Expected sample moments of concomitants of selected order statistics

In this paper, the task of determining expected values of sample moments, where the sample members have been selected based on noisy information, is considered. This task is a recurring problem in the theory of evolution strategies. Exact expressions for expected values of sums of products of concomitants of selected order statistics are derived. Then, using Edgeworth and Cornish-Fisher approximations, explicit results that depend on coefficients that can be determined numerically are obtained. While the results are exact only for normal populations, it is shown experimentally that including skewness and kurtosis in the calculations can yield greatly improved results for other distributions.     

Going to Pieces: Paul Monette and the Fragments of the Tribe

Author of the highly acclaimed Borrowed Time: An AIDS Memoir (1988) and winner of the 1992 National Book Award for his autobiography Becoming a Man: Half a Life Story, Paul Monette died of complications from AIDS in Los Angeles on February 12, 1995. His most recent work, Last Watch of the Night: Essays Too Personal and Otherwise (1994), is his third volume in a trilogy of autobiographical writing on growing up gay, coming-out, and living with AIDS. A graduate of Phillips Academy and Yale University, Monette received a number of awards for his writing and his work as an outspoken voice in the battle against AIDS, including the National Book Award, three Lambda Literary awards, the PEN Center West Freedom to Write Award, and three honorary doctorate degrees, from Wesleyan University, the City University of New York, and the State University of New York at Oswego. A memorial service was held for Monette on Sunday, February 19, 1995, at the Directors Guild of America on Sunset Boulevard in Los Angeles. Paul Monette was 49.     

Moving in or Breaking Up? The Role of Distance in the Development of Romantic Relationships

Most romantic relationships start with a living apart together (LAT) phase during which the partners live in two separate households. Over time, a couple might decide to move in together, to separate, or to remain together while maintaining their nonresidential status. This study investigates the competing risks that partners in a LAT relationship will experience the transition to coresidence or to separation. We consider the amount of time LAT partners have to travel to see each other to be a key determinant of relationship development. For our statistical analyses, we use seven waves of the German Family Panel Pairfam (2008/2009–2014/2015) and analyze couples in the age group 20–40 years. We distinguish between short-distance relationships (the partners have to travel less than one hour) and long-distance relationships (the partners have to travel one hour or more). Estimating a competing risks model, we find that couples in long-distance relationships are more likely to separate than those living in close proximity. By contrast, the probability of experiencing a transition to coresidence is lower for LAT couples in long-distance than for those in short-distance relationships. Interaction analyses reveal that distance seems to be irrelevant for the relationship development of couples with two nonemployed (unemployed, in education or other inactive) partners.     

Explaining the demand for structured financial products: survey and field experiment evidence

In many countries structured investment products are popular among retail investors. We explain the demand for these products using unique field data where we let subjects freely design their “favorite” structured product. Results suggest that the supply with capital protected products (guarantee certificates) might indeed be demand-driven. This does not seem to be the case for other product categories where marketing and sales practices might play a more important role. In a survey among financial practitioners we find furthermore that a demand for capital protected products can be explained by loss aversion and saving motifs, e.g. for buying a house.     

Was there compression of disability for older Americans from 1992 to 2003?

Medical advances and the growth of the elderly population have focused interest on trends in the health of the elderly. Three theories have been advanced to describe these trends: compression of morbidity, expansion of morbidity, and dynamic equilibrium. We applied multistate life table methods to the Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey to estimate active and disabled life expectancy from 1992 to 2003, defining disability as having difficulty with instrumental activities of daily living or activities of daily living. We found increases in active life expectancy past age 65 and decreases in life expectancy with severe disability. These trends are consistent with elements of both the theory of compression of morbidity and the theory of dynamic equilibrium.     

Using age and spatial flow structures in the indirect estimation of migration streams

This article outlines a formal model-based approach for inferring interregional age-specific migration streams in settings where such data are incomplete, inadequate, or unavailable. The estimation approach relies heavily on log-linear models, using them to impose some of the regularities exhibited by past age and spatial structures or to combine and borrow information drawn from other sources. The approach is illustrated using data from the 1990 and 2000 U.S. and Mexico censuses.     

As low birth weight babies grow,can well-educated parents buffer this adverse factor? A research note

This research note combines two national Taiwanese data sets to investigate the relationships among low birth weight (LBW) babies, their parents' educational levels, and their future academic outcomes. We find that LBW is negatively correlated with the probability of such children attending college at age 18; however, when both parents are college or high school graduates, such negative effects may be partially offset. We also show that discrimination against daughters occurs, but only for daughters who were LBW babies. Moreover high parental education can buffer the LBW shock only among moderately LBW children (as compared with very LBW children) and full-term LBW children (as compared with preterm LBW children).