Multinomial Selection Problem: A Study of BEM and AVC Algorithms

The two well-known and widely used multinomial selection procedures Bechhofor, Elmaghraby, and Morse (BEM) and all vector comparison (AVC) are critically compared in applications related to simulation optimization problems.

Two configurations of population probability distributions in which the best system has the greatest probability p _i of yielding the largest value of the performance measure and has or does not have the largest expected performance measure were studied.

The numbers achieved by our simulations clearly show that none of the studied procedures outperform the other in all situations. The user must take into consideration the complexity of the simulations and the performance measure probability distribution properties when deciding which procedure to employ.

An important discovery was that the AVC does not work in populations in which the best system has the greatest probability p _i of yielding the largest value of the performance measure but does not have the largest expected performance measure.     

Walk-in Together: A pilot study of a walk-in online family therapy intervention

Many Australians are requiring mental health care, including families, leading to long wait times in order to access support. Walk-in therapy reduces barriers to mental health support services by providing support at the time that families seek help. This paper presents a proof-of-concept study investigating the acceptability and short-term effectiveness of an online walk-in family therapy service, Walk-in Together (WIT). Part 1 of the paper describes the experiences of 44 family members from 22 families who presented to a public family therapy clinic for a virtual walk-in family therapy session. The session was conducted by a team of three experienced family therapists. Family members' experiences were sought pre-session, post-session, and at 6 weeks follow-up via survey and interview. Part 2 of the paper explores therapist perceptions (n = 7) of the WIT approach, through thematic analysis of semi-structured interview data. Post-session feedback showed 85% of family members found WIT to be helpful and 50% were optimistic about their future as a family after their WIT session. Six weeks post-session it was revealed that WIT supported planning for families in equipping them to move forward with 88% of family members reporting that they knew what to do after the session. All therapists uniformly experienced the model as offering a timely and beneficial service, suitable for diverse presentations and constellations of families. These preliminary results suggest the significant utility of this WIT intervention as a well-received and helpful service for families, who valued the easy access and rapid therapeutic response afforded by the online, walk-in delivery model. This proof-of-concept paper suggests the potential for further development and growth of WIT, as well as other mental health support services using a walk-in, telehealth model to meet the rising demand for therapeutic support for families in distress.     

Moving on from ramps? The utility of the social model of disability for facilitating experiences of nature for disabled children

Experiences of nature have been shown to be beneficial for disabled children; however, opportunities for disabled children to experience nature are often limited. The social model of disability may provide a theoretical base for increasing access to nature for pupils at Special Educational Needs (SEN) schools. Using results from interviews conducted with teachers from seven SEN schools, considered alongside responses from interviews with staff from six environmental centres, this paper seeks to identify the specific constraints that may act upon the opportunities for disabled pupils to visit environmental centres. The research finds that a ‘medicalised’ approach to access may impede upon environmental centres’ ability to cater effectively to the needs of SEN school groups. Dialogue between environmental centres and SEN school teachers is recommended as a means of facilitating SEN school group access.     

Jenseits der Regelbarkeit? Nutzung Informeller Dynamiken von Kommunikation und Gruppenrollen zur Steuerung virtueller Gruppen

Communication and team structure are of fundamental relevance for the guidance of virtual collaboration: for diagnosis and analysis of existing structures, surveillance and evaluation as well as deliberate intervention and solving conflicts. In particular for managing pending changes, knowledge about internal group dynamics is utterly helpful, to take the interests of all participants within the realm of possibility into account, utilise internal synergies und minimize efforts and resistance in this way. In this study communication- and group structure of teams in virtual inter- and intraorganizational networks have been investigated. Besides the formal roles, the informal roles within the teams have also been identified with the aid of sociometric items. These have been related to both formal and informal communication to analyse possible correlations between the team roles and its communication.     

Kooperation bei Großschadensereignissen

In cases of major emergencies a whole range of organizations has to cooperate quickly and efficiently. This situation poses a challenge to cooperation and communication. The article sketches some problem areas typical for the cooperation in disaster situations which have been identified in interviews with representatives of the organizations involved, by participatory observation and in a survey of the relevant literature. These problem areas are analyzed against the background of systems-theoretical considerations on cooperation in organizational networks. On this basis the authors develop a multi-level counselling model for improving the cooperation in major emergencies.     

Analysis of Deviance for Hypothesis Testing in Generalized Partially Linear Models

In this study, we develop nonparametric analysis of deviance tools for generalized partially linear models based on local polynomial fitting. Assuming a canonical link, we propose expressions for both local and global analysis of deviance, which admit an additivity property that reduces to analysis of variance decompositions in the Gaussian case. Chi-square tests based on integrated likelihood functions are proposed to formally test whether the nonparametric term is significant. Simulation results are shown to illustrate the proposed chi-square tests and to compare them with an existing procedure based on penalized splines. The methodology is applied to German Bundesbank Federal Reserve data.     

An Extended Single‐index Model with Missing Response at Random

An extended single‐index model is considered when responses are missing at random. A three‐step estimation procedure is developed to define an estimator for the single‐index parameter vector by a joint estimating equation. The proposed estimator is shown to be asymptotically normal. An algorithm for computing this estimator is proposed. This algorithm only involves one‐dimensional nonparametric smoothers, thereby avoiding the data sparsity problem caused by high model dimensionality. Some simulation studies are conducted to investigate the finite sample performances of the proposed estimators.     

Multinomial Selection in the Presence of Infinite Alternatives

We propose a new procedure for the multinomial selection problem to solve a real problem of any modern Air Force: the elaboration of better air-to-air tactics for Beyond Visual Range air-to-air combat that maximize its aircraft survival probability H(θ, ω), as well as enemy aircraft downing probability G(θ, ω). In this study, using a low-resolution simulator with generic parameters for the aircraft and missiles, we could increase an average success rate of 16.69% and 16.23% for H(θ, ω) and G(θ, ω), respectively, to an average success rate of 76.85% and 79.30%. We can assure with low probability of being wrong that the selected tactic has greater probability of yielding greater success rates in both H(θ, ω) and G(θ, ω) than any simulated tactic.     

The Courtship Dance: Patterns of Nonverbal Synchronization in Opposite-Sex Encounters

This study examines the existence of behavioral correlates of synchronization on different levels of analysis and methods. We were unable to demonstrate a relation between synchronization defined in terms of movement echo or position mirroring and subjective experience of pleasure and interest in opposite-sex encounters. Significant results were found for a phenomenon we describe as hierarchically patterned synchronization. These patterns were identified with the help of a newly developed search algorithm. If a female is interested in a male, highly complex patterns of behavior with a constant time structure emerge. The patterns are pair-specific and independent from behavioral content. This rhythmic structure of interactions is discussed in functional terms of human courtship.     

Making ends meet,in the household and on the planet

Policy‐making in relation to sustainable development is usually at the national (or, in relation to climate change, the global) level, yet the consumption it seeks to modify takes place at the household level. If households all ‘made ends meet’ in the same way then the much‐relied‐upon notion of per capita consumption would be valid and we could use ‘top‐down’ modelling to guide policy. Cultural Theory, however, predicts that there are five socially viable ways of making ends meet, and that all of them will be found (in varying proportions) within any nation. This prediction has been tested on a sample of 220 British households and shown to be well supported. Top‐down modelling, it is argued, has to give way to constructive interplay between the reflexive policy‐maker and a plurally responsive citizenry.