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Foot and mouth disease (FMD) is considered by many as the most important animal disease in the world. FMD is highly contagious and outbreaks incur significant costs as affected countries are severely limited in their ability to trade. A number of trade commodities may be contaminated with FMD virus (FMDV) including animal products, for example, meat. As a member of the European Union, Great Britain (GB) has put in place a number of regulations to prevent the importation of pathogens in imported meat products. However, the illegal importation of meat provides a route by which safety controls may be circumvented and meat from FMD affected areas may be imported. This study assesses the FMD infection risk posed to the livestock population of GB from the illegal importation of meat, and estimates the major contributors to this overall risk, through the development of a quantitative risk assessment model. From model results, the total amount of illegal meat entering GB each year is estimated on average to be 11,875 tonnes. with 90% certainty that this is between 4,398 and 28,626 tonnes per year; of which between 64.5 and 565 kg are contaminated with FMDV. This flow of illegal meat results in an estimate of a frequency of FMD infection in GB livestock of 0.015 cases of infected animals per year, with 90% certainty it is between 0.0017 and 0.053. Imports from the region Near and Middle East account for 47% of this risk, and 68% of the risk is attributed to bone-in and dried de-boned products.  相似文献   
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Self-forgiveness is generally understood to be a mechanism that restores and improves the self. In the current study, we examine the possible deleterious consequences of forgiving the self among gamblers-specifically in regard to gamblers' readiness to change their problematic behavior. At a large Canadian university, 110 young adult gamblers' level of gambling pathology was assessed, along with their readiness to change and self-forgiveness for their gambling. Participants were 33 females and 75 males (2 unspecified) with a mean age of 20.33. Results revealed that level of pathology (at risk vs. problem gamblers) significantly predicted increased readiness to change. Self-forgiveness mediated this relationship, such that level of gambling pathology increased readiness to change to the extent that participants were relatively unforgiving of their gambling. Implications for seeking professional assistance as well as treatment and recovery are discussed.  相似文献   
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迄今为止,很少有执行官能够成功地在一家陷入困境的大型组织内部实现变革,克拉多·帕塞拉就是为数不多的成功者之一,不仅如此,他还先后成功地领导两家大型企业完成了变革。  相似文献   
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Constructing spatial density maps of seismic events, such as earthquake hypocentres, is complicated by the fact that events are not located precisely. In this paper, we present a method for estimating density maps from event locations that are measured with error. The estimator is based on the simulation–extrapolation method of estimation and is appropriate for location errors that are either homoscedastic or heteroscedastic. A simulation study shows that the estimator outperforms the standard estimator of density that ignores location errors in the data, even when location errors are spatially dependent. We apply our method to construct an estimated density map of earthquake hypocenters using data from the Alaska earthquake catalogue.  相似文献   
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Sportisse  Aude  Boyer  Claire  Josse  Julie 《Statistics and Computing》2020,30(6):1629-1643
Statistics and Computing - Missing values challenge data analysis because many supervised and unsupervised learning methods cannot be applied directly to incomplete data. Matrix completion based on...  相似文献   
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