Bayesian model selection for join point regression with application to age-adjusted cancer rates

Summary.  The method of Bayesian model selection for join point regression models is developed. Given a set of K +1 join point models M ₀,  M ₁, …,  M _K with 0, 1, …,  K join points respec-tively, the posterior distributions of the parameters and competing models M _k are computed by Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations. The Bayes information criterion BIC is used to select the model M _k with the smallest value of BIC as the best model. Another approach based on the Bayes factor selects the model M _k with the largest posterior probability as the best model when the prior distribution of M _k is discrete uniform. Both methods are applied to analyse the observed US cancer incidence rates for some selected cancer sites. The graphs of the join point models fitted to the data are produced by using the methods proposed and compared with the method of Kim and co-workers that is based on a series of permutation tests. The analyses show that the Bayes factor is sensitive to the prior specification of the variance σ ², and that the model which is selected by BIC fits the data as well as the model that is selected by the permutation test and has the advantage of producing the posterior distribution for the join points. The Bayesian join point model and model selection method that are presented here will be integrated in the National Cancer Institute's join point software ( http://www.srab.cancer.gov/joinpoint/ ) and will be available to the public.     

The structure of a random relation with an application to a nomination network

Stochastic relations frequently occur in the social sciences; however, their statistical properties are not well-known. A random relation can be used to model noise or observational error. This paper characterizes the structure of a random relation by deriving the distribution of the structural vector from Q-analysis and by simulating random relations. We propose a measure of structure and apply these concepts to the nominations of esteemed peers by mathematicians.     

A statistical problem arising in ascertainment

In this paper, an alternative model is examined for the distribution arising out of ascertainment. The weighted beta-binomial is suggested for this purpose as it incorporates the variability in the parameter ø of the weighted binomial distribution. The latter distribution has been the model considered by Rao (1965, 1985) and Kocherlakota and Kocherlakota (1990). Techniques for separate families introduced in Kocherlakota and Kocherlakota (1986) are applied to demonstrate that the weighted beta-binomial model is more appropriate in this situation.     

BLACK-WHITE DIFFERENCES IN MOTHER-TO-DAUGHTER TRANSMISSION OF SEX-ROLE ATTITUDES

We construct a model of sex-role transmission from mothers to daughters using three survey years from the National Longitudinal Surveys of Labor Market Experiences of Mature Women and Young Women. We develop a series of hypotheses specifying race differences on how mothers' sex-role attitudes and work behavior during daughters' adolescence influence daughter's adult work and sex-role attitudes. The major difference between blacks and whites lies not in the relationships between attitudes and behavior within cohort, but rather in the manner in which these are transmitted across generations.     

‘Are You Top or Bottom?’: Social Science Answers for Everyday Questions about Sadomasochism

Sadomasochism remains a topic of curiosity for academics and non‐academics alike. There has been a recent proliferation of scholarship on the topic to explain and justify the behaviors of practitioners of sadomasochism, who remain a diverse yet understudied population. This article offers answers for questions typically asked about sadomasochism. The article includes a brief historical sexological background, explores the topic of sadomasochism from a social science perspective, and deals with linkages between sadomasochism and the sex industry, which I argue deserves more attention by researchers.     

Reporting "The Polls" in 2004

Media reports of polls indicate how well public opinion pollshave been integrated into campaign coverage. This article examineshow polls were used in 2004. Although there were relativelylimited methodological changes in how polls were conducted in2004, there were changes in how the polls were treated in themedia. Americans in 2004 were subjected to intense debates aboutpolls and to as much reporting about "the polls" as there wasof the polls themselves. The discussion of "the polls" in 2004included claims of electability during the Democratic nominatingprocess, increased reporting about methodological issues, andheightened political criticisms of "the polls." The articleconcludes with a discussion of the current state and the futureof news polling.