Preventive planning for disasters

The authors have analysed the available data on disaster occurence and conclude that disasters are on the increase, especially in underdeveloped countries. They argue that a new approach to disaster is needed, one which emphasizes the continuing man-environment relationship. Within this approach, planning to prevent disaster should concentrate on long-term precautionary planning integrated into development planning utilizing, as far as possible, local awareness of the disaster problem. This long-term approach to disaster planning is a more effective way of offsetting disaster than a heavy emphasis on each individual disaster event and the relief measures which accompany it.     

Much ado about nothing: A comparison of missing data methods and software to fit incomplete data regression models

Missing data are a recurring problem that can cause bias or lead to inefficient analyses. Development of statistical methods to address missingness have been actively pursued in recent years, including imputation, likelihood and weighting approaches. Each approach is more complicated when there are many patterns of missing values, or when both categorical and continuous random variables are involved. Implementations of routines to incorporate observations with incomplete variables in regression models are now widely available. We review these routines in the context of a motivating example from a large health services research dataset. While there are still limitations to the current implementations, and additional efforts are required of the analyst, it is feasible to incorporate partially observed values, and these methods should be utilized in practice.     

Environmental Surveillance at Los Alamos: An Independent Reassessment of Historical Data

Since 1971, a series of annual Environmental Surveillance ... reports have served as the official public record of Los Alamos National Laboratory's (LANL) environmental performance. In northern New Mexico, where past LANL emissions are a public health concern, there is public skepticism over the accuracy of information contained in these reports. To test the hypothesis that LANL Environmental Surveillance ... reports systematically understate past emissions, we compared the data on releases in LANL's own internal Occurrence Reports Collection (ORC) to the data reported to the public in the Environmental Surveillance ... reports. A data set of 89 environmental occurrences recorded in the ORC in the time period from 1971 through 1980 was assembled. We did not find a systematic pattern of quantitative underreporting of source terms. However, 17 of the 89 (19%) environmental occurrences recorded in the ORC were not reported to the public in the Environmental Surveillance ... reports. The observed discrepancies are discussed in terms of their relevance to public health concerns. Methodological caveats dictate restraint in applying these findings beyond the scope of the relative comparison performed here. Possible social origins for the rejected hypothesis are discussed. Areas for further consideration by the Centers for Disease Control's dose reconstruction study of LANL are identified.     

The Use of Multizone Models to Estimate an Airborne Chemical Contaminant Generation and Decay Profile: Occupational Exposures of Hairdressers to Vinyl Chloride in Hairspray During the 1960s and 1970s

Vinyl chloride (VC) was used as a propellant in a limited percentage of aerosol hairspray products in the United States from approximately 1967 to 1973. The question has arisen whether occupational exposures of hairdressers to VC-containing hairsprays in hair salons were sufficient to increase the risk for developing hepatic angiosarcoma (HAS). Transient two-zone and steady-state three-zone models were used to estimate the historical airborne concentration of VC for individual hairdressers using hairspray as well as estimated contributions from other hairdressers in the same salon. Concentrations of VC were modeled for small, medium, and large salons, as well as a representative home salon. Model inputs were determined using published literature, and variability in these inputs was also considered using Monte Carlo techniques. The 95th percentile for the daily time-weighted average exposure for small, medium, and large salons, assuming a market-share fraction of VC-containing hairspray use from the Monte Carlo analysis, was about 0.3 ppm, and for the home salon scenario was 0.1 ppm. The 95th percentile value for the cumulative lifetime exposure of the hairdressers was 2.8 ppm-years for the home salon scenario and 2.0 ppm-years for the small, medium, and large salon scenarios. If using the assumption that all hairsprays used in a salon contained VC, the 95th percentile of the theoretical lifetime cumulative dose was estimated to be 52–79 ppm-years. Estimated lifetime doses were all below the threshold dose for HAS of about 300 to 500 ppm-years reported in the published epidemiology literature.     

差序式领导与员工亲组织非伦理行为：圈内人和圈外人视角

 亲组织非伦理行为是近年来国内外组织管理学界日益关注的重要问题。已有研究表明，领导对员工亲组织非伦理行为的形成有重要影响。但相关研究成果多来自西方学界，基于中国文化情景的研究成果还十分有限，而聚焦于极具华人社会文化特色和内涵的本土领导对员工亲组织非伦理行为的影响研究更是匮乏，有待进一步拓展。        基于社会交换理论、社会认同理论和社会认知理论，从圈内人和圈外人视角出发，探讨中国组织文化情景下差序式领导对员工亲组织非伦理行为的影响以及领导组织代表性和员工集体主义倾向的调节作用。通过分阶段调研的方式，收集14家长三角地区本土企业457套调研数据，采用验证性因子分析、层次回归分析和Bootstrap法进行实证检验。        研究结果表明，差序式领导对圈内人和圈外人亲组织非伦理行为存在正向影响，但影响程度不存在显著差异；领导组织代表性正向调节差序式领导对圈内人和圈外人亲组织非伦理行为的影响，相较于圈内人，高领导组织代表性对差序式领导与圈外人亲组织非伦理行为之间关系的调节作用更强；员工集体主义倾向正向调节差序式领导对圈内人和圈外人亲组织非伦理行为的影响，但调节程度不存在显著差异。        实证检验中国组织文化情景下差序式领导对员工亲组织非伦理行为的影响机制，丰富了领导对员工亲组织非伦理行为的影响研究，是对本土组织管理研究的有益补充；从圈内人和圈外人两条路径分析员工亲组织非伦理行为的形成机制，为深入理解圈内人和圈外人的认知过程及差异提供了经验证据，并对已有研究视角进行有益整合；提出并验证了领导组织代表性和员工集体主义倾向的调节作用，补充了员工亲组织非伦理行为产生的边界条件。     

Youth mobilisations and political generations: young activists in political change movements during and since the twentieth century

This paper uses political generations theory to examine the main youth mobilisations during and since the twentieth century: pre-1939 fascist and communist movements; the student movements of the 1960s and 70s; movements that challenged colonial and neo-colonial rulers in less developed countries and young people's involvement in the revolutions that saw the end of communism in East-Central and South-East Europe in 1989. Conclusions from this review of the past are used in considering the likely significance of subsequent outbursts of political activism among young people: the ‘colour revolutions’ and other instances of youth mobilisation in former Soviet republics and other ex-communist countries; the Arab Spring and the series of movements that have challenged neo-liberalism – Anti-Globalisation, the Indignados and the Occupy movements. The paper notes that youth mobilisations that have led to the formation of new political generations that have changed their countries' politics then transformed the countries have typically extended over several decades, that initially youthful leaders have sometimes been middle-aged or older before achieving political power and that many of their actions on achieving power have been at variance with their youthful ideals. In conclusion, it is argued that it is still too early to tell whether any of the recent youth mobilisations signal the formation of new political generations.     

论大平正芳政权时期的对外战略——日本外交理想的原型

亚洲外交与日美同盟之间的矛盾是困扰战后日本外交的核心难题.这种困境既源于日本战败与朝鲜战争后中美对立的亚太国际政治格局,也归结于日本的战略选择.大平内阁处于世界政治从紧张缓和向新冷战过渡的时期.大平正芳从前任福田纠夫推行的“全方位外交”后退,转向强调与自由主义阵营诸国的协调关系,特别是日美协调.同时,他还主张在日美关系的框架内展开对中国以及环太平洋连带构想外交.其对外战略解决了亚洲外交与对美外交的困境,影响着1980年代以后日本对外政策的展开,是日本外交理想的原型.