执着——一位美国宇航员的成功之路

我在美国宾夕法尼亚州的邓莫尔长大，我曾经是第66童子军小队的成员：我们开展过很多有趣的活动。其中一项就是松木结构的赛车设计比赛，即模型汽车比赛。     

Effects of a single outlier on arma identification

Fox (1972), Box and Tiao (1975), and Abraham and Box (1979) have proposed methods for detecting outliers in time series whose ARMA form is known (or identified). We show that the existence of a single aberrant observation, innovation, or intervention causes an ARMA model to be misidentified using unadjusted autocorrelation (acf) and partial autocorrelation estimates. The magnitude, location, type of outlier, and in some cases the ARMA's parameters, affect the identification outcome. We use variance inflation, signal-to-noise ratios, and acf critical values to determine an ARMA model's susceptibility to misidentifi-cation. Numerical and simulation examples suggest how to iteratively use the outlier detection methods in practice.     

Attachment and emotion regulation: Compensatory interactions and leader–member exchange

The current study draws on attachment theory (Bowlby, 1982) to examine how attachment (a relationship-based trait disposition), and the interaction between attachment and emotion regulation, relate to LMX quality. Data were collected from subordinates and supervisors in a variety of work settings. Attachment anxiety and attachment avoidance negatively predicted LMX quality. Moderator effects were found between attachment and emotion regulation.     

Bridging the divide: elders and the assessment process

Summary At the heart of needs-based assessment is an uneasy tensionbetween agency-centred and user-centred objectives. Using casematerial from an ethnographic study of the process of assessmentfor older people, this paper looks at what happens when practitionerstry to understand the needs of individual elders through a processdominated by agency agendas. By marginalizing the older person'sinsights, the risk of unwelcome or inappropriate interventionmay increase. A user-centred approach, by contrast, requiresinformation gathering and provision that is meaningful to theolder person and sensitive to their efforts to analyse and managetheir situation. These efforts are often revealed in narrativeform as the person tells their story which, in an agency-centredassessment, is easily overlooked or even ignored.     

Detecting year-of-birth mortality patterns with limited data

Summary.  Late life mortality patterns are of crucial interest to actuaries assessing risk of longevity, most obviously for annuities and defined benefit pension schemes. The stability of public finances is also affected, as the governments have very substantial risk of longevity in the form of state benefits and public sector pension schemes. One important explanatory variable for late life mortality patterns is year of birth. Previous work has demonstrated various techniques for detecting such patterns, but always with long time series of mortality rates. The paper describes two alternative ways to detect such patterns, even with missing population data or the absence of a time series. The paper finds support for the idea that different birth cohorts have different rates of aging.     

Robustness and monotonicity properties of generalized correlation coefficients

A new class of generalized correlation coefficients that contains the Pearson and Kendall statistics as special cases was defined by Chinchilli et al. (2005) and applied to the estimation of correlations coefficients within the context of 2×2 cross-over designs for clinical trials. In this paper, we determine the infinitesimal robustness and local stability properties of these generalized correlation coefficients by deriving their corresponding influence functions. For cases in which the population distribution is a bivariate normal or a mixture of bivariate normal distributions we obtain explicit formulas, and establish monotonicity and sign-reverse rule properties of the generalized correlation coefficients.     

An argument for context‐driven intersectionality

The concept of intersectionality has fundamentally changed feminist theorizing and the study of women and gender. However, intersectional research, theorizing, and practice also have been subject to important critiques. This article provides a brief genealogy of intersectionality and summarizes major critiques. We recognize value in these critiques as well as the ongoing power of an intersectional lens. We therefore advocate what we call “context‐driven intersectionality,” arguing that attention to the historical, political, economic, and social factors that shape power relationships and social structures is critical to conducting robust intersectional analyses that avoid reification of social categories and inequalities.