Semiparametric non-linear time series model selection

Summary.  Semiparametric time series regression is often used without checking its suitability, resulting in an unnecessarily complicated model. In practice, one may encounter computational difficulties caused by the curse of dimensionality. The paper suggests that to provide more precise predictions we need to choose the most significant regressors for both the parametric and the nonparametric time series components. We develop a novel cross-validation-based model selection procedure for the simultaneous choice of both the parametric and the nonparametric time series components, and we establish some asymptotic properties of the model selection procedure proposed. In addition, we demonstrate how to implement it by using both simulated and real examples. Our empirical studies show that the procedure works well.     

Sodium cromoglicate: an ineffective drug or meta‐analysis misused?

Sodium cromoglicate (SCG) has been available since around 1970 for the treatment of asthma and other allergic disorders in both adults and children. It has been approved for use around the world. Over the period of its development, a number of different formulations were introduced. In 1999, a systematic review of SCG use in childhood asthma was carried out and reported initially as a poster. Further systematic reviews and papers followed from the same authors and finally a Cochrane Collaboration review was published in 2003. All concluded that SCG was ineffective in paediatric asthma. Both the British Thoracic Society Guidelines for the treatment of paediatric asthma and the Model List of Essential Drugs of the WHO now reflect these conclusions. This paper looks carefully at the conclusions of these systematic reviews and raises concerns about the interpretation of the results. These failed to take adequate account of the changes with time in both the formulations used and the age groups examined, and also failed to take adequate note of the totality of information available over all end-points. One primary end-point was based on only four out of the 24 studies included in the review. Rather than having no effect, it is demonstrated that a considerable body of evidence favours SCG compared to placebo and, far from being ineffective, the drug appears to be effective particularly in older children. This article replaces a previously published version. DOI: 10.1002/pst.258.     

Spinning out the asbestos agenda: How big business uses public relations in Australia

Although health warnings associated with asbestos were first documented in 1898, by 2020 there are expected to be 60,000 deaths associated with asbestos in Australia. This paper examines how Australia's dominant asbestos producer's used public relations to limit media coverage and influence government policy related to its asbestos liabilities. It then traces the company's failures to manage the resulting crisis when external stakeholders and media interests became alerted to the corporation's agenda.     

Integrating child welfare, juvenile justice, and other agencies in a continuum of services

This article presents a comprehensive strategy framework for integrating mental health, child welfare, education, substance abuse, and juvenile justice system services. It proposes an infrastructure of information exchange, cross-agency client referrals, a networking protocol, interagency councils, and service integration models. This infrastructure facilitates integrated service delivery.     

The Search For Stability and Permanence: Modelling the Pathways of Long-stay Looked After Children

This paper presents findings from a study of children lookedafter by 24 local authorities. It combines analysis of statisticaldata with analysis of qualitative and quantitative data froma questionnaire survey of a targeted sub-sample of childrenwho had been looked after for 4 years or more. The paper highlightsa complex picture of continuity and discontinuity in attemptsto achieve stability and permanence in a range of birth family,foster care, adoption, residential and leaving care placementsfor long-stay children. Some long-stay children are moving smoothlyand in a planned way towards a family for life, while some experiencelong periods in stable but temporary placements or have a numberof moves prior to finding stability and a sense of belonging.A further group of children experience stability or moves whilelooked after, without having a family to belong to when theymove into adult life. The paper discusses the difficulty withthe Government’s current long-stay performance measurein capturing the difference between stability in placement andplanned permanence for children and families.