connectedness between regions, and a measure of environmental similarity, so as to quantify the potential for a species to be transported from a given region and to survive at a destination region. We present an analysis of integrated biosecurity risk into Australia, based on flights and shipping data from each global geopolitical region, and an adaptation of the “range bagging” method to determine environmental matching between regions. Here, we describe global patterns of environmental matching and highlight those regions with many physical connections. We classify patterns of global invasion risk (high to low) into Australian states and territories. We validate our analysis by comparison with global presence data for 844 phytophagous insect pest species, and produce a list of high‐risk species not previously known to be present in Australia. We determined that, of the insect pest species used for validation, the species most likely to be present in Australia were those also present in geopolitical regions with high transport connectivity to Australia, and those regions that were geographically close, and had similar environments. 相似文献
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8.
Although they have increased exponentially since the 1960s, social scientists know little about ethnic advocacy organizations. These nonprofits are important bridges between underresourced communities and mainstream funding organizations and their directors are established ethnic leaders. Sociologists study interlocking directorates—or shared board membership—to understand how organizations fit together within broader social networks. Network concepts, particularly the theory of institutional isomorphism, suggest that organizations are likely to be similar to the extent they are connected and operate within a common organizational field. We apply this logic to Latino advocacy organizations to examine the underlying source of cohesion across this ethnic field. We ask whether the organizations are tied by interlocking directorates of ethnic elites who sit on their boards of directors or if board members' common affiliation with other elite institutions creates the structural conditions that facilitate potential ideological or behavioral similarity. A social network analysis of five prominent Latino advocacy organizations reveals support for both hypotheses: Latino board members are both embedded in ethnic‐based networks and entrenched within elite organizational webs. This suggests that ethnic elites who sit on the boards of Latino advocacy organizations are also corporate elites, selected for the social capital they bring to these nonprofits. 相似文献
9.
The cross-entropy (CE) method is an adaptive importance sampling procedure that has been successfully applied to a diverse range of complicated simulation problems. However, recent research has shown that in some high-dimensional settings, the likelihood ratio degeneracy problem becomes severe and the importance sampling estimator obtained from the CE algorithm becomes unreliable. We consider a variation of the CE method whose performance does not deteriorate as the dimension of the problem increases. We then illustrate the algorithm via a high-dimensional estimation problem in risk management. 相似文献
10.
Urban Ecosystems - Private residential property occupies a major part of the urban land base, yet considerable potential remains for improving the ecological performance of private gardens and... 相似文献