A Partially Linear Model Using a Gaussian Process Prior

A partially linear model is a semiparametric regression model that consists of parametric and nonparametric regression components in an additive form. In this article, we propose a partially linear model using a Gaussian process regression approach and consider statistical inference of the proposed model. Based on the proposed model, the estimation procedure is described by posterior distributions of the unknown parameters and model comparisons between parametric representation and semi- and nonparametric representation are explored. Empirical analysis of the proposed model is performed with synthetic data and real data applications.     

International Trade Inoperability Input-Output Model (IT-IIM): Theory and Application

The inoperability input-output model (IIM) has been used for analyzing disruptions due to man-made or natural disasters that can adversely affect the operation of economic systems or critical infrastructures. Taking economic perturbation for each sector as inputs, the IIM provides the degree of economic production impacts on all industry sectors as the outputs for the model. The current version of the IIM does not provide a separate analysis for the international trade component of the inoperability. If an important port of entry (e.g., Port of Los Angeles) is disrupted, then international trade inoperability becomes a highly relevant subject for analysis. To complement the current IIM, this article develops the International Trade-IIM (IT-IIM). The IT-IIM investigates the resulting international trade inoperability for all industry sectors resulting from disruptions to a major port of entry. Similar to traditional IIM analysis, the inoperability metrics that the IT-IIM provides can be used to prioritize economic sectors based on the losses they could potentially incur. The IT-IIM is used to analyze two types of direct perturbations: (1) the reduced capacity of ports of entry, including harbors and airports (e.g., a shutdown of any port of entry); and (2) restrictions on commercial goods that foreign countries trade with the base nation (e.g., embargo).     

DISCONTINUITY OF OUTPUT CONVERGENCE WITHIN THE UNITED STATES: WHY HAS THE COURSE CHANGED?

Has the progress of output convergence changed within the United States? This article examines the output convergence among U.S. states for the last five decades by making several improvements over the extant literature. By applying a battery of convergence tests designed to capture nonlinear transitional dynamics to real output per worker data (i.e., nominal values deflated by state‐level price), we find that output convergence has not been a feature of the continental United States since the 1970s. Instead, output convergence has proceeded among four subgroups within which constituent states have certain characteristics in common. Our regression analysis suggests that state‐level characteristics related to technology and human capital play a crucial role in accounting for the formation and composition of convergence clubs, in agreement with the recent theoretical models of growth and development (e.g., Aghion et al. 2009; Gennaioli et al. 2013b). The level of technology, proxied by patents, turns out to be a consistently significant determinant even after controlling for endogeneity, suggesting that frictions in the diffusion of technology and human capital may have led to clustering of states with different levels of productivity. Our results therefore cast doubt on the common view that diffusion of knowledge and technology across state borders is frictionless. (JEL O47, O51)     

‘Wishing to go it alone’: the complicated interplay of independence,interdependence and agency

Some individuals with disabilities for whom verbal speech is not reliable use facilitated communication to express thoughts and ideas. While they may require intensive physical support initially, the goal is independent typing. However, this emphasis on fading support and independence bears consideration. We utilize a Disability Studies lens to frame practices around independence and the complicated interplay between interdependence, agency and voice. Based on qualitative analysis of communication training sessions, we present four findings: the complexity of the message versus fading of physical support, the emotional dimensions of independence, the facilitator’s navigation of multiple roles, and the importance of facilitating agency. We also share implications of reframing independence and facilitating agency for the communication training process.     

Planned Happenstance Skills and Occupational Identity Status in High School Students

This study investigated how the 5 components of planned happenstance skills are related to adolescents' occupational identity statuses. A canonical correlation analysis was performed with a sample of 370 high school students in South Korea. The results indicated that higher identity statuses (i.e., achievement and moratorium statuses) were significantly related to the 5 components of planned happenstance skills, whereas lower identity statuses (i.e., foreclosure and diffusion statuses) were not significantly related to the 5 components of planned happenstance skills. In addition, the results of the mediation analysis indicated that the transition from moratorium to achievement status was positively mediated by 3 components of planned happenstance skills: optimism, persistence, and risk taking.