The effect of local livestock population changes on auction market viability—a spatial analysis

This paper examines the relationship between auction market closures over the period 1980–2000 and livestock population changes, as recorded in the agricultural and horticultural census. Auction market locations and census data were collated within a Geographical Information System and changes in livestock populations examined by region and by market catchment. Regionally, auction market closures during the 1980s were significantly associated with concurrent reductions in cattle numbers, with market reductions following loss of cattle in eastern lowland areas. No such association with livestock numbers was found during the 1990s. Within these agricultural regions, individual market closures were not associated with changes in local livestock numbers within their catchments. Thus, the historical evidence suggests that whilst a substantial loss of livestock within a region puts pressure on its network of auction markets, the viability of individual markets within the region is decided by other factors. Such factors include the capital costs of modernising market facilities and meeting new regulatory requirements, the effect of unpaid debt on market cashflow, and the market's ability to diversify into other areas of business. The recent outbreak of foot and mouth disease may lead to further market closures, both directly as a result of livestock culls and indirectly as farmers continue to use alternative marketing channels developed when auction markets were closed during the outbreak.     

Driving out failure

Product recall notices in shops, newspapers and elsewhere inform us now and then of children's toys that might be dangerous or electrical goods that could catch fire. You or I might describe that as faulty design. Tim Davis calls it an "escaped failure mode"—and he is against it. His world is not toys or electrical goods, but vehicles, where failure modes and recalls are more expensive and usually more serious. As an example: in 2001 the failure of certain Firestone tyres on Ford SUVs led to rollover accidents in which close to 300 people died. Nearly 20 million tyres needed to be recalled. Industry estimates put the cost at around †3 billion. It was Tim Davis who was called in to find out what had gone wrong. Julian Champkin interviewed him.     

Probability density estimation via an infinite Gaussian mixture model: application to statistical process monitoring

Summary.  The primary goal of multivariate statistical process performance monitoring is to identify deviations from normal operation within a manufacturing process. The basis of the monitoring schemes is historical data that have been collected when the process is running under normal operating conditions. These data are then used to establish confidence bounds to detect the onset of process deviations. In contrast with the traditional approaches that are based on the Gaussian assumption, this paper proposes the application of the infinite Gaussian mixture model (GMM) for the calculation of the confidence bounds, thereby relaxing the previous restrictive assumption. The infinite GMM is a special case of Dirichlet process mixtures and is introduced as the limit of the finite GMM, i.e. when the number of mixtures tends to ∞. On the basis of the estimation of the probability density function, via the infinite GMM, the confidence bounds are calculated by using the bootstrap algorithm. The methodology proposed is demonstrated through its application to a simulated continuous chemical process, and a batch semiconductor manufacturing process.     

A NONEQUILIBRIUM ANALYSIS OF UNANIMITY RULE, MAJORITY RULE, AND PARETO

It is widely held that in the absence of transaction costs unanimity rule is more effective at producing Pareto improvements and Pareto optimal outcomes than majority rule. We compare unanimity rule and majority rule in their ability to adhere to the Pareto criterion and to select Pareto-optimal alternatives using a single-dimensional spatial voting model without rational proposals. This produces two interesting results. First, if proposals are random, then majority rule is almost always more adept at selecting Pareto-optimal alternatives than unanimity rule. Second, if individuals propose their ideal points, then majority rule selects Pareto-optimal outcomes at least as well as unanimity rule. These results contrast with equilibrium analyses, which typically show that unanimity rule is the best voting procedure for maintaining Pareto optimality. (JEL D7 , C61 )     

Gender,social change,and the professions: The case of pharmacy

This paper examines the nature of increasing female entry into the profession of pharmacy. Using data from a survey of Ontario pharmacists, it compares the work experiences and career paths of 668 men and women in the profession. In terms of hours worked, where they work, and the nature of the work that they do, we found considerable differences between males and females that are becoming increasingly pronounced as more women enter the profession. These findings are then discussed in terms of available theories of gender, professions and social change.     

THE LONG ARM OF THE LAW:

This article offers a test of labeling theory by exploring whether contact with school and justice system authorities has long-term, negative, and independent effects on an individual's labor market success. We use the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY79), a large and nationally representative sample, to examine whether experiences ranging from school suspension to incarceration during ages 15–23 can predict occupational status, income, and employment during ages 29–37. Unlike previous studies, we control for an exhaustive list of variables: social background, human capital, prior deviant behavior, family status, and local context. Our findings generally support labelling theory. Severe forms of labeling like sentencing and incaraceration have the strongest negative effects, though among females suspension or expulsion from school also has consistently negative effects. We conclude with a discussion of how labeling might reduce employment chances, with a focus on gender differences.     

Differential Overeducation in East and West Germany: Extending Frank's Theory on Economic Returns Changes the Picture of Disadvantaged Women

We test the theory of differential overeducation which predicts that women and particularly partnered women are more affected by overeducation than men. Our OLS and FE estimations based on German SOEP data confirm that women indeed exhibit more years of excess education in both regions. Women's higher educational mismatch accounts for 5 pp of the West German pay gap. However, women suffer lower wage penalties from overeducation than men in both regions and, for partnered people, higher female wage penalties vanish in the FE estimations. Hence, women are more rationed than men concerning overeducation magnitude, confirming Frank's theory, but rather less disadvantaged with respect to economic returns.     

A longitudinal study exploring the relationships between occupational stressors, non-work stressors, and work performance

There is a lack of intricate research into the relationships between work performance and other variables. This study examined the causal relationship between work, non-work stressors, and work performance. Using longitudinal multi-group data from three groups—university staff, trainee nurses, and part-time employees (overall N=244)—structural equation modelling was employed to explore one-way and reverse competing models. The results produced a good fitting model with one-way causal paths from work-related and non-work stressors (time 1) to job performance (time 2). Nested model comparison analysis provided further evidence to support this best fitting model, emphasizing the strong influence that non-work factors have within the workplace. This study has important implications for theory, methodology and statistical analysis, and practice in the field of work-related stressors and performance.