Nonparametric Estimation of the Probability of Detection of Flaws in an Industrial Component,from Destructive and Nondestructive Testing Data,Using Approximate Bayesian Computation

We consider the problem of estimating the probability of detection (POD) of flaws in an industrial steel component. Modeled as an increasing function of the flaw height, the POD characterizes the detection process; it is also involved in the estimation of the flaw size distribution, a key input parameter of physical models describing the behavior of the steel component when submitted to extreme thermodynamic loads. Such models are used to assess the resistance of highly reliable systems whose failures are seldom observed in practice. We develop a Bayesian method to estimate the flaw size distribution and the POD function, using flaw height measures from periodic in‐service inspections conducted with an ultrasonic detection device, together with measures from destructive lab experiments. Our approach, based on approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) techniques, is applied to a real data set and compared to maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) and a more classical approach based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques. In particular, we show that the parametric model describing the POD as the cumulative distribution function (cdf) of a log‐normal distribution, though often used in this context, can be invalidated by the data at hand. We propose an alternative nonparametric model, which assumes no predefined shape, and extend the ABC framework to this setting. Experimental results demonstrate the ability of this method to provide a flexible estimation of the POD function and describe its uncertainty accurately.     

Marital Conflict in the Context of Parental Depressive Symptoms: Implications for the Development of Children's Adjustment Problems

Relations among parental depressive symptoms, overt and covert marital conflict, and child internalizing and externalizing symptoms were examined in a community sample of 235 couples and their children. Families were assessed once yearly for three years, starting when children were in kindergarten. Parents completed measures of depressive symptoms and children's internalizing and externalizing symptoms. Behavioral observations of marital conflict behaviors (insult, threat, pursuit, and defensiveness) and self report of covert negativity (feeling worry, sorry, worthless, and helpless) were assessed based on problem-solving interactions. Results indicated that fathers' greater covert negativity and mothers' overt destructive conflict behaviors served as intervening variables in the link between fathers' depressive symptoms and child internalizing symptoms, with modest support for the pathway through fathers' covert negativity found even after controlling for earlier levels of constructs. These findings support the role of marital conflict in the impact of fathers' depressive symptoms on child internalizing symptoms.     

Nativity Status and Depressive Symptoms among Hispanic Young Adults: The Role of Stress Exposure

OBJECTIVE: This article documents nativity differentials in depressive symptoms among Hispanics during their initial years of adulthood and explores how ethnicity, socio-demographic characteristics, and exposure to stressful life events and changes in social roles help to explain those differentials. METHODS: Data is drawn from a large-scale two-wave community study of stress, psychiatric well-being, and substance use disorders among young adults. Our analytic sample includes 553 Hispanic respondents and we employ multivariate regression techniques. RESULTS: Regardless of age at immigration, foreign-born women experience greater declines in depressive symptoms than native-born women during early adulthood. This advantage is explained by differences in perceptions of discrimination, family-based stress, and social role changes. The association between nativity and depressive symptoms is not conditioned by ethnicity, but ethnicity does condition the association between stressful events and depressive symptoms. CONCLUSIONS: The findings suggest that mental health treatment and prevention efforts should focus more heavily on stress exposure.     

The Other‐Race Effect in a Longitudinal Sample of 3‐, 6‐ and 9‐Month‐Old Infants: Evidence of a Training Effect

We investigated the development of the other‐race effect “ORE” in a longitudinal sample of 3‐, 6‐, and 9‐month‐old Caucasian infants. Previous research using cross‐sectional samples has shown an unstable ORE at 3 months, an increase at 6 months and full development at 9 months. In Experiment 1, we tested whether 9‐month‐olds showed the ORE with Caucasian and African faces. As expected, the 9‐month‐olds discriminated faces within their own ethnicity (Caucasian) but not within the unfamiliar ethnicity (African). In months. In Experiment 2, we longitudinally tested infants at 3, 6, and 9 months by presenting either the Caucasian or the African faces used in Experiment 1. In contrast to previous cross‐sectional studies and Experiment 1, we found that infants discriminated between all stimuli. Hence, we did not find the ORE in this longitudinal study even at 9 months. We assume that the infants in our longitudinal study showed no ORE because of previous repetitive exposure to African faces at 3 and 6 months. We argue that only a few presentations of faces from other ethnic categories sufficiently slow the development of the ORE.     

将休闲游客纳入海洋保护区规划——以加拿大不列颠哥伦比亚地区的游艇研究为例

海洋保护区(MPAs)与海洋功能区划的社会目标和生态目标若要实现,必须得到利益相关方的理解。本文以游憩机会序列(ROS)和游憩冲突模型为基础,考察了加拿大不列颠哥伦比亚海洋保护区里面的游艇者。笔者在夏季对到访该地区的游艇者(n=543)进行了问卷调查。调查结果显示,游艇者对环境的偏好各异,证明应该以游憩机会序列为基础进行海洋保护区规划与海洋功能区划。站在游艇者这一群体的角度,他们最看重的是自然环境,帆船驾驶者比汽艇驾驶者更倾向于自然和安静的环境,而汽艇驾驶者则比帆船驾驶者更倾向于以建成设施和采掘活动为特征的环境。有些海洋活动则成为游艇者冲突的根源,包括私人船只、商业赏鲸船只以及贝类水产养殖。本文通过分析指出,有些冲突可以通过海洋功能区划解决,而另外一些最好是通过教育和沟通的方式。文末还针对海洋保护区的管理及未来的研究方向提出了建议。     

Parental Depressive Symptoms, Children's Representations of Family Relationships, and Child Adjustment

This study extends the investigation of family process models of parental dysphoria and child adjustment, by examining depressive symptoms in both fathers and mothers, and by examining children's representations of family relationships as possible explanatory mechanisms. Participants were 232 children (Time 1 mean age: 5.99; 105 boys, 127 girls) and their cohabiting parents, who participated for three consecutive years. Children's internal representations of multiple family relationships were assessed by means of a story stem completion task. Structural equation modeling indicated that children's inter‐parental and attachment representations are part of the process whereby parental depressive symptoms influence child externalizing symptoms. Maternal depressive symptoms also predicted changes in children's representations of marital and attachment relationships over time. The implications for family process models of relations between parental depressive symptoms in community samples and child development are discussed.     

驾御的力量

企业必须认识到,创造价值的是事件与体验,而非产品与服务当1996年通用汽车公司首次推出Onstar系统时,当时的这项服务与现在差别很大。例如,以前的Onstar系统只安装到经销商一级,买家要获取自己的移动电话账户,才能运行该项服务。不过,当经销商告诉通用汽车这种方法非常麻烦,导致销售额下降时,通用汽车便与GTE公     

Conceptions of Parenting in Different Cultural Communities: The Case of West African Nso and Northern German Women

The present study compares conceptions about parenting in two cultural communities that may be expected to hold different views on parent–child relationships. Sociodemographically diverse samples of 46 Northern German and 39 West African Nso women evaluated parenting behavior observed in 10 Nso and 10 German videotaped mother–infant interaction sequences. The individual evaluations were assessed in group contexts. The statements were analyzed with respect to their reference to parenting systems and interaction mechanisms as conceptualized in the component model of parenting. As expected, the Nso respondents addressed primary care, body contact and body stimulation more often than the German respondents who focused more on face‐to‐face communication and exclusive attention. Contrary to our expectations, distress regulation was addressed more often by the German respondents. Quantitative analyses are combined with the qualitative elaboration of the respondents’ evaluative comments. The identified ideas about parenting are discussed as reflecting the conscious nature of parenting as a shared cultural activity and related to cultural goals.     

激励员工，不断超越

销售人员没有在五点钟扬长而去,而是多打个电话确保买卖万无一失,帮助公司实现本季度销售目标。设备操作员在换班后留下来,以保证接班工人能够迅速上手。采购经理放弃了与朋友共进午餐的打算,以帮助新进员工及时完成项目。这些模范企业的共同特点是什么?MeasureofaLeader;AnActionableFormulaforLegendaryLeadership的作者奥布里丹尼斯(AubreyDaniels)和詹姆斯·丹尼斯(JamesDaniels)认为,是他们的经理具备才能,能够令员工真心投入,并激励员工开展超越本位职责的工作。