Understanding 2016: China,Brexit and Trump in the history of uneven and combined development

This article uses the theory of uneven and combined development (U&CD) to produce a novel explanation of ‘Brexit and Trump’ – the two shock political events of 2016. The argument proceeds in three steps. First, we identify the global conjuncture of historical unevenness in which the votes occurred: how the neoliberal transformation of the advanced capitalist countries was synchronized with the radically different process of primitive accumulation in China. Second, we apply the theory of U&CD to this peculiar ‘simultaneity of the non‐simultaneous’: the ‘big country’ effects of China's industrialization, we find, were thrice multiplied by its combination with the advanced sectors of the world economy, which accelerated China's take‐off, brought forward its export phase, and widened its export profile at a moment of maximum openness in international trade. Finally, this produced the pattern of development that led to the events of 2016: the resultant trade shocks intensified the internal inequalities of British and American societies in ways that match the geography of the Leave and Trump votes. The analysis has a wider intellectual implication too, for the phenomena of historical unevenness and combination are intrinsic to the history of the global political economy; and the theory of U&CD therefore has a unique contribution to make to the field of International Political Economy.     

The challenge of inclusive coproduction: The importance of situated rituals and emotional inclusivity in the coproduction of health research projects

Previous studies highlight that coproduced research initiatives are influenced by how individuals interact together and that group inclusivity amongst diverse members is crucial. However, it is not fully understood how inclusivity is sustained over time, particularly through routine encounters. Our study examines how coproduction occurs through routine and ritualistic patterns of everyday practices, which have the potential to facilitate sustainable and inclusive research initiatives. Using ethnographic data with four applied health research projects, we explored how everyday rituals generate and sustain inclusivity. Informed by interactional ritual change theory, we identify two types of interlinked inclusivity: relational, individuals routinely engaging together; and emotional, the feeling of being included. The process of producing and maintaining both types requires ongoing reflexivity from members. Groups with sustained inclusivity build interpersonal momentum through situated practices that enable them to mitigate external pressures and internal disagreements. Where groups experience a breakdown in inclusivity, they also experience a loss of momentum that makes them vulnerable to disintegration and collapse. Building and sustaining inclusivity are worked out through everyday interactions and operate as a feedback loop that sustains the cohesiveness of the network and supports coproduction of knowledge.     

Explaining Attitudes toward Immigrants and Immigration Policy: A Review of the Theoretical Literature

In the research literature on immigration attitudes, there are a number of theories that explain why individuals hold positive or negative opinions of certain immigrant groups and immigration policies. In this review of the literature, the theories are summarized into five categories: personal and social identity, self and group interest, cultural values and beliefs, social interaction, and multilevel theories. The majority of the theories offer explanations that favor one causal direction, focus on social psychology or the social structural environment, and assume that effects are additive rather than interactive. It is argued in this review that scholars would benefit by using multilevel theories, such as group position theory and intersectionality, in order to extend their explanatory reach past the theoretical standards and, in doing so, be able to better examine some understudied but important questions, such as why individuals often hold pro‐ and anti‐immigrant opinions simultaneously. Multilevel theories have the potential to offer a nuanced understanding of immigration attitudes.     

Community reactions to campaigns addressing crystal methamphetamine use among gay and bisexual men in New York City

Crystal methamphetamine (aka "crystal meth") use with high-risk sex has become an emerging health problem for gay and bisexual men in New York City since the late 1990s. Public health campaigns were eventually developed to encourage gay and bisexual men to avoid or reconsider using crystal meth. Reactions to three campaigns were measured with a cross-sectional survey administered in 2004. Among an ethnically-diverse sample of 971 gay and bisexual men, 61.8% reported seeing the campaigns. Those who reported ever using crystal meth, recent use, and recent use with sex were significantly more likely to have seen the campaigns. In general, white men, HIV-negative men, and men not currently using crystal meth responded more positively to the campaigns than their counterparts; yet, more men of color reported having discussions with partners and friends about their crystal use as a result of these campaigns. Implications for researchers and practitioners are discussed.     

Sparse estimation and inference for censored median regression

Censored median regression has proved useful for analyzing survival data in complicated situations, say, when the variance is heteroscedastic or the data contain outliers. In this paper, we study the sparse estimation for censored median regression models, which is an important problem for high dimensional survival data analysis. In particular, a new procedure is proposed to minimize an inverse-censoring-probability weighted least absolute deviation loss subject to the adaptive LASSO penalty and result in a sparse and robust median estimator. We show that, with a proper choice of the tuning parameter, the procedure can identify the underlying sparse model consistently and has desired large-sample properties including root-n consistency and the asymptotic normality. The procedure also enjoys great advantages in computation, since its entire solution path can be obtained efficiently. Furthermore, we propose a resampling method to estimate the variance of the estimator. The performance of the procedure is illustrated by extensive simulations and two real data applications including one microarray gene expression survival data.     

Backcalculation of flexible linear models of the human immunodeficiency virus infection curve

The authors present a regression approach to the backcalculation of flexible linear models of the HIV infection curve. They note that "because expected AIDS incidence can be expressed as a linear function of unknown parameters, regression methods may be used to obtain parameter and covariance estimates for a variety of interesting quantities, such as the expected number of people infected in previous time intervals and the projected AIDS incidence in future time intervals. We exploit these ideas to show that estimates based on maximum likelihood are, for practical purposes, equivalent to approximate estimates based on quasi-likelihood and on Poisson regression. These algorithms are readily implemented on a personal computer." These concepts are illustrated by projecting AIDS incidence in the United States up to 1993.     

Word play, ritual insult, and volleyball in Peru

Many gay men in the popular sectors of Lima, Peru participate in vóley callejero, or street volleyball. The ethnographic data presented in this article describes verbal and corporal mechanisms through which gay identity emerges within the particular context of the street volleyball game, ultimately highlighting the contextual nature of identity. The volleyball players are not just hitting a ball back and forth, they are engaging in a meaningful activity that illuminates intersections of language, sexuality, and identity. Through the manipulation of the street into a volleyball court, the volleyball players create a space conducive to the articulation of particular verbal and embodied practices that index gay identity. The challenge to the regulations of "proper" volleyball through the practice of ritual insulting and the cultivation of gay volleyball technique are playful reconfigurations of gendered practices prominent in the sites where fieldwork was carried out.     

Bayesian feature selection for classification with possibly large number of classes

In what follows, we introduce two Bayesian models for feature selection in high-dimensional data, specifically designed for the purpose of classification. We use two approaches to the problem: one which discards the components which have “almost constant” values (Model 1) and another which retains the components for which variations in-between the groups are larger than those within the groups (Model 2). We assume that p?n, i.e. the number of components p is much larger than the number of samples n, and that only few of those p components are useful for subsequent classification. We show that particular cases of the above two models recover familiar variance or ANOVA-based component selection. When one has only two classes and features are a priori independent, Model 2 reduces to the Feature Annealed Independence Rule (FAIR) introduced by Fan and Fan (2008) and can be viewed as a natural generalization of FAIR to the case of L>2 classes. The performance of the methodology is studies via simulations and using a biological dataset of animal communication signals comprising 43 groups of electric signals recorded from tropical South American electric knife fishes.