Efficient simulation of tail probabilities in a queueing model with heterogeneous servers

This paper considers a multi-server queue with Markov-modulated Poisson input and server-dependent phase-type service times. We develop an efficient rare-event simulation technique to estimate the probability that the number of customers in this system reaches a high value. Relying on explicit bounds on the probability under consideration as well as the associated likelihood ratio, we succeed in proving that the proposed estimator is of bounded relative error. Simulation experiments illustrate the significant speed-up that can be achieved by the proposed algorithm.     

Resolving some contradictions in the theory of linear opinion pools

Bradley (Theory Decis 85:5–20, 2018) develops some theory of the linear opinion pool, in apparent contradiction to results of Dawid et al. (Test 4:263–314, 1995). We investigate the sources of these contradictions, and in particular identify a mathematical error in Bradley (2018) that invalidates his main result.

     

Men doing women's dirty work: Desegregation,immigrants and employer preferences in the cleaning industry in Norway

The literature on gender desegregation has documented the gendered nature of employment hierarchies and opportunities, but less work has examined how the influx of immigrants in the labour market might affect employment hierarchies and gender segregation. This study examines employers' perceptions of ‘the suitable cleaner' — a traditionally female‐dominated occupation that has received a substantial number of male immigrant workers. Departing from the notion that men in female‐dominated occupations are advantaged by a ‘glass escalator' effect, we analyse how employer preferences position different categories of workers as hireable. Building on interviews with employers in the Norwegian cleaning industry, the study demonstrates how three different but intertwined logics define employer preferences: effectivity demands, professionalization and devaluation. While the first logic favours men as workers and the second devalues ‘female' competence, opening the occupation for men, the third logic favours immigrants, combined positioning immigrant men on top of the hierarchy of suitability.     

Optimal Control and Sensitivity Analysis for Two Risk Models

Two periodic-review models arising in insurance are considered in the framework of cost approach. The first one treats the insurance company performance under assumption of capital injections and reinsurance. The second one deals with assets selling and bank loans. The aim of the article is to demonstrate the method for establishing the optimal control of such applied stochastic models and to study their stability. For this purpose, sensitivity analysis is carried out. Numerical results are also provided.     

Caregiver‐endorsed strategies to improving sexual health outcomes among foster youth

Foster youth are at an increased risk of unintended pregnancies and sexually transmitted infections (STIs) compared with peers. We conducted 11 semistructured focus groups with 86 foster and kinship caregivers in three child welfare jurisdictions to understand their strategies for monitoring and communicating with youth in foster care around sexual health topics, with the overall goal of developing a training for caregivers to reduce STI and unintended pregnancies among youth in foster care. We used thematic analysis to analyse the data. Three main themes emerged: (1) strategies to communicate with youth about sexual health (trust‐building, open/direct communication, tailoring information to each individual youth, creative conversation‐starters, and self‐education), (2) strategies for monitoring youth (e.g., tailoring monitoring to youth development/characteristics, clearly communicating rules, co‐development of rules, spending time with youth/friends/friends' parents, using technology, using a social support system), and (3) other strategies to promote positive youth development (advocating for youth, engaging youth in goal‐setting). Trainings that provide caregivers with (1) information on sexual health and normal adolescent development and (2) strategies and skills to help caregivers engage in open, evidence‐informed communication, and monitor youth in a tailored, developmentally‐informed manner are likely to improve reproductive health and other outcomes among youth in foster care.     

Career Outcomes Data From Social Media: Examining Quality in Current Practices

Social media websites contain information that can be used to assess career outcomes. Yet, questions remain about the quality of this data source. This study examined social media data collected from a large sample of recent college graduates (N = 3,094), considering how well those data represented the broader population of graduates and to what extent social media data matched survey responses on 5 employment variables. Results indicated that indiscriminately using social media data can lead to biased inferences about career outcomes. Specifically, social media data matched survey data in just 67% to 76% of comparisons. Despite these limitations, findings also revealed strategies to improve agreement between data sources, leading to more trustworthy inferences about career outcomes from social media. Results indicate a need to heighten practitioner awareness of data quality issues related to career outcomes data sources. A framework for examining data quality is offered, with suggested directions for future research.     

Women With Hypoactive Sexual Desire Disorder Versus Sexual Interest/Arousal Disorder: An Empirical Test of Raising the Bar

In 2013, the fifth edition of the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM-5) was published with a major revision to the sexual dysfunction categories, and the diagnosis of female hypoactive sexual desire disorder (HSDD) was replaced with female sexual interest/arousal disorder (SIAD). Since being introduced, concern has been expressed that SIAD inappropriately “raises the bar” for diagnosis. To address these concerns, we sought to evaluate the number of women with a diagnosis of HSDD who also met criteria for SIAD. In a sample of 151 women, we found that 73.5% of women with a diagnosis of HSDD met criteria for SIAD. The two groups were compared on the Sexual Interest/Desire Inventory, and women who met criteria for both HSDD and SIAD consistently scored lower on sexual desire frequency and satisfaction, satisfaction with sex, receptivity, positive sexual thoughts, reactions to erotica, arousal frequency, ease, continuation, and orgasm ease/achievement, and higher on distress. In addition, women meeting criteria for HSDD only tended to have mild symptoms across the six SIAD criteria compared to those meeting criteria for both HSDD and SIAD. These findings suggest that the SIAD criteria does not unduly raise the bar for diagnosis.     

Charm offensive: mediatized country image transformations in international relations

ABSTRACT

This paper focuses on what has come to be known as a ‘charm offensive,’ a diplomatic technique countries may use to shift their international image through strategic public relations campaigns utilizing personal magnetism. The charm of the selected representative is meant to appeal to a broad international audience with the hope of improving the country's brand. The paper examines the concept and practice of a charm offensive through two case studies. The first is the Iranian charm offensive during the 2015 negotiations of the nuclear deal with the United States, when Iranian Minister of Foreign Affairs, Mohammad Javad Zarif aimed to improve his country's controversial international image through gentle, diplomatic communication and an aura of civility. The second case study is the charm offensive of North Korea from the 2018 Winter Olympics until the historic meeting of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and US President Donald J. Trump in June 2018. Both case studies analyze the media representations of the particular charm offensive in two countries, the United States and a regionally more proximate, and therefore likely more directly affected country: Israel and South Korea, respectively. I argue that quick image-transformations often characterize contemporary, highly mediatized international diplomatic communication. Unlike classical cases of soft power, the temporary alliances forged through charm offensives are not built on shared values, but on momentary appearances, and sometimes on deception.     

Giving Our Students Professional Voice: Development and Implementation of a BSW Course on Writing for Agency Practice

In social work practice, writing is a tool for advocacy, communication with clients, and other professionals, and accountability. In virtually all practice settings, workers at every organizational level invest significant time and effort in writing. However, the social work education literature reveals little attention to teaching BSW students to write for practice settings. This article summarizes the development of a BSW course on writing human service agency documents, decisions made and lessons learned in the process, and suggestions for creating similar courses elsewhere.