重大疫情下基于系统动力学的网络舆情应急响应研究

SARS和新型冠状肺炎等重大疫情催生的负面网络舆情容易引发物价飞涨、民众恐慌等次生效应,造成巨大社会危害。洞悉舆情传播规律,利用政务新媒体及时引导与控制其演化趋势,对控制疫情、稳定经济社会秩序具有重要意义。文章基于“情景—回应”视角,利用COVID-19期间的十五次舆情事件数据建立系统动力学仿真模型。基于“逆向回归法”,进一步提高模型的仿真效果。以“接子回荆”事件为例,文章通过建模、仿真、分析,验证了模型的有效性。对政务新媒体回应策略进行模拟分析,结果表明：政务新媒体的回应频率和媒体的影响力程度会对舆情热度产生非线性影响;政务新媒体的回应速度会对舆情的峰值、谷值以及生命周期产生较大影响。     

儒家宗教传统与孔、孟宗教观的比较

儒家是形成于春秋时代的学术流派,但“儒”又是西周就存在的低级宗教官员。孔子从维护周礼的道德理性出发,排斥鬼神巫术;而战国时期的孟子则要寻找改朝换代的天命依据。与孔子罕言天命不同,孟子极力昌谈天道性命。这种儒家学派的内在差异,只能用他们面临的不同历史任务来说明。     

中国城市生猪规模养殖模式的生产率变动分析

运用基于两阶段DEA的Malmquist生产率指数模型,分析2001—2008年中国城市生猪规模养殖模式的全要素生产率指数,得出结论：全国城市TFP增长率总体上呈＂V＂状,平均增长率为负;技术进步效率退化是造成生产率负增长的主要因素;产业风险是造成生产率剧烈波动的根本原因。提出建议：因地制宜,合理布局;品种引进,品种选育;技术培训,科学饲养;生猪保险,生猪期货。     

新疆南疆兵团人力资源结构与经济增长的关联分析

本文以新疆南部兵团经济发展过程中的人力资源作为研究对象,通过对人口规模、农业人口、就业人员数及就业人员产业结构的系统分析。了解人力资源结构与产业结构之间的关系及存在的问题,在此基础上依据实际情况及产业结构调整的方向,就如何妥善处理协调人力资源、经济结构与可持续发展三者之间的关系提供有针对性的可行建议。主要结论：（1）南疆过低的人口比例不利于团场小城镇建设,更不利于发挥维护新疆社会稳定、威慑“三股势力”的重要作用和劳动力的资源储备。（2）南疆兵团产业结构、就业结构与劳动生产率的关系不很匹配．阻碍了农村刺余劳动力的转移。（3）南疆兵团就业结构中一产就业人数比重偏大。非农产业的就业机会严重不足,已成为制约新疆南部经济发展的最大因素。     

论伊斯兰教孝理念的当代价值

鸦有反哺之义,羊有跪乳之恩,如果说孝仅仅是一种文化,或优良传统,这是过于片面的,因为孝还有其他的社会功能,在伊斯兰伦理体系中把孝提到信仰的高度,认为行孝不仅是人道的一种体现,也是接近天道的一种途径。伊斯兰赋予孝特殊的内涵和意义,在老龄社会加速的中国,在构建和谐社会的今天,研究伊斯兰教孝理念,有着重要的价值。     

Testing the Parent–Adolescent Acculturation Discrepancy Hypothesis: A Five‐Wave Longitudinal Study

This 2½‐year, 5‐wave longitudinal study tests the hypothesis that acculturation discrepancies between Hispanic immigrant parents and adolescents would lead to compromised family functioning, which would then lead to problematic adolescent outcomes. Recent‐immigrant Hispanic parent–adolescent dyads (N = 302) completed measures of acculturation and family functioning. Adolescents completed measures of positive youth development, depressive symptoms, problem behavior, and substance use. Results indicated that Time 1 discrepancies in Hispanic culture retention, and linear trajectories in some of these discrepancies, negatively predicted adolescent positive youth development, and positively predicted adolescent depressive symptoms and binge drinking, indirectly through adolescent‐reported family functioning. The vast majority of effects were mediated rather than direct, supporting the acculturation discrepancy hypothesis. Implications for further research and intervention are discussed.     

Expanded answers to bureaucratic questions: Negotiating access to public healthcare

This article analyzes expanded responses to statistical‐epidemiological questions at a mental health outpatient service at a public hospital in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Bureaucratic questioning is a highly routine activity which supplies information to the biopolitical apparatus of the modern State. We understand that expanded answers are meaningful actions which not only serve individual, local tactics (such as raising personal concerns), but also index higher contextual levels. In this sense, resisting the constraints of a question may also imply resisting State‐defined policies of biopolitical classification and exclusion. We examine, from a discursive interactional point of view, 41 admission interviews held at the outpatient mental health care service. We observe four types of expanded answers which: (a) display competence in bureaucratic discourse; (b) move from the sphere of the public to the private; (c) deal with potential face‐threats; and (d) pre‐empt rejection. Although the former is actually an optimized way of collaboration with the biopolitical order, the latter three types can be seen as actions of resistance to classification, not only symbolically but also in material terms: resisting statistical criteria of exclusion allows clients to negotiate access to mental healthcare.     

加快完善上海社会养老服务体系的思考

上海人口老龄化进入时期早、加剧速度快、影响时间长,且高龄化、少子化特征明显,只有充足的养老服务供给和较高的养老服务水平作为支撑,才能应对未来养老服务的需求压力。上海应充分发挥改革创新精神,遵循"事业与产业并重,以事业为基础,以产业为支撑"的基本原则,立足"9073"基本养老服务格局,进一步强化养老事业,全面布局养老产业,通过"体系、制度、产业、智慧养老、队伍"的建设,逐步完善符合特大型城市人口老龄化发展特征,满足各类老年群体养老服务需求的,全面覆盖的社会养老服务体系,全面提升养老服务能力和水平。     

网络文化与社会秩序构建

网络文化作为现实社会在网络空间中的影射,终究无法超越现实的制约。网络文化乱象折射出现实社会传统诉求渠道狭窄不畅等问题,其根源在于现实中社会生存危机和社会冲突加剧,即社会秩序运行尚未处在一个温和而良性互动的发展轨道之上。因此,研究和分析社会秩序的实现状态和应然结构将成为该研究的基础,欲实现社会秩序的良性发展就必须达到实际秩序与规范性秩序互助前行的社会治理状态。就我国目前的网络文化现状而言,将管理秩序与公民自由置于同等重要的地位是网络监管应该坚持的基本理念;其次,规范政府、网络中间商和网民在网络中的政治参与行为,使之建立在彼此理性互谅的基础之上;还有,网络媒体应竭其所能为网民提供客观而全面的舆论信息,正确引领网络舆论导向。     

Ergonomics principles to design clothing work for electrical workers in Colombia

The recent development of the Colombian legislation, have been identified the need to develop protective clothing to work according to specifications from the work done and in compliance with international standards. These involve the development and design of new strategies and measures for work clothing design. In this study we analyzes the activities of the workers in the electrical sector, the method analyzes the risks activity data in various activities, that activities include power generation plants, local facilities, industrial facilities and maintenance of urban and rural networks. The analyses method is focused on ergonomic approach, risk analysis is done, we evaluate the role of security expert and we use a design algorithm developed for this purpose. The result of this study is the identification of constraints and variables that contribute to the development of a model of analysis that leads to the development the work protective clothes.