Instrumental Variables Estimates of the Effect of Subsidized Training on the Quantiles of Trainee Earnings

This paper reports estimates of the effects of JTPA training programs on the distribution of earnings. The estimation uses a new instrumental variable (IV) method that measures program impacts on quantiles. The quantile treatment effects (QTE) estimator reduces to quantile regression when selection for treatment is exogenously determined. QTE can be computed as the solution to a convex linear programming problem, although this requires first‐step estimation of a nuisance function. We develop distribution theory for the case where the first step is estimated nonparametrically. For women, the empirical results show that the JTPA program had the largest proportional impact at low quantiles. Perhaps surprisingly, however, JTPA training raised the quantiles of earnings for men only in the upper half of the trainee earnings distribution.     

Understanding child sexual abuse by Catholic priests from a situational perspective

Most sexual offense research focuses on offender motivation and individual risk factors rather than the criminal events themselves. This article provides an analysis of data from two studies on child sexual abuse by Catholic priests to help understand the opportunities clergy had or created to abuse youth. Findings show that situational factors played a role in victim choice among a heterogeneous group of abusers. Priests abused more male than female victims and had significantly greater access to male youth historically. When access to female youth increased in the 1990s, abuse of females as a percentage of victims also increased. The article concludes with a discussion about how ecological information can be used to craft intervention policies to prevent sexual offenses.     

Vulnerability to bushfires in rural Australia: A case study from East Gippsland,Victoria

This paper investigates the nature and causes of vulnerability to bushfires in the Wulgulmerang district of East Gippsland, Victoria, in south-eastern Australia. In 2003 bushfires devastated the small population of this isolated farming district, destroying homes, agricultural assets and public infrastructure. The fires also adversely affected the health, livelihoods and social lives of many local people. The paper examines: (i) how and why people were exposed to hazards during the bushfires; and (ii) how and why people were differentially capable of coping and adapting to the fires' impacts. Qualitative methods were primarily used to investigate these questions, including semi-structured interviews with residents and landholders of the district and others who responded to the fires in an official or unofficial capacity. Vulnerability is shown to arise from the circumstances of people's everyday lives, which are shaped by factors both within and beyond their control. Local pressures and challenges – such as drought, declining farm incomes, depopulation, and the inaccessibility of essential services – are shown to increase people's exposure to hazards and reduce their capacities to cope and adapt. The paper demonstrates the fundamental importance of sustainable livelihoods and regional economic vitality to the long-term goal of vulnerability reduction.     

The CLASS Act: is it dead or just sleeping?

The Affordable Care Act (ACA) established a voluntary public insurance program for long-term care: the Community Living Assistance Services and Supports (CLASS) Act. In October 2011, the Obama Administration announced that the program would not be implemented because of the high risk of fiscal insolvency. Under the legislative design, adverse selection was a major risk and premiums would have been very high. This article discusses several CLASS Act design and implementation issues, including the design features that led to the decision not to implement the program: the voluntary enrollment, the weak work requirement, the lifetime and cash benefits, and the premium subsidy for low-income workers and students.     

Fertility decline in the modern world and in the original demographic transition: Testing three theories with cross-national data

This study uses aggregate data on a large number of the world's societies to test three theories of fertility decline in the modern world and in the original demographic transition. One prominent theory relates fertility decline to the changing economic value of children. With industrialization and overall modernization the economic value of children's labor shifts from positive to negative. This interpretation has been challenged by those who claim that the flow of wealth in preindustrial societies is always from parent to child rather than from child to parent. An alternative interpretation is that fertility levels reflect people's efforts to promote their reproductive success, and that this requires the careful tracking of infant and child mortality. Fertility rates are adjusted to the rate of infant and child survival, and will be high when survival rates are low and low when survival rates are high. A third theory emphasizes female empowerment. Fertility will be high when women are highly subordinated to men, but as women gain more autonomy and control over their own lives they reduce their fertility levels because, among other possibilities, higher levels of fertility present them with serious burdens. We tested all three theories through multiple regression analyses performed on two samples of societies, the first a large sample of the world's nation-states during the period between 1960 and 1990, and the second a sample of now-developed societies between 1880 and 1940. Our findings showed that infant mortality was an excellent predictor of fertility, and that female empowerment was a good predictor. However, there was only weak support for the argument that the economic value of children's labor plays an important role in fertility decisions. The findings were discussed in the context of a broader interpretation of fertility behavior in societies with high levels of industrialization and modernization.     

THE SUPERVISORY RELATIONSHIP: AN IDENTIFICATION OF THE PRIMARY ELEMENTS IN THE RELATIONSHIP AND AN APPLICATION OF TWO THEORIES OF ETHICAL RELATIONSHIPS

Many authors on the subject of marriage and family therapy supervision point to the fact that the quality of relationship between supervisor and supervisee is crucial to the process. However, little has been written about the nature of this relationship. This article identifies key elements in the relationship and introduces a theoretical framework for understanding those elements based on the principles of ethical relationships proposed by Ivan Boszormenyi-Nagy and Nell Noddings.