Diversity without difference: modelling ‘the real’ in the social aesthetic of a London multicultural school

This article analyses the social aesthetic of the visual displays of a multicultural London primary school. It shows that the social aesthetic of the school models the school as a site of the ‘real’ in Baudrillard's sense of a ‘real’ that is a simulacra of the real, one from which the violence that is produced within and is constitutive of capitalism is expelled. In this view ‘race’ is not a division of humanity caused by racism, it is simply a cultural sign marking diversity. Difference, in the sense of racialised inequalities or racism, can be expelled from the system without ‘race’ itself being expelled. By the same logic, nationalism, as an exclusionary ideology, is separated out from national identity, which becomes simply one of a range of cultural resources that children can draw on in assembling the self.     

Back under the Microscope: Insights from Evidence on Budget Support

This article analyses evidence for each of the expected benefits of budget support in turn, and finds the biggest improvements in the pro‐poor nature of public expenditure and public financial management. More modest improvements are noted in the predictability of aid and the burden of transaction costs, while less is known about the real effects on domestic accountability. Underlying them all is an assessment that programmes are incapable of ‘buying’ reforms. Drawing on the analysis, seven areas are highlighted where budget support design can be strengthened vis‐à‐vis its original rationale.     

Repurposing Materials and Waste through Online Exchanges: Overcoming the Last Hurdle

Online material and waste exchanges (OMWEs) provide online channels to repurpose by‐products, unused materials and waste from industrial and commercial facilities. Unfortunately, OMWE's also have challenges. First, sellers may have access to other disposal options and, as a result, may not fully commit to the exchange. Second, buyers can face high uncertainty about the product exchanged and the transaction being undertaken. Overcoming these challenges is the “last hurdle” to making OMWEs successful. This study investigates the factors that reduce the buyers' uncertainty and increase the sellers' commitment to the OMWE. We analyze novel transaction‐level data from an online exchange (MNExchange.org) combined with other archival public records on county‐level repurposing and disposal statistics. First, we find that regional repurposing policies and alternatives have a complementary effect on sellers' commitment toward OMWEs, resulting in increased OMWE exchanges. However, regional disposal policies and alternatives have a substitution effect on sellers' commitment, resulting in reduced exchange success. Further, greater product and transaction information reduce the buyer's uncertainty and increase exchange success. Finally, the analysis shows that users' (buyers and sellers) heavily rely on their prior experience with OMWEs. Specifically, higher familiarity between the buyer–seller pair and familiarity with the OMWE system leads to higher likelihood of exchange success. This study lays the foundation for understanding OMWEs and has important implications for developing policies and operations to increase online transactions of by‐products, materials and wastes.     

Modelling PK/QT relationships from Phase I dose‐escalation trials for drug combinations and developing quantitative risk assessments of clinically relevant QT prolongations

In current industry practice, it is difficult to assess QT effects at potential therapeutic doses based on Phase I dose‐escalation trials in oncology due to data scarcity, particularly in combinations trials. In this paper, we propose to use dose‐concentration and concentration‐QT models jointly to model the exposures and effects of multiple drugs in combination. The fitted models then can be used to make early predictions for QT prolongation to aid choosing recommended dose combinations for further investigation. The models consider potential correlation between concentrations of test drugs and potential drug–drug interactions at PK and QT levels. In addition, this approach allows for the assessment of the probability of QT prolongation exceeding given thresholds of clinical significance. The performance of this approach was examined via simulation under practical scenarios for dose‐escalation trials for a combination of two drugs. The simulation results show that invaluable information of QT effects at therapeutic dose combinations can be gained by the proposed approaches. Early detection of dose combinations with substantial QT prolongation is evaluated effectively through the CIs of the predicted peak QT prolongation at each dose combination. Furthermore, the probability of QT prolongation exceeding a certain threshold is also computed to support early detection of safety signals while accounting for uncertainty associated with data from Phase I studies. While the prediction of QT effects is sensitive to the dose escalation process, the sensitivity and limited sample size should be considered when providing support to the decision‐making process for further developing certain dose combinations. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Asymmetric Forecast Densities for U.S. Macroeconomic Variables from a Gaussian Copula Model of Cross-Sectional and Serial Dependence

Most existing reduced-form macroeconomic multivariate time series models employ elliptical disturbances, so that the forecast densities produced are symmetric. In this article, we use a copula model with asymmetric margins to produce forecast densities with the scope for severe departures from symmetry. Empirical and skew t distributions are employed for the margins, and a high-dimensional Gaussian copula is used to jointly capture cross-sectional and (multivariate) serial dependence. The copula parameter matrix is given by the correlation matrix of a latent stationary and Markov vector autoregression (VAR). We show that the likelihood can be evaluated efficiently using the unique partial correlations, and estimate the copula using Bayesian methods. We examine the forecasting performance of the model for four U.S. macroeconomic variables between 1975:Q1 and 2011:Q2 using quarterly real-time data. We find that the point and density forecasts from the copula model are competitive with those from a Bayesian VAR. During the recent recession the forecast densities exhibit substantial asymmetry, avoiding some of the pitfalls of the symmetric forecast densities from the Bayesian VAR. We show that the asymmetries in the predictive distributions of GDP growth and inflation are similar to those found in the probabilistic forecasts from the Survey of Professional Forecasters. Last, we find that unlike the linear VAR model, our fitted Gaussian copula models exhibit nonlinear dependencies between some macroeconomic variables. This article has online supplementary material.     

Investigating impacts of complex sampling on latent growth curve modelling

We investigate the impacts of complex sampling on point and standard error estimates in latent growth curve modelling of survey data. Methodological issues are illustrated with empirical evidence from the analysis of longitudinal data on life satisfaction trajectories using data from the British Household Panel Survey, a national representative survey in Great Britain. A multi-process second-order latent growth curve model with conditional linear growth is used to study variation in the two perceived life satisfaction latent factors considered. The benefits of accounting for the complex survey design are considered, including obtaining unbiased both point and standard error estimates, and therefore correctly specified confidence intervals and statistical tests. We conclude that, even for the rather elaborated longitudinal data models that were considered, estimation procedures are affected by variance-inflating impacts of complex sampling.     

Connecting the gendered door: women, violence and doorwork

This paper explores the emerging role of women who work as 'bouncers', or doorstaff, in the night-time economy and examines how the cultural capital of the female bouncer is connected to the methods utilized to control licensed premises. It is drawn from a study that combined ethnographic observations and interviews in five major UK cities which explored a diverse range of issues such as gendered bodies, femininities and violence; the changing needs of the night-time economy in the UK and the experiences of women engaged in 'non-traditional' occupations. In this paper, we draw on interview data with one particular category of female door staff; women who share similar histories of exposure to violence and violent cultures, and we examine how their experiential knowledge of violence equips them with the resources to 'work the doors'. Our attention focuses on this group of women, who we refer to as 'The Connected', and examine how they are 'doing gender' when they negotiate violence 'on the door'     

Employment status of women with disabilities from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance Survey (1995-2002)

Among working aged adults (18-64) with disabilities, three out of 10 (32%) work full or part-time, compared to eight out of 10 (81%) of those without disabilities [9]. In addition, 24.7% of women with a severe disability and 27.8% of men with a severe disability are employed, while women with a non-severe disability have an employment rate of 68.4% and men with a non-severe disability have an employment rate of 85.1% [14]. This study examined data from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance Survey from 1995-2002 to determine whether or not disparities exist in the rate of unemployment for women with disabilities, compared to men with disabilities and women and men without disabilities. In addition, regression analysis looked at the how disability and gender predict the outcome of unemployment. Results showed that there has been essentially no change with regard to employment for any of these populations. In addition, disability and gender were found to be the strongest predictors of unemployment for women with disabilities. Possible explanations were discussed as to the reasons for the results and issues were presented for future research.     

Applying the use of activity in the assessment of malingering: A case illustration

The assessment of malingering has predominantly been considered within the domains of neuropsychologists and psychiatrists, who use consistency of performance criteria similar to those used in functional capacity evaluations (FCE). The use of activity has traditionally been used in occupational therapy as an assessment and treatment modality with goals not always considered obvious and which could easily be used for diversional reasons. The appropriate use of activity adds an additional dimension to a layered approach of using multiple data sources and methods as recommended by FCE practitioners and neuropsychologists alike. The case illustration aims to explain the above using a layered model.