Rational praying: The economics of prayer

Prayer, both public and private, is prescribed by most religious traditions. Patterns of prayer are shown to conform to an economic theory of spiritual health. With regard to the frequency of prayer, wages are predicted to correlate negatively, education is predicted to correlate positively, environmental factors that are supportive of prayer are predicted to correlative positively, and the expected “price” for participation in religious activity (the tithe in Judaism and Christianity and the Zakat in Islam) is predicted to correlate negatively. Empirical tests find the predictions of the model are supported for females, but only partially supported for males.     

Assessing the impact of ICH E9

The ICH harmonized tripartite guideline 'Statistical Principles for Clinical Trials', more commonly referred to as ICH E9, was adopted by the regulatory bodies of the European Union, Japan and the USA in 1998. This document united related guidance documents on statistical methodology from each of the three ICH regions, and meant that for the first time clear consistent guidance on statistical principles was available to those conducting and reviewing clinical trials. At the 10th anniversary of the guideline's adoption, this paper discusses the influence of ICH E9 by presenting a perspective on how approaches to some aspects of clinical trial design, conduct and analysis have changed in that time in the context of regulatory submissions in the European Union.     

Outcome of Minnesota's Gambling Treatment Programs

This study measured the outcome of four state-supported outpatient gambling treatment programs in Minnesota. The programs were developed specifically for the treatment of pathological gamblers and offered multiple modalities of treatment including individual, group, education, twelve-step work, family groups, and financial counseling. The therapeutic orientation was eclectic with an emphasis on the twelve steps of Gamblers Anonymous (GA) and a treatment goal of abstinence. The sample included 348 men and 220 women treated between January 1992 and January 1995. A pretest-posttest design was utilized with multidimensional assessments obtained at intake, discharge, six-months, and twelve-months post-discharge. Variables assessed included a range of clinical and outcome variables. At six month follow-up, 28% reported that they had abstained from gambling during the six months following discharge and an additional 20% had gambled less than once per month. Almost half of the sample (48%) showed clinically significant improvement in gambling frequency at six monthfollow-up. Outcome variables of gambling frequency, SOGS scores, amount of money gambled, number of friends who gamble, psychosocial problems, and number of financial problems, all showed statistically significant improvements from pretreatment to follow-up. The treatment programs yielded outcome results similar to those reported for alcohol and drug abuse treatment programs.     

A gulf of difference: disputes over Gulf War-related illnesses.

The social discovery of Gulf War-related illnesses, like other occupational and environmental disease, is firmly rooted in ongoing disputes over causation. Pressure from veterans groups, as well as intra-governmental disputes, have driven innovative research directions and challenged the dominant epidemiological paradigm. This dominant epidemiological paradigm was originally a position that viewed stress as the primary causal factor. In the emerging dominant epidemiological paradigm, researchers view veterans' symptoms as similar to other multi-symptom diseases and conditions, but with a firmer respect for the reality of those symptoms. In addition, some researchers pursue interactions between stress and physical exposure. We examine the evolution of the DEP to demonstrate that in many disease disputes, an affected population challenges government and science decision-making, and even ways of knowing, in an attempt to negotiate a disease definition and etiology that results in better treatment and prevention. After considerable research effort, only limited evidence has been found for environmental causation, and even many researchers sympathetic to veterans are doubtful that much more will be found. We analyze the social discovery and ongoing contestation of these illnesses, and the consequent effects on health and public policy. For extension to other disease disputes, we provide an overall model of disease discovery and contestation, examining the key forces of government, science, and citizens.     

全球资源供应链的变通选择

跨国企业正在意识到,他们不得不平衡海外运作的“两面性”将生产转向低成本的国家是获得巨大节约的一种保险的方法。但是,无论你对需求预测多么准确,国际化拓展后的供应链也会是一种巨大的风险,甚至导致精心策划的海外计划失败。     

Obtaining multistate life table distributions for highly refined subpopulations from cross-sectional data: A bayesian extension of sullivan’s method

Multistate life table methods are often used to estimate the proportion of remaining life that individuals can expect to spend in various states, such as healthy and unhealthy states. Sullivan’s method is commonly used when panels containing data on transitions are unavailable and true multistate tables cannot be generated. Sullivan’s method requires only cross-sectional mortality data and cross-sectional data indicating prevalence in states of interest. Such data often come from sample surveys, which are widely available. Although the data requirements for Sullivan’s method are minimal, the method is limited in its ability to produce estimates for subpopulations because of limited disaggregation of data in cross-sectional mortality files and small cell sizes in aggregated survey data. In this article, we develop, test, and demonstrate a method that adapts Sullivan’s approach to allow the inclusion of covariates in producing interval estimates of state expectancies for any desired subpopulation that can be specified in the cross-sectional prevalence data. The method involves a three-step process: (1) using Gibbs sampling to sample parameters from a bivariate regression model; (2) using ecological inference for producing transition probability matrices from the Gibbs samples; (3) using standard multistate calculations to convert the transition probability matrices into multistate life tables.