Joint coverage probability in a simulation study on continuous-time Markov chain parameter estimation

Parameter dependency within data sets in simulation studies is common, especially in models such as continuous-time Markov chains (CTMCs). Additionally, the literature lacks a comprehensive examination of estimation performance for the likelihood-based general multi-state CTMC. Among studies attempting to assess the estimation, none have accounted for dependency among parameter estimates. The purpose of this research is twofold: (1) to develop a multivariate approach for assessing accuracy and precision for simulation studies (2) to add to the literature a comprehensive examination of the estimation of a general 3-state CTMC model. Simulation studies are conducted to analyze longitudinal data with a trinomial outcome using a CTMC with and without covariates. Measures of performance including bias, component-wise coverage probabilities, and joint coverage probabilities are calculated. An application is presented using Alzheimer's disease caregiver stress levels. Comparisons of joint and component-wise parameter estimates yield conflicting inferential results in simulations from models with and without covariates. In conclusion, caution should be taken when conducting simulation studies aiming to assess performance and choice of inference should properly reflect the purpose of the simulation.     

Explaining Restrictive TANF Policies: Group Threat Hypothesis and State Economy Conditions

ABSTRACT

This study examined whether TANF policies' restrictiveness is related to states' racial composition and economic conditions. The data were extracted from various reports dated 2000–2014. Results from generalized least squares random-effects modeling showed the number of restrictive TANF policies to be associated positively with larger populations of Hispanic individuals and associated negatively with larger populations of African American individuals. No association was found between policies' restrictiveness and “other” minority population, nor between restrictiveness and either poverty or unemployment. One conclusion suggested by the analysis is that restrictive TANF policies result from dramatic increases in the Hispanic population that trigger the dominant group's resentment of ethnic minorities. Several policy implications are stated.     

Client Improvement and Working Alliance: Case-Manager Factors

ABSTRACT

To investigate working alliance and other factors in case managers' perceptions of client improvement, data were collected from 95 case manager–adult client pairs from community-based agencies. Per the multiple regression results, client improvement as perceived by case manager increased with level of working alliance as perceived by case manager, and with manager age and social work education at the bachelor's level and master's level. Such improvement decreased with level of client substance abuse as perceived by manager. No association was found between client improvement as perceived by case manager and four further tested factors: level of working alliance as perceived by client; homogeneous gender and ethnicity of client and case manager; case manager work experience; duration of client working with the current case manager. Implications for practice and education are discussed.     

On the performance of the poisson and the negative binomial ridge predictors

Mansson and Shukur (2011 Mansson, K., Shukur, G. (2011). A Poisson ridge regression estimator. Economic Modelling 28:1475–1481. [Google Scholar]) investigated the performance of the Poisson ridge regression (PRR) estimator in terms of the mean square error (MSE) criterion. Similarly, Mansson (2012 Mansson, K. (2012). On ridge estimators for the negative binomial regression model. Economic Modelling 29:178–184. [Google Scholar]) investigated the performance of the Negative binomial ridge regression (NBRR) according to the MSE criterion. But there is no any analysis of the predictive performance of the PRR and NBRR estimators. Therefore, we define the PRR and the NBRR predictors to evaluate their predictive performances according to the prediction mean squared error under the target function. The Monte Carlo simulations and the real life numerical example are conducted to investigate the defined predictors' performance.     

How I wonder what you are: Children's songs as a source of mental and internal state information

This study investigated (1) whether children's songs could be potential sources of internal state information and (2) cross-cultural/linguistic differences in the availability of such information. We coded for expressions of mental states and other internal states in 255 English songs, likely accessed by children in the United States, and 255 Japanese songs, likely accessed by Japanese children. The majority of the songs in both samples contained at least one internal state expression, with songs containing four to five tokens and two types of internal state expressions on average. Japanese songs had more types of internal state expressions than English songs when comparing the two samples in proportion scores that controlled for the length of songs. However, differences between English and Japanese songs were negligible in the absolute frequency of tokens and types of internal state expressions, with the exception that Japanese songs were richer in ambiguous internal state expressions.     

Differential associations and concordance across measures of parent emotion socialization: The role of parent and adolescent emotion dysregulation

Although parent ratings, adolescent ratings, and observations are all utilized to measure parent emotion socialization during adolescence, there is a lack of research examining measurement differences and concordance. Thus, the present study compared three measures of parent supportive and nonsupportive emotion socialization and examined whether parent and adolescent emotion dysregulation differentially related to these measures or moderated concordance across measures. Participants were a community sample of 92 adolescent-parent dyads. Adolescents were 13–17 years-old (M = 15.5, SD = 1.1), 41 were female and 51 were male; 87% of parents identified as mothers. Observed emotion socialization was coded during a parent-adolescent conflict discussion task. The adolescent and parent also rated the parent's supportive and nonsupportive reactions to the adolescent's negative emotions; they each also rated their own emotion dysregulation. Due to data collection timing, COVID-19 family stress was also assessed and explored as a covariate in analyses. Bivariate correlations indicated that there were weak and non-significant correlations across emotion socialization measures. Multilevel models indicated that measures of parent emotion socialization were differentially associated with adolescent emotion dysregulation, with adolescent emotion dysregulation relating significantly to adolescent ratings, but not observations or parent ratings, of parent emotion socialization. In addition, multiple regressions indicated that there was less concordance across measures when parents were higher in emotion dysregulation. Results suggest that measurement may influence researchers’ conclusions about how youth adjustment relates to parent emotion socialization. Additionally, there may be even lower agreement across measures of parent emotion socialization when parents have emotional challenges.     

区域协作中制度性集体行动研究——以京津冀区域为例

区域协作是大都市区治理体系中的核心要件，也是当前国家治理现代化在区域空间层次的重要体现。为了明确区域协作机制中存在的困境和改进机会，以探索更高效顺畅的区域协作路径，文章从制度性集体行动的视角，探讨了京津冀区域协作中制度性参与者及其诉求，分析了京、津、冀政府各自的关注议题、行动成本，以及不同层级主体参与区域协作的方式，构建了区域协作的制度性集体行动中行动者、协作网络、权力介入、合作风险与交易成本等变量间的互动机理，并分析了当前区域协作中集体行动的主要困境与解决机制。研究指出：区域问题的演化是推动区域治理变革的主要根源，京津冀区域发展差异和核心城区过度聚集问题逐渐加剧，致使区域一体化和协调发展政策必要性凸显。区域协作的基本变量来源于区域现实情境，根植于区域长期形成的政治、社会、经济网络，包括：现有制度系统，区域结构与所要解决的区域问题，参与区域合作的行动者诉求及其紧迫性程度，地方组织之间的自发协作互动网络等。中介变量是由基本变量衍生出的协作行动中的过程变量，包括：合作的领域、范围，参与主体构成状况，行动者动机，强制性权力的介入程度等。基本变量与中介变量共同作用于区域协作机制，并对交易成本和...     

Racial Attitudes in the Deep South: Persistence and Change at the University of Alabama, 1963–2013*

Using data from a unique series of surveys collected between 1963 and 2013, this study examines racial attitudes among young white adults in the Deep South over a 50-year period. Repeated surveys of University of Alabama students in 1963, 1966, 1969, 1972, 1983, 1988, and 2013 measured racial stereotypes, support for racial segregation, and in the 2013 study, racial resentment and support for ameliorative racial policies. Analyses show that in the 1960s endorsement of racial stereotypes was a powerful predictor of support for racial segregation. By the early 1970s, racial integration became a reality in the Deep South and, paralleling broad trends in U.S. society, endorsement of racial stereotypes and support for racial segregation declined. Simultaneously, threats to whites' position in the form of ameliorative racial policies (including affirmative action) emerged along with racial resentment. By 2013, racial resentment, rather than racial stereotyping, was the primary determinant of white students' opposition to racial change. Our findings support Herbert Blumer's (1958) argument that racial prejudice exists in a sense of group position, and that it functions to preserve the advantaged position of the dominant group regardless of changes in the form that prejudice takes.     

Parental unconditional acceptance: An antidote to parental conditional regard

Studies around the world revealed that children's performance is a significant source of parents’ self-worth. This phenomenon is particularly salient among Chinese parents because of the emphasis on interdependent self-construal in a face culture. With child-based worth, many parents feel compelled to use conditional regard to minimize children's failure and maximize success. Yet, parental conditional regard is notorious for its undermining effects on children's well-being. This study aimed to investigate the antecedents and consequences of parental unconditional acceptance to children, an antidote to parental conditional regard. We conducted a priming experiment with 145 parents randomly assigned to child-based worth or unconditional self-acceptance conditions. Results showed that child-based worth was an inhibitive factor, whereas unconditional self-acceptance was a facilitative factor to parents’ provision of unconditional acceptance to children. Parents primed with unconditional self-acceptance had more intention to provide unconditional acceptance to their children, and in turn had more authoritative responses to their children's undesirable behavior. Our findings have practical implications for parent education.