Beta-Bernstein Smoothing for Regression Curves with Compact Support

ABSTRACT. The problem of boundary bias is associated with kernel estimation for regression curves with compact support. This paper proposes a simple and uni(r)ed approach for remedying boundary bias in non-parametric regression, without dividing the compact support into interior and boundary areas and without applying explicitly different smoothing treatments separately. The approach uses the beta family of density functions as kernels. The shapes of the kernels vary according to the position where the curve estimate is made. Theyare symmetric at the middle of the support interval, and become more and more asymmetric nearer the boundary points. The kernels never put any weight outside the data support interval, and thus avoid boundary bias. The method is a generalization of classical Bernstein polynomials, one of the earliest methods of statistical smoothing. The proposed estimator has optimal mean integrated squared error at an order of magnitude n ^−4/5, equivalent to that of standard kernel estimators when the curve has an unbounded support.     

Forecasting on British election night 1997

An account is given of methods used to predict the outcome of the 1997 general election from early declared results, for use by the British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) in its election night television and radio coverage. Particular features of the 1997 election include extensive changes to constituency boundaries, simultaneous local elections in many districts and strong tactical voting. A new technique is developed, designed to eliminate systematic sources of bias such as differential refusal, for incorporating prior information from the BBC's exit poll. The sequence of forecasts generated on election night is displayed, with commentary.     

Marriage and Child Well-Being: Research and Policy Perspectives

Over the past decade, the linkages between marriage and child well-being have attracted the attention of researchers and policy makers alike. Children's living arrangements have become increasingly diverse and unstable, which raises important questions about how and why family structure and stability are related to child outcomes. This article reviews new research on this topic, emphasizing how it can inform policy debates about the role of marriage in reducing poverty and improving child outcomes. It also pays special attention to new scholarship on unmarried, primarily low-income families, the target of recent federal marriage initiatives, to appraise the potential contributions of family research to ongoing policy discussions.     

Resilience and risk competence in schools: theory/knowledge and international application in project rebound

Despite a 50-year interdisciplinary and longitudinal research legacy--showing that nearly 80% of young people considered most "at risk" thrive by midlife-only recently have practitioners/researchers engaged in the explicit, prospective facilitation of "resilience" in educational settings. Here, theory/knowledge distinguishing and extending risk and resilience from its risk-based social history to resilience's normative occurrence leads to the first known international and prospective application of resilience in school-based drug education, Project REBOUND [resilience-bound]. It will be implemented as a controlled pilot study, first in Germany, then expand to the United States, as well as other parts of Europe. With evaluation occurring throughout, the goal is to enhance the quality of drug decisions among young people, as well as support their overall competence-based learning and development throughout school. With limitations and underlying psychological mechanisms discussed, it is concluded Project REBOUND offers promising potential for supporting positive drug decisions as well as youth learning and development.     

An exploration of Iranian communication to multiple target audiences

State-controlled media use similar message techniques to target specific publics that counterparts in democratic societies use. We explore talking points (attributes) and themes (frames) through content analysis in state-produced propaganda directed at two different audiences. Domestic and internationally targeted propaganda (N = 1491) from Iran regarding the issue of regional security was reviewed. Results indicated Iran emphasized different attributes and frames based on audiences. Themes about enemy correlated, and relationships between officials and themes were explored.