Quantitative Risk Assessment of Vibrio parahaemolyticus in Finfish: A Model of Raw Horse Mackerel Consumption in Japan

The aim of this study was to evaluate the effects of implemented control measures to reduce illness induced by Vibrio parahaemolyticus (V. parahaemolyticus) in horse mackerel (Trachurus japonicus), seafood that is commonly consumed raw in Japan. On the basis of currently available experimental and survey data, we constructed a quantitative risk model of V. parahaemolyticus in horse mackerel from harvest to consumption. In particular, the following factors were evaluated: bacterial growth at all stages, effects of washing the fish body and storage water, and bacterial transfer from the fish surface, gills, and intestine to fillets during preparation. New parameters of the beta‐Poisson dose‐response model were determined from all human feeding trials, some of which have been used for risk assessment by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (USFDA). The probability of illness caused by V. parahaemolyticus was estimated using both the USFDA dose‐response parameters and our parameters for each selected pathway of scenario alternatives: washing whole fish at landing, storage in contaminated water, high temperature during transportation, and washing fish during preparation. The last scenario (washing fish during preparation) was the most effective for reducing the risk of illness by about a factor of 10 compared to no washing at this stage. Risk of illness increased by 50% by exposure to increased temperature during transportation, according to our assumptions of duration and temperature. The other two scenarios did not significantly affect risk. The choice of dose‐response parameters was not critical for evaluation of control measures.     

Confidence in Australian Institutions 1983–2005

This paper examines changes in the level of institutional confidence in Australia between 1983 and 2005. The principal aim of the paper is to disaggregate the general trend in social trust and overall institutional confidence. Using data drawn from three waves of the World Values Survey undertaken in 1983, 1995 and 2005 we examine whether social trust and confidence have declined and the differing patterns of confidence for different birth cohorts in Australia. The results show a significant decrease in social trust and a large decline in confidence between 1983 and 1995. There was little change in confidence between 1995 and 2005, but social trust returned to the 1983 level over that period. A cohort analysis shows that the oldest cohort, those born before WWII, reported the largest decline in confidence, while by 2005 the baby boomers (or middle cohort born between 1944 and 1955) were the most confident, with the oldest group reporting the least confidence. Throughout the 1990s and early 2000s confidence has been at a much lower level than in the early 1980s.     

An alternative approach for analysis of performance of one-sided cusum charts with variable sampling intervals

An alternative approach for analyzing performance of one-sided Cusum charts with variable sampling intervals (VSI) is proposed. In this approach, a Markov chain with some dummy states is used. By this approach some dynamic performance measures of the VSI Cusum charts, such as the distribution of time to signal and the average time to signal against a change-point, can be determined. Some numerical results are shown, and from these results the dynamic performance of VSI Cusum charts is discussed.     

罗奈特:致力于核能和平利用与发展

罗奈特教授作为外籍专家，目睹了中国改革开放以来的飞速发展。其实，中国的发展离不开千千万万像罗奈特教授一样的外籍专家和友好人士的关心与支持。     

Whose Wishes and Feelings? Children's Autonomy and Parental Influence in Family Court Enquiries

The importance of the child’s right to be heard and fortheir wishes and feelings to be taken notice of is now acceptedacross a broad professional and research terrain. Increasingly,children are being treated as active participants in the processesand decisions that affect them. In cases of divorce and separation,especially where parental relationships are conflicted, theaccepted wisdom in the UK for many years has been for childrento be protected rather than empowered. More recently, practitioners,policy makers and researchers have looked for ways to involvechildren, although the ‘welfare’ of the child hasremained paramount. In this context, the question of how toensure that wishes and feelings expressed are those that authenticallybelong to the child, rather than to their parent, sibling orother, has achieved a new significance. This article presentsfindings from recent research to illustrate how the tensionbetween protection and empowerment is being played out in thisaspect of welfare report enquiries carried out by CAFCASS (Childrenand Family Court Advisory and Support Service) private law practitioners.     

How much ambiguity aversion?

Experimental results on the Ellsberg paradox typically reveal behavior that is commonly interpreted as ambiguity aversion. The experiments reported in the current paper find the objective probabilities for drawing a red ball that make subjects indifferent between various risky and uncertain Ellsberg bets. They allow us to examine the predictive power of alternative principles of choice under uncertainty, including the objective maximin and Hurwicz criteria, the sure-thing principle, and the principle of insufficient reason. Contrary to our expectations, the principle of insufficient reason performed substantially better than rival theories in our experiment, with ambiguity aversion appearing only as a secondary phenomenon.     

Immigrant assimilation pre and post labour market entry: evidence from the UK Labour Force Survey

We estimate models of employment an earnings for a sample of white and non-white male immigrants drawn from the Labour Force Survey between 1993 and 2004. Immigrants who arrived to enter the labour market (labour market entrants) are distinguished from those who arrived to complete their education (education entrants). Diverse patterns of labour market assimilation are found depending on ethnicity and immigrant type. Amongst labour market entrants, whites do better than non-whites, whilst amongst education entrants, highly qualified prime-age non-whites perform as well as their white counterparts. Relative to white natives, labour market outcomes for all immigrant groups have a tendency to decline with age.

Vine copula models with GLM and sparsity

Vine copula provides a flexible tool to capture asymmetry in modeling multivariate distributions. Nevertheless, its flexibility is achieved at the expense of exponentially increasing complexity of the model. To alleviate this issue, the simplifying assumption (SA) is commonly adapted in specific applications of vine copula models. In this paper, generalized linear models (GLMs) are proposed for the parameters in conditional bivariate copulas to relax the SA. In the spirit of the principle of parsimony, a regularization methodology is developed to control the number of parameters, leading to sparse vine copula models. The conventional vine copula with the SA, the proposed GLM-based vine copula, and the sparse vine copula are applied to several financial datasets, and the results show that our proposed models outperform the one with SA significantly in terms of the Bayesian information criterion.     

Equilibrium Wage‐Tenure Contracts

In this study we consider a labor market matching model where firms post wage‐tenure contracts and workers, both employed and unemployed, search for new job opportunities. Given workers are risk averse, we establish there is a unique equilibrium in the environment considered. Although firms in the market make different offers in equilibrium, all post a wage‐tenure contract that implies a worker's wage increases smoothly with tenure at the firm. As firms make different offers, there is job turnover, as employed workers move jobs as the opportunity arises. This implies the increase in a worker's wage can be due to job‐to‐job movements as well as wage‐tenure effects. Further, there is a nondegenerate equilibrium distribution of initial wage offers that is differentiable on its support except for a mass point at the lowest initial wage. We also show that relevant characteristics of the equilibrium can be written as explicit functions of preferences and the other market parameters.