A Deliberative Method for Ranking Risks (I): Overview and Test Bed Development

Risk ranking offers a potentially powerful means for gathering public input to help set risk-management priorities. In most rankings conducted to date, the categories and attributes used to describe the risks have varied widely, the materials and procedures have not been designed to facilitate comparisons among risks on all important attributes, and the validity and reproducibility of the resulting rankings have not been assessed. To address these needs, a risk-ranking method was developed in which risk experts define and categorize the risks to be ranked, identify the relevant risk attributes, and characterize the risks in a set of standardized risk summary sheets, which are then used by lay or other groups in structured ranking exercises. To evaluate this method, a test bed involving 22 health and safety risks in a fictitious middle school was created. This article provides an overview of the risk-ranking method and describes the challenges faced in designing the middle school test bed. A companion article in this issue reports on the validity of the ranking procedures and the level of agreement among risk managers regarding ranking of risks and attributes.     

Extending the Box–Cox transformation to the linear mixed model

Summary.  For a univariate linear model, the Box–Cox method helps to choose a response transformation to ensure the validity of a Gaussian distribution and related assumptions. The desire to extend the method to a linear mixed model raises many vexing questions. Most importantly, how do the distributions of the two sources of randomness (pure error and random effects) interact in determining the validity of assumptions? For an otherwise valid model, we prove that the success of a transformation may be judged solely in terms of how closely the total error follows a Gaussian distribution. Hence the approach avoids the complexity of separately evaluating pure errors and random effects. The extension of the transformation to the mixed model requires an exploration of its potential effect on estimation and inference of the model parameters. Analysis of longitudinal pulmonary function data and Monte Carlo simulations illustrate the methodology discussed.     

Ecological Risk Ranking: Development and Evaluation of a Method for Improving Public Participation in Environmental Decision Making

This article reports an extension of the Carnegie Mellon risk-ranking method to incorporate ecological risks and their attributes. On the basis of earlier risk-perception studies, we identified a set of 20 relevant attributes for describing health, safety, and environmental hazards in standardized risk summary sheets. In a series of three ranking sessions, 23 laypeople ranked 10 such hazards in a fictional Midwestern U.S. county using both holistic and multiattribute ranking procedures. Results were consistent with those from previous studies involving only health and safety hazards, providing additional evidence for the validity of the method and the replicability of the resulting rankings. Holistic and multiattribute risk rankings were reasonably consistent both for individuals and for groups. Participants reported that they were satisfied with the procedures and results, and indicated their support for using the method to advise real-world risk-management decisions. Agreement among participants increased over the course of the exercise, perhaps because the materials and deliberations helped participants to correct their misconceptions and clarify their values. Overall, health and safety attributes were judged more important than environmental attributes. However, the overlap between the importance rankings of these two sets of attributes suggests that some information about environmental impacts is important to participants' judgments in comparative risk-assessment tasks.     

The genetic connections of Alzheimer's disease: An emerging source of caregiver stress

The purpose of this study was to expand and refine current theoretical conceptualization of dementia caregiving by identifying and analyzing new potential sources of stress. A qualitative analysis of unsolicited letters (N=51) written by family caregivers of persons diagnosed with Alzheimer's disease (AD) was conducted. Content analysis of the data confirmed that providing care for persons diagnosed with AD could impart emotional, physiological, and financial stress on caregivers. The data also revealed an emerging source of stress for family caregivers—fears and uncertainties regarding possible genetic connections between family caregivers and relatives suffering from AD. These results strongly suggest that concerns with genetic connections should be included in theoretical models of stress and dementia caregiving. Implications include the need for increased dissemination of information regarding genetic connections and AD, as well as increased support for family members if and when genetic connections are discovered.     

Work patterns and marital status change

The impact of marital status changes on the lives of adults and children has increased importance as marriage, divorce, and remarriage have become more frequent patterns of family composition change. These events can often be predicted by the family members involved so that they may be accompanied by changes in labor market activity prior to the events themselves. The study reported here uses panel data to examine the labor market activity changes that precede marital status changes. Women who become divorced increase hours of work in the year or two before the divorce occurs, and women who become remarried decrease hours of work in the year of the remarriage and thereafter. For men there seems to be little change in labor supply during these years. However, hours of housework for men do seem to change.This research has been supported by the United States Department of Agriculture through the New York Agricultural Experiment Station under Southern Regional Project S-206. The data utilized in this work were made available in part by the Inter-University Consortium for Political and Social Research. The data were originally collected by James N. Morgan, et al. The contents of this article do not necessarily reflect the view of the Inter-University Consortium or the institutions with which the researchers are affiliated. We wish to especially thank Robert Avery for his helpful comments throughout this research and Veronica Abel for her able research assistance.Jennifer L. Gerner is Associate Professor, Department of Consumer Economics and Housing, 137 Martha Van Rensselaer Hall, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14853. Her research interests include the economics of the family and family organization. She received her Ph.D. from the University of Wisconsin. Catherine Phillips Montalto is a Ph.D. candidate in the Department of Consumer Economics and Housing, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14853. Her research interests include the economic behavior of households. W. Keith Bryant is Professor and Chair of the Department of Consumer Economics and Housing, 117D Martha Van Rensselaer, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14853. He received his Ph.D. from Michigan State University.     

The Best Years of Their Lives: A Portrait of a Residential Home for People With AIDS

The article results from 18 months of ethnographic fieldwork conducted at the “Tahitian Islander,” an apartment building in Florida for people with AIDs. This essay offers stories of three longtime residents as a way of describing and interpreting discourse that creates and maintains a sense of self and place. By using a narrative form that is built around dialogue, the author offers examples of how people with AIDS (PWAs) talk about themselves and talk to each other. Through the particulars of daily practice and conversation, this essay shows us that PWAs are actively and continually engaged in the production of identity and community.     

A Bayesian approach to Markov modelling in cost-effectiveness analyses: application to taxane use in advanced breast cancer

Summary. The paper demonstrates how cost-effectiveness decision analysis may be implemented from a Bayesian perspective, using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation methods for both the synthesis of relevant evidence input into the model and the evaluation of the model itself. The desirable aspects of a Bayesian approach for this type of analysis include the incorporation of full parameter uncertainty, the ability to perform all the analysis, including each meta-analysis, in a single coherent model and the incorporation of expert opinion either directly or regarding the relative credibility of different data sources. The method is described, and its ease of implementation demonstrated, through a practical example to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of using taxanes for the second-line treatment of advanced breast cancer compared with conventional treatment. For completeness, the results from the Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation model are compared and contrasted with those from a classical Monte Carlo simulation model.     

Not in my backyard: Las Vegas residents protest casinos

Casino gambling is becoming increasingly attractive to jurisdictions facing severe fiscal crises. Evidence suggests that casinos bring jobs and increased government revenues. However, attitudes and concerns of local residents regarding the location of casinos in their community should be considered in decisions regarding casino legalization. This paper analyzes the importance of factors associated with the selection of homes by persons living in the Las Vegas metropolitan area. A random survey of 967 recent home purchasers was analyzed. Proximity to a casino is of some importance to home purchasers. As expected, purchasers of more expensive homes and those with children in the household were more concerned about casino locations than others. But casinos were not the only concern of purchasers. Crime, industrial plants, and potential nuclear waste route locations were of greater concern than casino proximity. On the other hand, casino locations were of greater concern than shopping centers and fast food restaurant locations.This research project was supported in part by funds from Clark County through U.S. Department of Energy project grant # DE-FG08-89NV10819, and the College of Business and Economics (U.N.L.V.) Faculty Research Fund of the First Interstate Bank of Nevada.