A comparison study of realtime fatality rates: severe acute respiratory syndrome in Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan, Toronto and Beijing, China

Summary.  In an outbreak of a completely new infectious disease like severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), estimation of the fatality rate over the course of the epidemic is of clinical and epidemiological importance. In contrast with the constant case fatality rate, a new measure, termed the 'realtime' fatality rate, is proposed for monitoring the new emerging epidemic at a population level. A competing risk model implemented via a counting process is used to estimate the realtime fatality rate in an epidemic of SARS. It can capture and reflect the time-varying nature of the fatality rate over the course of the outbreak in a timely and accurate manner. More importantly, it can provide information on the efficacy of a certain treatment and management policy for the disease. The method has been applied to the SARS data from the regions affected, namely Hong Kong, Singapore, Toronto, Taiwan and Beijing. The magnitudes and patterns of the estimated fatalities are virtually the same except in Beijing, which has a lower rate. It is speculated that the effect is linked to the different treatment protocols that were used. The standard estimate of the case fatality rate that was used by the World Health Organization has been shown to be unable to provide useful information to monitor the time-varying fatalities that are caused by the epidemic.     

Complexity Theory and Strategic Change: an Empirically Informed Critique*

We present a four‐year ethnographic study of a public‐sector organization and use narrative to describe its development in terms of four complexity theory concepts: sensitivity to initial conditions, negative and positive feedback processes, disequilibrium and emergent order. Our study indicates that order emerges at the boundary between the organization's legitimate and shadow systems. We suggest that the underlying dynamic leading to the emergent order is the need to reduce anxiety. Our findings cause us to question the assertion that organizations are naturally complex adaptive systems producing novel forms of order. We propose an alternate view that in social systems, equilibrium‐seeking behaviour is the norm; such systems can self‐organize into hierarchy. We draw attention to some of the difficulties we found in applying complexity‐theory concepts to a social system and conclude by advocating the development of complexity theory through the incorporation of insights from psychology and social theory.     

SEXUAL PRIVACY AND EARLY SEXUAL DEBUT IN NAIROBI INFORMAL SETTLEMENTS1

The purpose of this paper is to examine sexual privacy as a factor that may influence the relatively earlier sexual debut among the urban poor in Nairobi. 40 focus group discussions were held with people aged 13–17, 18–24, 25–49 and 50+ years, community leaders and service providers in four informal settlements of Nairobi. Lack of sexual privacy was identified as a major problem. Although adults were reported to use various means to acquire some measure of privacy, such as waiting for children to fall asleep, switching off the lights and separating the sleeping areas using curtains, these measures were found inadequate. The participants therefore associated young people's early initiation of sexual activity with lack of sexual privacy. Sexual privacy has not received adequate research attention as a dimension of poverty that influences young people's sexuality. More studies are called for to unravel the specific association between sexual privacy among adults and young people's sexual behaviour. The living conditions of the urban poor should also be addressed to mitigate the effects of lack of sexual privacy.     

CHANGING FAMILIES/CHANGING COMMUNITIES

Scholars writing about community in recent years have been more likely to lament its passing than celebrate its exemplars. What's missing in this recent revival of interest in community is a systematic link with work–family issues and, in particular, an explicit recognition that women's and men's work–family lives have changed dramatically in the post-World War II era. We investigate the consequences of structural shifts in our family and work lives for a sample of elite, managerial women in dual-earner marriages, a population for whom work and family concerns are both immediate and salient. Understanding changing definitions of, and trends in, family and work can provide a useful lens through which we can profitably address recent debates about the decline or resurgence of community and civic society. Our findings suggest that, although conceived differently than in previous decades, family remains central to our respondents’ sense of community and structures their civic engagement. In contrast with previous generations of women, however, work is also important, for defining women's sense of self and community and for offering an alternative venue for community service.     

Self‐Awareness in Human and Chimpanzee Infants: What Is Measured and What Is Meant by the Mark and Mirror Test?

The objective study of self‐recognition, with a mirror and a mark applied to the face, was conducted independently by Gallup (1970) for use with chimpanzees and monkeys, and by Amsterdam (1972) for use with infant humans. Comparative psychologists have followed the model (and assumptions) set by Gallup, whereas developmental psychologists have followed a different model (e.g., Lewis & Brooks‐Gunn, 1979). This article explores the assumptions in the definitions and methods of self‐recognition assessments in the 30 years since these initial studies, and charts the divergence between the developmental mark test and the comparative mark test. Two new studies, 1 with infant chimpanzees and 1 with infant humans, illustrate a reconciliation of the 2 approaches. Overt application of the mark, or other procedures related to how the mark is discovered, did not enhance mirror self‐recognition. In contrast, maternal scaffolding appears to enhance performance, perhaps by eliciting well‐rehearsed verbal responses (i.e., naming self). When comparable testing procedures and assessment criteria are used, chimpanzee and human infants perform comparably. A combined developmental comparative approach allows us to suggest that mirror self‐recognition may be based on a specific aspect of mental representation, the cognitive ability to symbolize.     

Smoking Prevalence and Antismoking Regulations in Transition Countries

As a number of new nations emerged in the early nineties, there has been a spurt in regulatory initiatives in transition countries toward nation building and socio-economic reforms. A key prerequisite to policy changes is an understanding of the related patterns and policies. This paper provides an overview of the smoking trends in transition nations, broken by gender and age, and the antismoking policies in place. In particular, four different types of non-price policies are studied. Comparisons with the rest of the world show that transition countries do not fare badly in terms of implementing antismoking policies and are, in fact, better in some cases than other countries. However, greater smoking prevalence for some population subgroups in transition nations suggests that either some other socio-economic factors influencing smoking prevalence might be at play or there might be some enforcement issues with the policies in place.     

Interpolating demography with families and households

This paper argues that the field of household and family demography serves a critical role in the development of our understanding of the determinants and consequences of population trends. Like the community, families and households are situated between the two levels at which demographic research is ordinarily conducted — the individual and the nation-state. The results of the papers in this issue are used to illustrate the critical ways that intergenerational and gender relationships shape demographic processes.     

A study of three-dimensional curves

In certain abnormalities of spinal shape, the long axis of the spine moves out of the median sagittal plane, producing both an axial torsion and a lateral deviation out of the usual front-back plane. Clinicians need to be able to assess rapidly and accurately whether or not an individual has such an abnormality. In this paper, we examine several case studies. These are analyzed using some simple summary statistics, and the use of these methods to infer abnormality is demonstrated. Using a simple fitted model for the data, an angular estimate of abnormality is obtained. Empirical measures of abnormality based on the eigenvalues of the covariance matrix are also determined. These methods are applied to a number of individuals for whom the surface spinal profiles have been recorded and who have been assessed as normal or abnormal by clinicians.     

Beyond the Binaries: Depolarizing the Categories of Sex,Sexuality, and Gender*

Most sociological research designs assume that each person has one sex. one sexuality, and one gender, congruent with each other and fixed for life. Postmodern feminists and queer theorists have been interrogating bodies, desires, and genders, but sociology has not. Deconstructing sex, sexuality, and gender reveals many possible categories embedded in social experiences and social practices. As researchers, as theorists, and as activists, sociologists have to go beyond paying lip service to the diversity of bodies, sexualities, genders. The sociologist's task should be to deconstruct the conventional categories of sex, sexuality, and gender and build new complex, cross-cutting constructs into research designs. There are revolutionary possibilities inherent in rethinking the categories of gender, sexuality, and physiological sex. Sociological data that challenge conventional knowledge by reframing the questions could provide legitimacy for new ways of thinking. Data that undermine the supposed natural dichotomies on which the social orders of most modern societies are still based could radically alter political discourses that valorize biological causes, essential heterosexuality, and traditional gender roles in families and workplaces.     

Perfect samplers for mixtures of distributions

Summary. We consider the construction of perfect samplers for posterior distributions associated with mixtures of exponential families and conjugate priors, starting with a perfect slice sampler in the spirit of Mira and co-workers. The methods rely on a marginalization akin to Rao–Blackwellization and illustrate the duality principle of Diebolt and Robert. A first approximation embeds the finite support distribution on the latent variables within a continuous support distribution that is easier to simulate by slice sampling, but we later demonstrate that the approximation can be very poor. We conclude by showing that an alternative perfect sampler based on a single backward chain can be constructed. This alternative can handle much larger sample sizes than the slice sampler first proposed.