Time series analysis of categorical data using auto-odds ratio function

In this paper, we consider the auto-odds ratio function (AORF) as a measure of serial association for a stationary time series process of categorical data at two different time points. Numerical measures such as the autocorrelation function (ACF) have no meaningful interpretation, unless the time series data are numerical. Instead, we use the AORF as a measure of association to study the serial dependency of the categorical time series for both ordinal and nominal categories. Biswas and Song [Discrete-valued ARMA processes. Stat Probab Lett. 2009;79(17):1884–1889] provided some results on this measure for Pegram's operator-based AR(1) process with binary responses. Here, we extend this measure to more general set-ups, i.e. for AR(p) and MA(q) processes and for a general number of categories. We discuss how this method can effectively be used in parameter estimation and model selection. Following Weiß [Empirical measures of signed serial dependence in categorical time series. J Stat Comput Simul. 2011;81(4):411–429], we derive the large sample distribution of the estimator of the AORF under independent and identically distributed (iid) set-up. Some simulation results and two categorical data examples (one is ordinal and other nominal) are presented to illustrate the proposed method.     

Large sample test criteria on Toeplitz covariance structure

In the analysis of stationary stochastic process, one has to deal with covariance matrix of Toeplitz (or Laurent) structure. Such structure has a feature that not only the elements on the principal diagonal but also those lying on each of the parallel sub-diagonals are equal as well. The present investigation is on the problem of large sample testing of the Toeplitz pattern of the population covariance matrix. Apart from usual application of likelihood ratio and Rao’s efficient score criteria, some heuristic two-stage tests are suggested. The results of Monte Carlo experiment are reported for the size of the proposed tests.     

Test for comparing complete expectations of life of two groups

Abstract

Complete expectation of life of an individual gives an intuitive and interesting perspective on the ageing process and is an important concept in the insurance sector for determination of premium. We propose a new test for testing equality of complete expectations of life of two groups/populations. Power of the new test is calculated through simulations and compared with the power of the tests given by Berger, Boos, and Guess (1988 Berger, R. L., D. D. Boos, and F. M. Guess. 1988. Tests and confidence sets for comparing two mean residual life functions. Biometrics 44 (1):103–15.[Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) and Aly (1997 Aly, E. E. A. A. 1997. Nonparametric tests for comparing two mean residual life functions. Lifetime Data Analysis 3 (4):353–66.[Crossref], [PubMed] , [Google Scholar]). It is observed that the proposed test statistic is more powerful than the competing tests for the cases considered in this paper. A real life illustration is included.     

Bias correction in logistic regression with missing categorical covariates

Logistic regression plays an important role in many fields. In practice, we often encounter missing covariates in different applied sectors, particularly in biomedical sciences. Ibrahim (1990) proposed a method to handle missing covariates in generalized linear model (GLM) setup. It is well known that logistic regression estimates using small or medium sized missing data are biased. Considering the missing data that are missing at random, in this paper we have reduced the bias by two methods; first we have derived a closed form bias expression using Cox and Snell (1968), and second we have used likelihood based modification similar to Firth (1993). Here we have analytically shown that the Firth type likelihood modification in Ibrahim led to the second order bias reduction. The proposed methods are simple to apply on an existing method, need no analytical work, with the exception of a little change in the optimization function. We have carried out extensive simulation studies comparing the methods, and our simulation results are also supported by a real world data.     

Small-area estimation based on survey data from a left-censored Fay-Herriot model

This paper develops methodology for survey estimation and small-area prediction using Fay-Herriot (1979) models in which the responses are left-censored. Parameter and small-area estimators are derived both by censored-data likelihoods and by an estimating-equation approach which adjusts a Fay-Herriot analysis restricted to the uncensored observations. Formulas for variances of estimators and mean-squared errors of small-area predictions are provided and supported by a simulation study. The methodology is applied to provide diagnostics for the left-censored Fay-Herriot model which are illustrated in the context of the Census Bureau's ongoing Small-Area Income and Poverty Estimation (SAIPE) project.     

研究古丝路上族群跨国流动的经验推动“一带一路”的发展

古丝绸之路上的族群流动,曾促使一些帝国崛起;也曾使一些国家民族间构建起利益共同体而放弃战争;还有经贸、科技文化跨国交流而使文明共享和民富国强的经验,如此等等.这类古丝路的人文宝藏,如果进行深入研究发掘,对今天一带一路建设会起举足轻重的作用.本文试图选择一些有关史实进行这方面探讨.     

Maximum likelihood estimation of the linearly structured correlation matrix by a Jacobi-type iterative scheme

Mukherjee and Maiti [Q-procedure for solving likelihood equations in the analysis of covariance structures, Comput. Statist. Quart. 2 (1988), pp. 105–128] proposed an iterative scheme to derive the maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters involved in the population covariance matrix when it is linearly structured. The present investigation provides a Jacobi-type of iterative scheme, MSIII, when the underlying correlation matrix is linearly structured. Such scheme is shown to be quite competent and efficient compared to the prevalent Fisher-scoring (FS) and the Newton–Raphson iterative scheme (NR). An illustrative example is provided for a numerical comparison of the iterates of MSIII, FS and NR choosing the Toeplitz matrix as the population correlation matrix. Numerical behaviour of such schemes is studied in the context of ‘bad’ initial try-out vectors. Additionally a simulation experiment is performed to judge the superiority of MSIII over FS.     

A Selection Procedure for Selecting the Least Increasing Failure Rate Average Distribution

For k independent absolutely continuous increasing failure rate average (IFRA) life distributions F_i, i = 1, 2, …, k, Link (1989 Link, W.A. (1989). Testing for exponentiality against monotone failure rate average alternatives. Commun. Statist. Theor. Meth. 18(8): 3009–3017.[Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) considered a measure of departure of against monotone failure rate average alternatives. In this paper, we use the measure defined by Link for detection of IFRA-ness of life distribution F_i. A two-stage selection procedure to select the least IFRA distribution is proposed. This selection procedure is based on a U-statistic which is an estimator of the measure and can be implemented even when the IFRA life distributions belong to different families. The applications of this procedure are discussed for some well known distributions.     

Borrowing strength from past data in small domain prediction by kalman filtering - a case

Point and interval estimators for small domains based exclusively on current and domain specific sample observations are generally ineffective because of inadequate sample-sizes. So, borrowing strength from sample values for analogous domains and simultaneously from all relevant past and auxiliary data is useful in deriving improved small domain statistics. Postulating for simplicity a linear regression model with a single covariate and a zero intercept but a time-specific domain-invariant slope we start with “synthetic” generalized regression predictors for the domain totals. These borrow across only domains. For further improvements a simple autoregressive model is postulated for the slope parameters. Employing Kalman filtering the previous predictors are revised to borrow supplementary strength across time. As drastic simplifying assumptions are needed in such predictions the efficacy of the procedure is examined through an empirical exercise using live data as well as simulations. The numerical findings turn out encouraging.     

Prediction Error of Small Area Predictors Shrinking Both Means and Variances

The article considers a new approach for small area estimation based on a joint modelling of mean and variances. Model parameters are estimated via expectation–maximization algorithm. The conditional mean squared error is used to evaluate the prediction error. Analytical expressions are obtained for the conditional mean squared error and its estimator. Our approximations are second‐order correct, an unwritten standardization in the small area literature. Simulation studies indicate that the proposed method outperforms the existing methods in terms of prediction errors and their estimated values.