Are baby boomers who care for their older parents planning for their own future long-term care needs?

A rapidly expanding number of baby boomers provide care to aging parents. This study examines associations between caregiver status and outcomes related to awareness and anticipation of future long-term care (LTC) needs using 2007 Connecticut Long-Term Care Needs Assessment survey data. Baby boomers who were adult child caregivers (n = 353) versus baby boomers who were not (n = 1242) were more likely to anticipate some future LTC needs and to have considered certain financing strategies. Although baby boomer adult child caregivers more readily anticipate some future LTC needs, they are not taking specific actions. It is important to address the need for public education directed toward those who are currently (or have recently completed) caring for aging parents.     

Estimating driver crash risks based on the extended Bradley–Terry model: an induced exposure method

Quantifying driver crash risks has been difficult because the exposure data are often incompatible with crash frequency data. Induced exposure methods provide a promising idea that a relative measurement of driver crash risks can be derived solely from crash frequency data. This paper describes an application of the extended Bradley–Terry model for paired preferences to estimating driver crash risks. We estimate the crash risk for driver groups defined by driver–vehicle characteristics from log-linear models in terms of a set of relative risk scores by using only crash frequency data. Illustrative examples using police-reported crash data from Hawaii are presented.     

Simple belief elicitation: An experimental evaluation

Journal of Risk and Uncertainty - We present a method for eliciting beliefs about probabilities when multiple realisations of an outcome are available, the “frequency” method. The...     

Rising powers,people rising: neo-liberalization and its discontents in the BRICS countries

ABSTRACT

The rise of the BRICS countries – Brazil, Russia, China, India, and South Africa – has called into question the future of Western dominance in world markets and geopolitics. However, the developmental trajectories of the BRICS countries are shot through with socio-economic fault lines that relegate large numbers of people to the margins of current growth processes, where life is characterized by multiple and overlapping vulnerabilities. These socio-economic fault lines have, in turn, given rise to political convulsions across the BRICS countries, ranging from single-issue protests to sustained social movements oriented towards structural transformation. This article presents an innovative theoretical framework for theorizing the emerging political economy of development in the BRICS countries centred on neo-liberalization, precarity, and popular struggles. It discusses the contributions to this special issue in terms of how they illuminate the intersection between neo-liberalization, precarity, and popular struggle in Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa.     

Three Steps Strategy to Search for Optimum Classification Trees

This article presents a new strategy to construct classification trees. According to the proposed scheme, we focused on keeping the record of sequences of each constructed classification tree; both in terms of splitting predictors and their splitting values in an array. So overall we have as many arrays as we have drawn samples. At this stage, a three steps strategy is introduced, which is used to search for the optimum classification tree. The proposed strategy provides comparable or improved results in terms of generalized error rates than tree and rpart (packages available for classification purposes in the R) using four of the well-known evaluation functions, that is, the Gini, the Entropy, the Twoing, and the Exponent-based function to split nodes for many real-life datasets.     

Confirmatory Factor Analysis of Ordinal Data Using Full‐Information Adaptive Quadrature

We conducted confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) of responses (N=803) to a self‐reported measure of optimism, using full‐information estimation via adaptive quadrature (AQ), an alternative estimation method for ordinal data. We evaluated AQ results in terms of the number of iterations required to achieve convergence, model fit, parameter estimates, standard errors (SE), and statistical significance, across four link‐functions (logit, probit, log‐log, complimentary log‐log) using 3–10 and 20 quadrature points. We compared AQ results with those obtained using maximum likelihood, robust maximum likelihood, and robust diagonally weighted least‐squares estimation. Compared to the other two link‐functions, logit and probit not only produced fit statistics, parameters estimates, SEs, and levels of significance that varied less across numbers of quadrature points, but also fitted the data better and provided larger completely standardised loadings than did maximum likelihood and diagonally weighted least‐squares. Our findings demonstrate the viability of using full‐information AQ to estimate CFA models with real‐world ordinal data.     

Impact of the psychosocial work environment on registered absence from work: A two-year longitudinal study using the IPAW cohort

During the Intervention Project on Absence and Well-being (IPAW), a 5-year project conducted in Denmark, we investigated psychosocial work environment factors as independent predictors of the number of absence days per year. The present two-year longitudinal study used the IPAW cohort, but was not intended to study intervention effects, which will be reported later. Data were derived from baseline questionnaires and employers’ registers of absence for 1919 participants (1305 women, 614 men, mainly in low-skilled jobs) in different occupations from 52 workplaces. These workplaces included municipal care, municipal technical services and a large pharmaceutical company. Analyses were performed by Poisson regression accounting for over-dispersion. After controlling for age, family type, health behaviours and physical work environment variables, we found that high levels of decision authority predicted low absence rates in both women and men. We tested two new psychosocial constructs developed for this study: Predictability (relating to being informed on future events at work) and Meaning of Work (relating to how meaningful and useful the work is perceived to be). Higher Predictability was a significant predictor of lower absence rates in men. This study adds to the body of evidence that the psychosocial working environment influences absence and should therefore be considered to be an important target for intervention.