Gatekeeper's response: A rejoinder

Gender, marital status, age, and race were considered in relation to the amount and assessment of social ties among 1,124 unmarried men and women aged 40 and over. When there were significant effects of marital status, widowed people tended to be advantaged in amount and supportiveness of their informal ties, although the influence of marital status was affected by age and race. Contrary to some literature, gender differences in social relationships favoring women were not consistently observed. The oldest never married may have the greatest potential needs for affective and instrumental support.     

The fertility effect of catastrophe: U.S. hurricane births

Anecdotal evidence has suggested increased fertility rates resulting from catastrophic events in an area. In this paper, we measure this fertility effect using storm advisory data and fertility data for the Atlantic and Gulf-coast counties of the USA. We find that low-severity storm advisories are associated with a positive and significant fertility effect and that high-severity advisories have a significant negative fertility effect. As the type of advisory goes from least severe to most severe, the fertility effect of the specific advisory type decreases monotonically from positive to negative. We also find some other interesting demographic effects.     

Testing for serial correlation in the presence of dynamic heteroscedasticity

Standard serial correlation tests are derived assuming that the disturbances are homoscedastic, but this study shows that asympotic critical values are not accurate when this assumption is violated. Asymptotic critical values for the ARCH(2)-corrected LM, BP and BL tests are valid only when the underlying ARCH process is strictly stationary, whereas Wooldridge's robust LM test has good properties overall. These tests exhibit similar bahaviour even when the underlying process is GARCH (1,1). When the regressors include lagged dependent variables, the rejection frequencies under both the null and alternative hypotheses depend on the coefficientsof the lagged dependent variables and the other model parameters. They appear to be robust across various disturbance distributions under the null hypothesis.     

Short notices

Howard M. Gitelman, Workingmen of Waltham: Mobility in American Urban Industrial Development, 1850–1890 (1975), xvi+192 (Johns Hopkins University Press: Baltimore and London, £5.50).

Michael J. Cullen, The Statistical Movement in Early Victorian Britain. The Foundations of Empirical Social Research (1975), xii+205 (Harvester Press, Hassocks, £7.50).

Raymond Wolters, The New negro on Campus: Black College Rebellions of the 1920s (1975), viii+370 (Princeton University Press, £7.90).

Marie B. Rowlands, Masters and Men in the West Midland Metalware Trades before the Industrial Revolution (1975) x+198 (Manchester University Press, Manchester, £8.00).

Dwight L. Smith (ed.), Afro‐American History: A Bibliography (1974), xvi+856 (ABC Clio Inc., Santa Barbara and Oxford, £22.50).

Hugh Cunningham, The Volunteer Force: a Social and Political History 1859–1908 (1975) 168 (Croom Helm, £6.50).

Leslie Clarkson, Death, Disease and Famine in Pre‐Industrial England (Dublin, 1975), iii+188 (Gill and Macmillan, £8.75).

Arnold J. Bauer, Chilean Rural Society front the Spanish Conquest to 1930 (1975), xviii+265 (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, £7.90).

R. Kieckhefer, European Witch Trials: Their Foundation in Popular and Learned Culture, 1300–1500 (1976), x+181 (Routledge and Kegan Paul, £5.25).

David Elliston Allen, The Naturalist in Britain: a Social History (1976), xii+292 (Allen Lane, £9.00).

Paul Smith (ed.), The Historian and Film (1976), viii+208 (Cambridge University Press, £4.95).

Katherine S. Naughton, The Geentry of Bedfordshire in the 13th and 14th ceaturies (1976), 90 (Leicester University Press, Leicester, Local History Occ. Papers. 3rd series, No. 2. £3.75).

Thomas J. Archdeacon, New York City, 1664–1710: Conquest and Change (1976), 197 (Cornell University Press, Ithaca and London, £6.35).     

Shylock is not Heartless: The Function of Separation in Men's Emotional Development

‘Shylock is not Heartless’ uses poetry, film and the popular press to illustrate men's adherence to the traditional male tasks of protector and provider. Some men shift from protector and provider to the negative equivalent, controller and possessor, at the crisis point of separation. For others, separation provides the impetus for a journey inward toward self. The metaphor of the Iceberg and the Ocean has been found useful in helping some men observe the differences between them and their female partners.     

Family values and labor force participation: Ireland in international perspective

The large-scale entry of married women into the workforce has been a striking feature of the post-war period, particularly in the United States, Britain, and other Anglo-Celtic nations. Theory implies that this should happen in all developed nations. But there is a counter-example: Ireland. To discover whether this is truly an exception, we analyze data from large, representative samples of Ireland, the USA, Britain, and Australia (pooled n=8,240). We find that Irish are not especially traditional; they are especially devout, but the difference persists when this is controlled. Strikingly, the behavior of Irish immigrants is indistinguishable from other Anglo-Celts in their new societies. Thus it seems that Irish exceptionalism arises from an institutional setting uniquely hostile to women’s employment. She is currently coordinating a multi-national research project assessing the extent of ethnic discrimination in different societies. She and Jonathan Kelley are continuing their long-run international, comparative project on economic culture with special reference to inequality. He and M.D.R. Evans conduct their omnibus International Social Science Surveys, which include as their International Survey of Economic Attitudes, their Bioethics surveys, the Australian National Social Science Survey, and others. They are completing a book on time use and subjective well-being in later life. She researches intergenerational social mobility and occupational careers with special reference to gender, and also studies socio-political attitudes and their sources, particularly using International Social Survey Program data.     

Organisational buying behaviour in changing times

In a recent paper, Johnston and Lewin (1996) analyse the stream of research on organisational buyer behaviour published over the past 25 to 30 years isolating eight propositions which they encapsulate in their ‘Risk Continuum'. Our paper, reports a comparison between Johnston and Lewin's analysis of the extant literature and current buying practices as revealed by interviews with senior UK buyers. We found that business practice has changed in the intervening years. New, process-driven management styles are changing the way in which UK buyers and suppliers interact, yet work reflecting this change (by, for instance, the European based IMP Group) is under-represented in textbooks and teaching. We question the continuing predominance of the established risk management view of organisational buyer behaviour based upon research conducted in the USA 30 years ago.     

Risk Perception in the U.K. Oil and Gas Production Industry: Are Expert Loss‐Prevention Managers' Perceptions Different From Those of Members of the Public?

This article investigates potential differences in risk perception between experts (loss-prevention managers in the U.K. oil and gas production industry) and nonexperts (managers and students). Extant research on expert versus nonexpert perceptions of risk is reviewed, followed by the present study concerning risk perceptions of seven pen-picture scenarios involving the occurrence of hazardous events in the U.K. oil and gas production industry. In contrast to many of the earlier studies of expert versus nonexpert perceptions of risk, the present analysis concludes that experts did not judge the overall riskiness of the portrayed hazardous events as less risky than the nonexperts. Nevertheless, the experts believe more strongly than our nonexperts that the risks portrayed in the scenarios pose little threat to future generations, are more precisely known, and are relatively controllable. Use of multiple regression analysis to help uncover the basis of overall riskiness assessments for expert and lay respondents was inconclusive, however. Finally, little evidence was found that nonexperts were any more heterogeneous in their risk perceptions than experts. It may be that the nature of the risks assessed in the present study may account for the general lack of clear expert versus nonexpert differences in overall perceptions of the riskiness of hazardous events in the North Sea. Earlier findings of strong expert versus nonexpert differences in risk perception assessed hazards of major public concern. It is inferred that using such extreme hazards may have resulted in an exaggerated view of differences in expert versus public (nonexpert) perception of risk.     

Taking Tilly south: durable inequalities, democratic contestation, and citizenship in the Southern Metropolis

Drawing on Charles Tilly’s work on inequality, democracy and cities, we explore the local level dynamics of democratization across urban settings in India, South Africa, and Brazil. In all three cases, democratic institutions are consolidated, but there is tremendous variation in the quality of the democratic relationship between cities and their citizens. We follow Tilly’s focus on citizenship as the key element in democratization and argue that explaining variance across our three cases calls for analyzing patterns of inequality through the kind of relational lens used by Tilly and recognizing that patterns of contestation are shaped by shifting political relationships between the nation and the city. We conclude that Tilly’s theoretical frame is nicely sustained by the comparative analysis of cases very different from those that stimulated his original formulations.