How to build nomogram for type 2 diabetes using a naïve Bayesian classifier technique

In this study, we introduced a method for building a Bayesian nomogram and proposed an appropriate nomogram for type 2 diabetes (T2D) using data from 13,474 subjects collected from the 2013–2015 Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (KNHANES) data. We identified risk factors related to T2D, proposed a visual nomogram for T2D from a naïve Bayesian classifier model, and predicted incidence rates. Additionally, we computed confidence intervals for the influence of risk factors (attributes) and verified the proposed Bayesian nomogram using a receiver operating characteristic curve. Finally, we compared logistic regression and the Bayesian nomogram for T2D. The results of the analysis of the T2D data showed that the most influential factor among all attributes in the Bayesian nomogram was age group, and the highest risk factor for T2D incidence was cardiovascular disease. Dyslipidemia and hypertension also had significant impacts on T2D incidence while the effects of sex, smoking status, and employment status were relatively small compared to those of other variables. Using the proposed Bayesian nomogram, we can easily predict the incidence rate of T2D in an individual, and treatment plans can be established based on this information.     

名词性从句中“の”和“こと”的教学对策研究

名词性从句中的“の”和“こと”多数情况下是可以互换的,但是根据主句谓语和名词性从句内容,也有只能使用“の”或者“こと”的情况.为了查明学生对二者区别的掌握程度,进行了问卷调查.通过对问卷调查结果进行分析,提出从完善教科书编写与改善教授法两方面来降低“の”和“こと”的使用误用.     

A novel quantification of information for longitudinal data analyzed by mixed‐effects modeling

Nonlinear mixed‐effects (NLME) modeling is one of the most powerful tools for analyzing longitudinal data especially under the sparse sampling design. The determinant of the Fisher information matrix is a commonly used global metric of the information that can be provided by the data under a given model. However, in clinical studies, it is also important to measure how much information the data provide for a certain parameter of interest under the assumed model, for example, the clearance in population pharmacokinetic models. This paper proposes a new, easy‐to‐interpret information metric, the “relative information” (RI), which is designed for specific parameters of a model and takes a value between 0% and 100%. We establish the relationship between interindividual variability for a specific parameter and the variance of the associated parameter estimator, demonstrating that, under a “perfect” experiment (eg, infinite samples or/and minimum experimental error), the RI and the variance of the model parameter estimator converge, respectively, to 100% and the ratio of the interindividual variability for that parameter and the number of subjects. Extensive simulation experiments and analyses of three real datasets show that our proposed RI metric can accurately characterize the information for parameters of interest for NLME models. The new information metric can be readily used to facilitate study designs and model diagnosis.     

《皮裹腿故事集》的绿色解读

库柏的<皮裹腿故事集>是最早记录美国西进扩张历史的浪漫主义文学作品,描绘了自然之子纳蒂·邦波在北美荒野的精彩冒险活动,叙述了北美荒野让位于城镇、村庄的文明化过程,奠定了美国文学中的一个恒久主题:文明与自然的冲突.在生态危机日益严峻的今天,重读近两百年前库柏提出的美国进步发展史中的生态问题,为我们提供了培养在自然面前保持谦卑意识,重审美国"进步"概念的着手点.     

传承与超越：主观恶性说新诠解

主观恶性说有着悠久历史，在其历史嬗变过程中主要形成了义务侵害说、规范违反说及道德危害说等具体学说。主观恶性说的合理之处在于指出行为人主观上时法律的否定态度，而其疵瑕之处则是只强调对法律的遵守而轻忽法律的合理内涵，易造成恶法亦法，从而导致立法者暴政，故为维护公民基本人权，重构主观恶性说可谓势在必行。     

Meta-analysis using multilevel models with an application to the study of class size effects

Meta-analysis is formulated as a special case of a multilevel (hierarchical data) model in which the highest level is that of the study and the lowest level that of an observation on an individual respondent. Studies can be combined within a single model where the responses occur at different levels of the data hierarchy and efficient estimates are obtained. An example is given from studies of class sizes and achievement in schools, where study data are available at the aggregate level in terms of overall mean values for classes of different sizes, and also at the student level.     

Political discontent in South Korea

This paper examines the nature and sources of political discontent in South Korea, one of the most successful third-wave democracies in East Asia. The analysis of a recent national sample survey indicates that ordinary people are able to distinguish among regime principles, regime performance, and regime institutions, which constitute separate targets of political discontent. The analysis also indicates that sources of political discontent vary depending on its targets. Noteworthy is that official corruption is most consistently related to disbelief in democratic principles, democratic dissatisfaction, and institutional distrust. Furthermore, less free and fair elections are related to more democratic dissatisfaction and institutional distrust. The results suggest that the democracy in Korea confronts not only critical citizens but also disloyal citizens suspicious of democracy. The fact that institutional trust declined, democratic satisfaction ceased to grow, the view of democracy as a universal value weakened while desire for democracy remained high suggests that the new democracy in Korea faces considerable difficulty, if not a crisis.     

Decent Living Standards: Material Prerequisites for Human Wellbeing

Children whose parents experience adverse social, economic, or health-related living conditions are more likely to face similar types of disadvantage in their adult life. However, a limitation of many earlier studies is that they do not account for the multidimensionality of the concept of living conditions, and that the child generation’s life courses are targeted as static and independent from the societal context in which they are imbedded. The current investigation addressed these aspects by focusing on the complexity, duration, and timing of disadvantage with regard to how adverse circumstances in the family of origin are associated with trajectories of social, economic, and health-related living conditions across adulthood. We also examined the role of educational attainment for these associations. Analyses were based a Swedish cohort born in 1953 (n = 14,294). We first conducted sequence analysis, followed by hierarchical cluster analysis, to generate ‘outcome profiles’, i.e. trajectories of adult disadvantage. Second, several indicators of adverse circumstances in childhood were analysed by means of multinominal regression analysis, showing the odds of ending up in the different trajectories. The results indicated that individuals who grew up under adverse conditions were more likely to experience disadvantaged social, economic, and health-related trajectories. This was particularly the case for trajectories characterised by a high degree of complexity, i.e. coexisting disadvantages, and—among men only—by a longer duration of disadvantage. Educational attainment was identified as a powerful mediator, suggesting that efforts to increase equal educational opportunity may be a way of reducing the intergenerational transmission of disadvantage.     

你看你看貔貅的脸

我叫小意。之所以会有这个名害,主要是因为长得有ET相。我自己对意的理解,则多半和出人意表相关:比如某天,接到任务要去参观渤海易生。游山玩水要看攻略,参观营业部自然也要做功课。查过资料得知,‘渤海易生'是渤海易生商务服务有限公司的简称,是海航集团旗下专业的第三方支付业务服务公司,渤海易生色率先获得中华人民共和国支付业务许可证。第三方支付是做什么的呢?相关工作人员告知,渤海易生的发展目标是:秉承精彩生活、易生相伴理念,以预付卡发行与爱理、互联网支付为两大核心业务方向,