全文获取类型
收费全文 | 23813篇 |
免费 | 284篇 |
国内免费 | 15篇 |
专业分类
管理学 | 3109篇 |
民族学 | 170篇 |
人才学 | 1篇 |
人口学 | 3486篇 |
丛书文集 | 152篇 |
理论方法论 | 1770篇 |
综合类 | 982篇 |
社会学 | 11614篇 |
统计学 | 2828篇 |
出版年
2023年 | 76篇 |
2021年 | 108篇 |
2020年 | 217篇 |
2019年 | 270篇 |
2018年 | 1928篇 |
2017年 | 2083篇 |
2016年 | 1367篇 |
2015年 | 306篇 |
2014年 | 362篇 |
2013年 | 2162篇 |
2012年 | 816篇 |
2011年 | 1568篇 |
2010年 | 1397篇 |
2009年 | 1096篇 |
2008年 | 1206篇 |
2007年 | 1392篇 |
2006年 | 432篇 |
2005年 | 596篇 |
2004年 | 548篇 |
2003年 | 467篇 |
2002年 | 369篇 |
2001年 | 350篇 |
2000年 | 305篇 |
1999年 | 291篇 |
1998年 | 213篇 |
1997年 | 172篇 |
1996年 | 195篇 |
1995年 | 185篇 |
1994年 | 171篇 |
1993年 | 178篇 |
1992年 | 196篇 |
1991年 | 193篇 |
1990年 | 188篇 |
1989年 | 161篇 |
1988年 | 188篇 |
1987年 | 197篇 |
1986年 | 153篇 |
1985年 | 165篇 |
1984年 | 182篇 |
1983年 | 157篇 |
1982年 | 154篇 |
1981年 | 129篇 |
1980年 | 119篇 |
1979年 | 133篇 |
1978年 | 102篇 |
1977年 | 82篇 |
1976年 | 97篇 |
1975年 | 115篇 |
1974年 | 86篇 |
1972年 | 63篇 |
排序方式: 共有10000条查询结果,搜索用时 15 毫秒
51.
52.
Point processes are the stochastic models most suitable for describing physical phenomena that appear at irregularly spaced
times, such as the earthquakes. These processes are uniquely characterized by their conditional intensity, that is, by the
probability that an event will occur in the infinitesimal interval (t, t+Δt), given the history of the process up tot. The seismic phenomenon displays different behaviours on different time and size scales; in particular, the occurrence of
destructive shocks over some centuries in a seismogenic region may be explained by the elastic rebound theory. This theory
has inspired the so-called stress release models: their conditional intensity translates the idea that an earthquake produces
a sudden decrease in the amount of strain accumulated gradually over time along a fault, and the subsequent event occurs when
the stress exceeds the strength of the medium. This study has a double objective: the formulation of these models in the Bayesian
framework, and the assignment to each event of a mark, that is its magnitude, modelled through a distribution that depends
at timet on the stress level accumulated up to that instant. The resulting parameter space is constrained and dependent on the data,
complicating Bayesian computation and analysis. We have resorted to Monte Carlo methods to solve these problems. 相似文献
53.
54.
55.
Gayane Novikova 《Transition Studies Review》2004,11(3):213-223
The collapse of the USSR was accompanied by transformation of the South Caucasian latent ethnopolitical conflicts into local wars. Today the situation in the area of the conflicts is “neither war, nor peace”. Three unresolved conflicts of the South Caucasus can be considered as one of the most serious obstacles for establishing a regional security system.The article gives the general characteristics of these conflicts, the trends of their development, taking into account the time factor, and analyzes the behavioral models of the main players – de jure recognized and unrecognized de facto states of the South Caucasus. The basic objective of the main players should be to keep the situation on a level preventing the resumption of the armed conflicts. The attempts of forced resolution of the conflicts are fraught with destabilization of the situation not only in the area of any of these conflicts but in the whole region. 相似文献
56.
While shows like The X-Files and 24 have merged conspiracy theories with popular science (fictions), some video games have been pushing the narrative even further. Electronic Art's Majestic game was released in July 2001 and quickly generated media buzz with its unusual multi-modal gameplay. Mixing phone calls, faxes, instant messaging, real and "fake' websites, and email, the game provides a fascinating case of an attempt at new directions for gaming communities. Through story, mode of playing, and use of technology, Majestic highlights the uncertain status of knowledge, community and self in a digital age; at the same time, it allows examination of alternative ways of understanding games' role and purpose in the larger culture. Drawing on intricate storylines involving government conspiracies, techno-bio warfare, murder and global terror, players were asked to solve mysteries in the hopes of preventing a devastating future of domination. Because the game drew in both actual and Majestic-owned/-designed websites, it constantly pushed those playing the game right to borders where simulation collides with " factuality'. Given the wide variety of "legitimate' conspiracy theory, alien encounters and alternative science web pages, users often could not distinguish when they were leaving the game's pages and venturing into " real' World Wide Web sites. Its further use of AOL's instant messenger system, in which gamers spoke not only to bots but to other players, pushed users to evaluate constantly both the status of those they were talking to and the information being provided. Additionally, the game required players to occupy unfamiliar subject positions, ones where agency was attenuated, and which subsequently generated a multi-layered sense of unease among players. This mix of authentic and staged information in conjunction with technologically mediated roles highlights what are often seen as phenomenon endemic to the Internet itself; that is, the destabilization of categories of knowing, relating, and being. 相似文献
57.
Lu Lin 《Statistical Papers》2004,45(4):529-544
The quasi-score function, as defined by Wedderburn (1974) and McCullagh (1983) and so on, is a linear function of observations.
The generalized quasi-score function introduced in this paper is a linear function of some unbiased basis functions, where
the unbiased basis functions may be some linear functions of the observations or not, and can be easily constructed by the
meaning of the parameters such as mean and median and so on. The generalized quasi-likelihood estimate obtained by such a
generalized quasi-score function is consistent and has an asymptotically normal distribution. As a result, the optimum generalized
quasi-score is obtained and a method to construct the optimum unbiased basis function is introduced. In order to construct
the potential function, a conservative generalized estimating function is defined. By conservative, a potential function for
the projected score has many properties of a log-likelihood function. Finally, some examples are given to illustrate the theoretical
results.
This paper is supported by NNSF project (10371059) of China and Youth Teacher Foundation of Nankai University. 相似文献
58.
Starting with its early twentieth century origins, the development of Labor Economics is traced to the present. We describe
an intellectual revolution in which an earlier tra-dition that focused primarily on the institution of the labor union has
been replaced by a perspective that emphasizes the various roles played by labor markets in an eco-nomic system. That earlier
tradition contained very significant ideological elements, whereas its successor deals much more with the world of ideas.
In the course of the debate, which still continues, ideas triumphed over ideology and created modern Labor Economics. 相似文献
59.
Michaela L. Z. Farber Elizabeth Timberlake Helen Patricia Mudd Linda Cullen 《Child and Adolescent Social Work Journal》2003,20(3):175-196
To prepare for the complexities of family formation, 78 prospective adoptive parents participated in Pre-Adopt, a psychosocial educational orientation program offered by one private nonprofit agency. The five-session curriculum included an overview of adoption policies and procedures, discussion of the child placement process, exploration of couples' adoption concerns and expectations about child characteristics, information about adoption laws and birth-parent/child searches, and examination of anticipatory fantasies about birth parents. Program evaluation yielded statistically significant and clinically meaningful findings about changes in emotional readiness to adopt, parenting knowledge, and satisfaction with group participation, adoption policies and agency practices. Practice implications are considered. 相似文献
60.