Practical bayesian approaches to the analystcs of a 2×2 contingency table with incompletely categorized data

To assess the efficacy of a treatment, patients are administered a pre-test, the treatment, and a post-test (identical to the pre-test). These patients are then categorized according to their outcomes observed on both tests,e.g., (S,S), (S,F), etc. Also, we observe "incomplete" information on the pre-tests' outcomes for some patients and the results of only the post-test being known for thers, A Bayesian framework is fit to the problem and Bayes factors, posterior odds ratios, and utility functions are given to evaluate th e treatment, A method of assessing the prior distribution is specified and a numerical example is worked.     

Gibbs sampling for marginal posterior expectations

In earlier work (Gelfand and Smith, 1990 and Gelfand et al, 1990) a sampling based approach using the Gibbs sampler was offered as a means for developing marginal posterior densities for a wide range of Bayesian problems several of which were previously inaccessible. Our purpose here is two-fold. First we flesh out the implementation of this approach for calculation of arbitrary expectations of interest. Secondly we offer comparison with perhaps the most prominent approach for calculating posterior expectations, analytic approximation involving application of the LaPlace method. Several illustrative examples are discussed as well. Clear advantages for the sampling based approach emerge.     

An evaluation of population projection errors for census tracts

"In this article we evaluate the accuracy and bias of projections of total population and population by age group for census tracts in three counties in Florida. We use [U.S. census] data from 1970 and 1980 and several simple extrapolation techniques to produce projections for 1990; we then compare these projections with 1990 census counts and evaluate the differences. For the total sample, we find mean absolute errors of 17%-20% for the three most accurate techniques for projecting total population and find no indication of overall bias. For individual age groups, mean absolute errors range from 20%-29%." This is a revised version of a paper presented at the 1993 Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America.     

Globalization, the structure of the world economy and economic development

How does the structure of the world economy determine the gains from participation therein? In order to answer this question, we conduct a state of the art network analysis of international trade to map the structure of the international division of labor (IDL). We regress cross-national variation in economic growth on positional variation and mobility of countries within the IDL from 1965 to 2000. We find that the highest rates of economic growth occurred to countries in the middle of the IDL over the course of globalization. Second, we find that upper tier positions in the IDL are converging with each other, but diverging from the lower tier. This suggests that the mechanism underlying the rapid economic growth in intermediate positions was their uniquely high rates of upward mobility, in turn a function of their middling position. Taken together, these findings suggest that a country’s long-term economic development is conditioned by its position in the IDL.     

Navigating New Socio-Demographic Landscapes: Using Anthropological Demography to Understand the ‘Persistence’ of High and Early Fertility Among British Pakistanis

British Pakistanis continue to have earlier and higher fertility than other ethnic groups in the UK, despite a recent rise in educational and employment opportunities for British Pakistani women. In this paper we present findings from an interview-based study with 91 British Pakistani women and men in the Northeast of England, in order to throw some light on the reproductive choices and constraints that underlie this apparent demographic anomaly. Drawing on detailed reproductive narratives, we show that, contrary to common assumptions within the literature, relatively high and early fertility does not necessarily indicate a passive acceptance of ??cultural norms?? or a reluctance to engage with new social and economic opportunities. For some young women at least, early motherhood represents a deliberate and strategic choice: a way of managing different sets of family-building and other aspirations, embedded within a complex interplay of relationships between individuals, couples and wider families. This study contributes to the emerging ??inter-discipline?? of anthropological demography, which offers important insights into population processes that neither discipline can do alone.     

Overcoming the ‘tyranny of the urgent’: integrating gender into disease outbreak preparedness and response

ABSTRACT

This article contributes to discussions on the gender dimensions of disease outbreaks, and preparedness policies and responses, by providing a multi-level analysis of gender-related gaps, particularly illustrating how the failure to challenge gender assumptions and incorporate gender as a priority at the global level has national and local impacts. The implications of neglecting gender dynamics, as well as the potential of equity-based approaches to disease outbreak responses, is illustrated through a case study of the Social Enterprise Network for Development (SEND) Sierra Leone, a non-government organisation (NGO) based in Kailahun, during the Ebola outbreak.     

Asymmetric Forecast Densities for U.S. Macroeconomic Variables from a Gaussian Copula Model of Cross-Sectional and Serial Dependence

Most existing reduced-form macroeconomic multivariate time series models employ elliptical disturbances, so that the forecast densities produced are symmetric. In this article, we use a copula model with asymmetric margins to produce forecast densities with the scope for severe departures from symmetry. Empirical and skew t distributions are employed for the margins, and a high-dimensional Gaussian copula is used to jointly capture cross-sectional and (multivariate) serial dependence. The copula parameter matrix is given by the correlation matrix of a latent stationary and Markov vector autoregression (VAR). We show that the likelihood can be evaluated efficiently using the unique partial correlations, and estimate the copula using Bayesian methods. We examine the forecasting performance of the model for four U.S. macroeconomic variables between 1975:Q1 and 2011:Q2 using quarterly real-time data. We find that the point and density forecasts from the copula model are competitive with those from a Bayesian VAR. During the recent recession the forecast densities exhibit substantial asymmetry, avoiding some of the pitfalls of the symmetric forecast densities from the Bayesian VAR. We show that the asymmetries in the predictive distributions of GDP growth and inflation are similar to those found in the probabilistic forecasts from the Survey of Professional Forecasters. Last, we find that unlike the linear VAR model, our fitted Gaussian copula models exhibit nonlinear dependencies between some macroeconomic variables. This article has online supplementary material.     

Investigating impacts of complex sampling on latent growth curve modelling

We investigate the impacts of complex sampling on point and standard error estimates in latent growth curve modelling of survey data. Methodological issues are illustrated with empirical evidence from the analysis of longitudinal data on life satisfaction trajectories using data from the British Household Panel Survey, a national representative survey in Great Britain. A multi-process second-order latent growth curve model with conditional linear growth is used to study variation in the two perceived life satisfaction latent factors considered. The benefits of accounting for the complex survey design are considered, including obtaining unbiased both point and standard error estimates, and therefore correctly specified confidence intervals and statistical tests. We conclude that, even for the rather elaborated longitudinal data models that were considered, estimation procedures are affected by variance-inflating impacts of complex sampling.     

The Pinochet case: cosmopolitanism and intermestic human rights

This article explores the Pinochet case, widely heralded as a landmark, as a case of 'intermestic' human rights that raises difficult normative and empirical questions concerning cosmopolitan justice. The article is a contribution to the sociology of human rights from the perspective of methodological cosmopolitanism, developing conceptual tools and methods to study how cosmopolitanizing state institutions and cultural norms are inter-related. The argument is made that in order to understand issues of cosmopolitan justice, sociologists must give more consideration to political culture.