An Appeal to Aid Specialists

The appeal I am making is (roughly speaking) for aid specialists to do more to help those of us who are not aid specialists to arrive at judgments about the effects of the work of (voluntary) aid agencies that we have at least some reason to think accurate. I argue that the fact that it is so difficult for us to arrive at such judgments at present has certain negative consequences, and that this gives those who are in a position to make it easier for us to arrive at such judgments strong reasons to do so. And I argue that (certain) aid specialists are in such a position. Hence my appeal to them to do so.     

Practical Methods for Bounding Type I Error Rate with an Internal Pilot Design

New analytic forms for distributions at the heart of internal pilot theory solve many problems inherent to current techniques for linear models with Gaussian errors. Internal pilot designs use a fraction of the data to re-estimate the error variance and modify the final sample size. Too small or too large a sample size caused by an incorrect planning variance can be avoided. However, the usual hypothesis test may need adjustment to control the Type I error rate. A bounding test achieves control of Type I error rate while providing most of the advantages of the unadjusted test. Unfortunately, the presence of both a doubly truncated and an untruncated chi-square random variable complicates the theory and computations. An expression for the density of the sum of the two chi-squares gives a simple form for the test statistic density. Examples illustrate that the new results make the bounding test practical by providing very stable, convergent, and much more accurate computations. Furthermore, the new computational methods are effectively never slower and usually much faster. All results apply to any univariate linear model with fixed predictors and Gaussian errors, with the t-test a special case.     

An alternative to unit root tests: Bridge estimators differentiate between nonstationary versus stationary models and select optimal lag

This paper introduces a novel way of differentiating a unit root from stationary alternatives using so-called “Bridge” estimators; this estimation procedure can potentially generate exact zero estimates of parameters. We exploit this property and treat this as a model selection problem. We show that Bridge estimators can select the correct model with probability tending to 1. They estimate “zero” parameter on the lagged dependent variable as zero (nonstationarity), if this is nonzero (stationary), estimate the coefficient with standard normal limit. In this sense, we extend the statistics literature as well, since that literature only deals with model selection among only stationary variables.     

Measuring strategic decision making efficiency in different country contexts: A comparison of British and Turkish firms

This paper compares the relative efficiency of the strategic decision making (SDM) processes of British and Turkish firms. The technique of data envelopment analysis (DEA) is used to measure the relative efficiency of these firms. The evidence obtained by the DEA analysis reveals that the Turkish firms tend to be superior to the British firms in terms of their SDM efficiency. There is a significant difference in scale returns with respect to the country of origin of the firms. The analysis of the improvement potential of inputs indicates that Turkish firms place more emphasis on managing environmental turbulence to enhance their SDM efficiency, while British firms tend to overly focus on the design of an appropriate organizational structure. However, no significant difference was noted between the two groups of firms with regard to the level of resources and effort exerted on formal strategic planning practices. The analysis of output deficits reveals that there is a significant difference between British and Turkish firms in the sources of inefficiency.     

‘A murderous ‘underclass’? the press reporting of sexually motivated murder

The 'underclass' is widely held by commentators of the Right to be responsible for a host of social problems, including violent crime. This paper shows how in the reporting of sexually motivated murder in a sample of nine British newspapers for one complete year (1992), the image constructed is one where unemployed and other marginalised men are portrayed as the main perpetrators of sexual violence. This, the authors argue, hampers our understanding of sexual violence, for it suggests that it is only men of a 'low' socio-economic background who are a potential threat to women and children. It is also suggested that the 'symbolic environment' of the press reporting of sexual murder provides a context in which a more authoritarian benefit regime and greater control of poor communities can be spuriously justified.