Testing the Permanence of the Permanent Campaign: An Analysis of Presidential Polling Expenditures, 1977 2002

Many presidential observers argue that the modern White Houseis the site of more-or-less permanent campaigning. In a recentPOQ piece, Murray and Howard (2002) [Public Opinion Quarterly66:527–558] explore one indicator of the "permanent campaign,"the extent to which Presidents Carter, Reagan, G.H.W. Bush,and Clinton commissioned independent opinion polls and focusgroups to assist in policymaking and political maneuvering.Murray and Howard suggest that while a sophisticated pollingoperation has been institutionalized in the White House, thereis substantial variation in how much a president uses this operation.In this article, we model presidential polling expendituresover time using monthly figures. We find that presidents donot vary significantly in the average amount spent per monthon polls. There are, however, two recurring patterns of variationwithin presidential administrations: Presidents tend to spendsignificantly more on internal polling during the most intensemonths of a presidential reelection campaign; and polling expendituresincrease over the course of each presidential term. These findingssuggest that there are common forces (e.g., elections, naturaldecline in support) that have driven all presidents since Fordto poll.     

Guidelines for Use of the Approximate Beta‐Poisson Dose–Response Model

For dose–response analysis in quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA), the exact beta‐Poisson model is a two‐parameter mechanistic dose–response model with parameters and , which involves the Kummer confluent hypergeometric function. Evaluation of a hypergeometric function is a computational challenge. Denoting as the probability of infection at a given mean dose d, the widely used dose–response model is an approximate formula for the exact beta‐Poisson model. Notwithstanding the required conditions and , issues related to the validity and approximation accuracy of this approximate formula have remained largely ignored in practice, partly because these conditions are too general to provide clear guidance. Consequently, this study proposes a probability measure Pr(0 < r < 1 | , ) as a validity measure (r is a random variable that follows a gamma distribution; and are the maximum likelihood estimates of α and β in the approximate model); and the constraint conditions for as a rule of thumb to ensure an accurate approximation (e.g., Pr(0 < r < 1 | , ) >0.99) . This validity measure and rule of thumb were validated by application to all the completed beta‐Poisson models (related to 85 data sets) from the QMRA community portal (QMRA Wiki). The results showed that the higher the probability Pr(0 < r < 1 | , ), the better the approximation. The results further showed that, among the total 85 models examined, 68 models were identified as valid approximate model applications, which all had a near perfect match to the corresponding exact beta‐Poisson model dose–response curve.     

Predicting Burnout Syndrome in Greek Mental Health Professionals

The aim of the study was to explore predictors of burnout in clinicians working across different mental health settings in Greece. The Maslach & Jackson Inventory (Maslach Burnout Inventory, MBI; Maslach & Jackson, Journal of Organizational Behavior, 1981, 2(2), 99–113) was used to evaluate burnout syndrome and assess the relationship between demographic factors (age, children, education, and job experience) and each sub-factor (emotional exhaustion (EE), depersonalization (DP), and personal accomplishment (PA)) of the MBI. Results revealed that out of three burnout factors, EE and PA demonstrated one significant predictor each whereas DP showed no significant predictors. In addition, job experience (years in the job) was found to be a significant predictor of EE in clinical staff. Further analysis showed no significant differences across job type for EE, DP, and PA. The findings are discussed with a focus on prevention and coping strategies for clinicians working in mental health settings.     

Understanding Others, and Individual Differences in Friendship Interactions in Young Children

Links between individual differences in 4-year-olds' social understanding, language abilities, temperament, behavioral adjustment and family background and the quality of their interaction with a close friend were investigated. 64 pairs of friends were filmed playing together on two occasions, and each child tested on a battery of assessments of theory of mind, emotion understanding and language. Teachers and mothers reported on children's adjustment and temperament respectively. There were marked differences in children's interactions with their friends; the sociocognitive abilities and behavioral characteristics of both child and friend contributed significantly to cooperative shared pretend, to low frequency of conflict and to successful communication between friends; behavioral adjustment and family background also contributed independently to friendship quality. The similarity between friends in behavioral adjustment and sociolinguistic skills was notable.     

CONSUMER DEBT STRESS,CHANGES IN HOUSEHOLD DEBT,AND THE GREAT RECESSION

This research examines psychological debt stress and changes in household debt holdings for consumers during the Great Recession using data from a monthly national U.S. household survey covering the period 2006 through 2012. Debt stress measures in the population rose by over 50% at the bottom of the recession. Determining relative stress for eight different types of household debt, we find that noncollateralized debts are more stressful than collateralized debt and that during the recession the composition of debt shifted away from collateralized debt and toward noncollateralized. Our empirical results show that women and Hispanics experienced higher measured levels of stress. (JEL D12, D18)     

The Use of Discordant MZ Twins to Generate Hypotheses regarding Non-shared Environmental Influence on Anxiety in Middle Childhood

Non‐shared environmental influence (NSE) has been found to account for around 50 percent of anxiety variance, but specific NSE factors have not been identified. Discordant monozygotic (MZ) twins can be used to generate relevant hypotheses because MZ discordance can be caused by NSE, but not by genes or shared environment. Of 1590 MZ pairs teacher rated for anxiety at the age of seven, we selected the most discordant 19 pairs and conducted interviews with them and their mothers. In explaining discordant anxiety, the mothers emphasised negative school experiences, comparisons within the twin relationship, and illness and accidents. During the maternal interviews neonatal life events, parent–child relationships and peer rejection also emerged as potential NSE sources.     

SELF, IDENTITY, AND DIFFERENCE:

Interesting parallels exist between the thought of George Herbert Mead and some of the writings of contemporary poststructuralists. Both stress the importance of language, the dynamic character of social and cultural life, and the unstable relations of difference. However, where poststructuralists tend to reduce subjectivity and meaning to discourse, Mead sees the subject in behavioral terms and as constituted in a social self. A comparison and contrast of the two approaches reveals limitations of the poststructuralist conception while demonstrating the strengths of Meadian pragmatism and social psychology. Of special importance, Meadian theory implicitly addresses questions of identity and difference, offering a social pragmatic foundation for a discussion of these contemporary themes. The weaknesses of poststructuralism are illustrated by a Meadian critique of the work of Judith Butler, a leading poststructuralist thinker. This critique faults Butler's poststructuralism for lacking an adequate conception of social relations and a notion of self.     

The emotional abuse of elite child athletes by their coaches

This study investigates the prevalence of emotional abuse of elite child athletes by their coaches in the UK. Previous research has focused primarily on the parent–child relationship, with little attention given to date on the sports environment. Participants were 12 former elite child athletes who competed as internationals in their respective age groups. All participants had been identi?ed as elite athletes between the ages of 8 and 16 years (M = 13.1 yr, SD = 2.4 yr) and had competitive careers of between 6 and 10 years. Participants were from the sports of diving (N = 2), football (N = 3), gymnastics (N = 4), hockey, netball and track and ?eld athletics (N = 1 each). The study was a retrospective analysis of their experiences as elite child athletes. (Age at interview: M = 22.9 yr, SD = 0.9 yr. male = 4, female = 8.) Thus, participants were re?ecting on experiences from about 10 years previously, so their responses represented the residual impact of their experiences that had survived over this period. Data were collected using semi‐structured interviews and response‐coding techniques. Abusive behaviours were categorized under eight headings: belittling, humiliating, shouting, scapegoating, rejecting, isolating, threatening and ignoring. Results showed that all (N = 12) of the participants reported experiencing belittling and shouting by their coach, nine athletes reported frequent threatening behaviour, nine reported frequent humiliation, seven reported scapegoating, six reported rejection or being ignored and four reported being isolated when they were elite child athletes. All participants reported that the behaviour of their coaches changed and became more negative after they were identi?ed as elite performers. Participants reported feeling stupid, worthless, upset, less con?dent, humiliated, depressed, fearful and angry as a result of the behaviour of their coaches. The results provide tentative evidence that the behaviour of some coaches is a threat to the psychological well‐being of elite child athletes. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Simulating percentile points: stopping rules,precision, and scale

Two stopping rules are defined for the purpose of minimizing the number of iterations needed to provide simulated percentile points with a certain precision: one stopping rule is a result of defining precision relative to the scale of the random variable while the other is a result of defining precision relative to the tail area of the distribution. A simulation experiment is conducted to investigate the effects of the stopping rules as well as the effects of changes in scale. The effects of interest are the precision of the simulated percentile point and the number of iterations needed to achieve that precision. It is shown that the stopping rules are effective in reducing the number of iterations while providing an acceptable precision in the percentile points. Also, increases in scale produce increases in the number of iterations and/or decreases in certain measures of precision