Exploration of associations between governance and economics and country level foot-and-mouth disease status by using Bayesian model averaging

Summary.  Using Bayesian model averaging, we quantify associations of governance and economic health with country level presence of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) and estimate the probability of the presence of FMD in each country from 1997 to 2005. The Bayesian model averaging accounted for countries' previous FMD status and other possible confounders, as well as uncertainty about the 'true' model, and provided accurate predictions (90% specificity and 80% sensitivity). This model represents a novel approach to predicting FMD, and other conditions, on a global scale and in identifying important risk factors that can be applied to global policy and allocation of resources for disease control.     

Genetics of pathological gambling

Pathological gambling (PG) is an impulse control disorder and a model behavioral addiction. Familial factors have been observed in clinical studies of pathological gamblers, and twin studies have demonstrated a genetic influence contributing to the development of PG. Serotonergic, noradrenergic, and dopaminergic dysfunction have been reported as biological factors contributing to the pathophysiology of PG. Molecular genetic techniques have been used to investigate the role of genetic factors in PG. Molecular genetic research has identified specific allele variants of candidate genes corresponding to these neurotransmitter systems to be associated with PG. Associations have been reported between pathological gamblers and allele variants of polymorphisms at dopamine receptor genes, the serotonin transporter gene, and the monoamine-oxidase A gene. Although preliminary data suggest that some of these differences are gender-specific, more research needs to be performed to substantiate gender-specific genetic contributions to the development of pathological gambling. The review of the current findings on genetics of PG suggests that liability to PG is in part mediated by genetic factors. Additional studies are needed to replicate and extend these findings, as well as to better understand the influence of specific allelic variants to differences in biological and behavioral functioning.     

Teachers’ Attitudes about the Integration of Roma:the case of Spain

This article, taking data from my thesis dissertation, examines the attitudes of Spanish teachers towards Roma children (and other ethnic/cultural minorities) in their schools, and the role that teachers, schools, parents and the community play with regard to the integration of Roma in schools and in society. Although teachers’ views of Roma are, on the whole, positive, confusion between acculturation and integration exists in some cases. With the intention of shedding some light on these attitudes, the Roma community within Spain's multicultural context is introduced, and general data provided.

This work is based on original research undertaken in 1996/97, mainly through questionnaires distributed in state primary schools consisting of 25% or more ethnic/cultural minorities. The questionnaire included both closed and open questions.

     

Certifiable Pre‐Play Communication: Full Disclosure

This article asks when communication with certifiable information leads to complete information revelation. We consider Bayesian games augmented by a pre‐play communication phase in which announcements are made publicly. We first characterize the augmented games in which there exists a fully revealing sequential equilibrium with extremal beliefs (i.e., any deviation is attributed to a single type of the deviator). Next, we define a class of games for which existence of a fully revealing equilibrium is equivalent to a richness property of the evidence structure. This characterization enables us to provide different sets of sufficient conditions for full information disclosure that encompass and extend all known results in the literature, and are easily applicable. We use these conditions to obtain new insights in games with strategic complementarities, voting with deliberation, and persuasion games with multidimensional types.     

Gap analysis key to super growth

Micheal J. Kami contributed substantially to the early development of Corporate Planning. He was responsible for establishing the long range planning system at I.B.M. (1959–1964) and at Xerox Corporation (1964–1967). For the Journal he decided to write “something short and simple as a contrast to the rather complicated operations research type articles that appear in the first issue. There is nothing wrong with complexity except that the key and vital issues in corporations are not decided in that way”. In this brief article he, explains the concept of “gap analysis” and explains how it may be used to force top management to make continual and realistic comparisons between their stated objectives and the forecast results of present plans.