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21.
Simon J. T. Pollard Ray V. Kemp Mark Crawford Raquel Duarte-Davidson James G. Irwin Roger Yearsley 《Risk analysis》2004,24(6):1551-1560
Environmental policymakers and regulators are often in the position of having to prioritize their actions across a diverse range of environmental pressures to secure environmental protection and improvements. Information on environmental issues to inform this type of strategic analysis can be disparate; it may be too voluminous or even absent. Data on a range of issues are rarely presented in a common format that allows easy analysis and comparison. Nevertheless, judgments are required on the significance of various environmental pressures and on the inherent uncertainties to inform strategic assessments such as “state of the environment” reports. How can decisionmakers go about this type of strategic and comparative risk analysis? In an attempt to provide practical tools for the analysis of environmental risks at a strategic level, the Environment Agency of England and Wales has conducted a program of developmental research on strategic risk assessment since 1996. The tools developed under this program use the concept of “environmental harm” as a common metric, viewed from technical, social, and economic perspectives, to analyze impacts from a range of environmental pressures. Critical to an informed debate on the relative importance of these perspectives is an understanding and analysis of the various characteristics of harm (spatial and temporal extent, reversibility, latency, etc.) and of the social response to actual or potential environmental harm from a range of hazards. Recent developments in our approach, described herein, allow a presentation of the analysis in a structured fashion so as to better inform risk‐management decisions. 相似文献
22.
Chien‐Chung Huang Ronald B. Mincy Irwin Garfinkel 《Journal of marriage and the family》2005,67(5):1213-1225
Using the 1994–1998 waves of the Current Population Survey—Child Support Supplement (N =5,387), the aims of this study are to document child support obligation rates of nonresident fathers, to examine the effect of the obligation rate on child support compliance, and to calculate the trade‐off between fathers’ financial responsibility and children's well‐being, paying particular attention to low‐income fathers. The results indicate that low‐income fathers have high child support obligation rates, which significantly reduce their child support compliance. Although lowering the obligation rate for these fathers may improve their compliance, it does not fully offset the lowered obligation amounts and leads to a 30% net payment loss for welfare mothers and a 43% loss for nonwelfare mothers. Policy implications are discussed. 相似文献
23.
Dependent masking and system life data analysis: Bayesian inference for two-component systems 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Data from field operations of a system is often used to estimate the reliability of components. Under ideal circumstances, this system field data contains the time to failure along with information on the exact component responsible for the system failure. However, in many cases, the exact component causing the failure of the system cannot be identified, and is considered to be masked. Previously developed models for estimation of component reliability from masked system life data have been based upon the assumption that masking occurs independently of the true cause of system failure. In this paper we develop a Bayesian methodology for estimating component reliabilities from masked system life data when the probability of masking is dependent upon the true cause of system failure. The Bayesian approach is illustrated for the case of a two-component system of exponentially distributed components. 相似文献
24.
E C Irwin 《Child welfare》1986,65(4):347-357
The author examines the use of drama therapy as a therapeutic and diagnostic tool that can help provide insights into personality and character and aid in the exploration of conflicts of children in therapy. 相似文献
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Asher Ben-Arieh John Gal Lenna Nepomnyaschy Irwin Garfinkel 《Social indicators research》2007,80(1):223-248
This article presents a comparative study in which social indicators were employed as a means to examine differences in living
conditions and family and children outcomes on a local level. The study obtained household-level data on the well-being of
children and families in two cities: New York (NYC) and Tel Aviv (TLV). Data were collected using computer assisted telephone
interview (CATI) technology and random digit dialing (RDD). Telephone interviews were conducted with the randomly selected
adults in English, Spanish and Chinese in NYC and in Hebrew in TLV. The study reported here documented differences in family
and child well-being between the two cities. It further documented that family size and caregiver level of education play
a similar role in both cities and their importance in regard to child and family outcomes. The significant differences found
in adults’ and especially children’s outcomes were analyzed by the caregiver’s level of education and further support the
need for policies that alleviate the burden of less educated caregivers and aim to improve the well-being of them and their
families. The study demonstrates the relevance of social indicators at the local level, not only for measuring outcomes among
specific populations, but also in regard to their possible implications for social policies, a most timely task in an era
of social services devolution. 相似文献
28.
As more and more mothers of young children enter the work force, interest in government financing of child care grows. The chief government subsidy for child care is the child care credit in the federal Internal Revenue Code. This is a nonrefundable credit and therefore provides benefits only to those with incomes high enough to require them to pay income tax. Yet of the $ 5.5 billion spent by the federal government on child care in 1986, this program accounted for $ 3.5 billion.This paper simulates the effects of expanding the child care tax credit by (1) doubling the reimbursement rates of the current credit; (2) making the credit refundable; and (3) both making the credit refundable and increasing its value for all families with income below $ 32,000.Results suggest that these changes will have modest effects on the income and earnings of mothers, and on the poverty gap and welfare recipiency. Costs, however, differ substantially. Doubling the value of the credit is far more expensive than either making the credit refundable or making it both refundable and more generous at the bottom of the income distribution. Making the credit refundable may cost taxpayers very little by leading to increases in hours worked and concomitant reductions in welfare payments. 相似文献
29.
We consider approximate Bayesian inference about the quantity R = P[Y2> Y1] when both the random variables Y1, Y2 have expectations that depend on certain explanatory variables. Our interest centers on certain characteristics of the posterior of R under Jeffreys's prior, such as its mean, variance and percentiles. Since the posterior of R is not available in closed form, several approximation procedures are introduced, and their relative performance is assessed using two real datasets. 相似文献
30.
This article sets out to provide a framework for thinking aboutthe gendered nature of civil society. The first section looksat how civil society researchers, both past and present, havefailed to provide any analysis of the gendered relations ofcivil society. This is not least because the family is positedas a residual boundary-marker for the purposes of clearing theanalytic path for the investigation of state-civil society relations.Similarly, feminist researchers have not reworked civil societytheories to explain the engendering of civil society, a keyreason for this being that civil society is not an organizingcategory for analyzing gender relations. In the final sectionwe propose a framework of analysis that uses a circuit of genderrelations to trace the flow of gendered norms, values, and practicesacross the sites of the state, market, civil society, and thefamily. 相似文献