Spatial weighting improves accuracy in small-area demographic forecasts of urban census tract populations

Existing research in small-area demographic forecasting suffers from two important limitations: (1) a paucity of studies that quantify patterns of error in either total or age/sex-specific estimates and (2) limited methodological innovation aimed specifically at improving the accuracy of such forecasts. This paper attempts to fill, in part, these gaps in existing research by presenting a comparative evaluation of the accuracy of standard and spatially-weighted Hamilton–Perry forecasts for urbanized census tracts within incorporated New Mexico municipalities. These comparative forecasts are constructed for a 10-year horizon (base 1 April 2000 and target 1 April 2010), then compared to the results of the 2010 Census in an ex post facto evaluation. Results are presented for the standard Hamilton–Perry forecasts as well as two sets that incorporate two common variants of spatial weights to improve forecast accuracy. Findings are discussed in the context of what is currently known about error in small-area demographic forecasts and with an eye toward continued innovations.     

The impact of incomplete geocoding on small area population estimates

Small-area population estimates are often made using geocoded address data in conjunction with the housing-unit method. Previous research, however, suggests that these data are subject to systematic incompleteness that biases estimates of race, ethnicity, and other important demographic characteristics. This incompleteness is driven largely by an inability to complete georeference address-based datasets. Given these challenges, small-area demographers need further, and to date largely unavailable, information on the amount of error typically introduced by using incompletely geocoded data to estimate population. More specifically, we argue that applied demographers should like to know if these errors are statistically significant, spatially patterned, or systematically related to specific population characteristics. This paper evaluates the impact of incomplete geocoding on accuracy in small-area population estimates, using a Vintage 2000 set of block-group estimates of the household population for the Albuquerque, NM metro area. Precise estimates of the impact of incomplete geocoding on the accuracy of estimates are made, associations with specific demographic characteristics are considered, and a simple potential remediation based on Horvitz-Thompson theory is presented. The implications of these results for the practice of applied demography are reviewed.     

Honorary Authorship Practices in Environmental Science Teams: Structural and Cultural Factors and Solutions

Overinclusive authorship practices such as honorary or guest authorship have been widely reported, and they appear to be exacerbated by the rise of large interdisciplinary collaborations that make authorship decisions particularly complex. Although many studies have reported on the frequency of honorary authorship and potential solutions to it, few have probed how the underlying dynamics of large interdisciplinary teams contribute to the problem. This article reports on a qualitative study of the authorship standards and practices of six National Science Foundation-funded interdisciplinary environmental science teams. Using interviews of the lead principal investigator and an early-career member on each team, our study explores the nature of honorary authorship practices as well as some of the motivating factors that may contribute to these practices. These factors include both structural elements (policies and procedures) and cultural elements (values and norms) that cross organizational boundaries. Therefore, we provide recommendations that address the intersection of these factors and that can be applied at multiple organizational levels.     

Love and hooking up in the new millennium: communication technology and relationships among urban African American and Puerto Rican young adults

Communication technology is a central feature of young people's lives, but its role in romantic and sexual relationships has not been thoroughly examined. This article describes how young adults use communication technology for partnering across relationship stages (formation, maintenance, and dissolution) and types (serious/casual), and proposes implications of usage in relationships. This study analyzed qualitative data from a five-week, prospective, coital diary method with related debriefing interviews (N = 70) of African American and Puerto Rican men and women aged 18 to 25 years in Hartford and Philadelphia. Cell phones, including calls, text messaging, and mobile Internet, were the most common forms of communication technology used for partnering goals. Participants reported using cell phones to pursue partnering goals across all relationship stages, including formation (meeting, screening, and getting to know new partners), maintaining existing relationships, and breaking up. Cell phone uses depended on the type of relationship (serious/casual) and the participants' intentions and desires. Results indicated that cell phones are an important element of communication among young adults in romantic and sexual relationships. Specific features of cell phone communication shape the process and context of partnering. Future research should explore emerging communication technologies and implications for psychosocial development, dating violence, and sexual behavior.     

The geographic scale of Metropolitan racial segregation

This article addresses an aspect of racial residential segregation that has been largely ignored in prior work: the issue of geographic scale. In some metropolitan areas, racial groups are segregated over large regions, with predominately white regions, predominately black regions, and so on, whereas in other areas, the separation of racial groups occurs over much shorter distances. Here we develop an approach—featuring the segregation profile and the corresponding macro/micro segregation ratio—that offers a scale-sensitive alternative to standard methodological practice for describing segregation. Using this approach, we measure and describe the geographic scale of racial segregation in the 40 largest U.S. metropolitan areas in 2000. We find considerable heterogeneity in the geographic scale of segregation patterns across both metropolitan areas and racial groups, a heterogeneity that is not evident using conventional “aspatial” segregation measures. Moreover, because the geographic scale of segregation is only modestly correlated with the level of segregation in our sample, we argue that geographic scale represents a distinct dimension of residential segregation. We conclude with a brief discussion of the implications of our findings for investigating the patterns, causes, and consequences of residential segregation at different geographic scales.     

Income inequality and income segregation

This article investigates how the growth in income inequality from 1970 to 2000 affected patterns of income segregation along three dimensions: the spatial segregation of poverty and affluence, race-specific patterns of income segregation, and the geographic scale of income segregation. The evidence reveals a robust relationship between income inequality and income segregation, an effect that is larger for black families than for white families. In addition, income inequality affects income segregation primarily through its effect on the large-scale spatial segregation of affluence rather than by affecting the spatial segregation of poverty or by altering small-scale patterns of income segregation.     

Has Income Segregation Really Increased? Bias and Bias Correction in Sample-Based Segregation Estimates

Several recent studies have concluded that residential segregation by income in the United States has increased in the decades since 1970, including a significant increase after 2000. Income segregation measures, however, are biased upward when based on sample data. This is a potential concern because the sampling rate of the American Community Survey (ACS)—from which post-2000 income segregation estimates are constructed—was lower than that of the earlier decennial censuses. Thus, the apparent increase in income segregation post-2000 may simply reflect larger upward bias in the estimates from the ACS, and the estimated trend may therefore be inaccurate. In this study, we first derive formulas describing the approximate sampling bias in two measures of segregation. Next, using Monte Carlo simulations, we show that the bias-corrected estimators eliminate virtually all of the bias in segregation estimates in most cases of practical interest, although the correction fails to eliminate bias in some cases when the population is unevenly distributed among geographic units and the average within-unit samples are very small. We then use the bias-corrected estimators to produce unbiased estimates of the trends in income segregation over the last four decades in large U.S. metropolitan areas. Using these corrected estimates, we replicate the central analyses in four prior studies on income segregation. We find that the primary conclusions from these studies remain unchanged, although the true increase in income segregation among families after 2000 was only half as large as that reported in earlier work. Despite this revision, our replications confirm that income segregation has increased sharply in recent decades among families with children and that income inequality is a strong and consistent predictor of income segregation.     

University efforts to address confidentiality issues for STI services

Abstract

Objective: This study assessed university policies for addressing confidentiality issues for students seeking STI services. Participants: Universities with sponsored health insurance plans (SHIP) and/or wellness centers were selected from a university health services survey in 2017. Methods: STI service coverage and polices for addressing confidentiality issues related to explanation of benefit (EOB) forms were stratified by institution type (4-year versus 2-year) and minority serving institution (MSI) status. Rao-Scott chi-square tests were used to assess for differences in STI service coverage and polices. Results: More non-MSIs (61.6%) had SHIPs compared to MSIs (40.0%, p?<?.001). Only 40.8% of health centers had a policy for addressing EOB-related confidently issues. Of those, the most reported policy was that students could pay out-of-pocket to avoid generating an EOB (36.2%). Conclusions: Reducing confidentiality barriers are important for STI prevention in students. Universities may consider establishing policies for addressing EOB-related confidentiality concerns.     

Sensegiving,Leadership, and Nonprofit Crises: How Nonprofit Leaders Make and Give Sense to Organizational Crisis

This study examined how 43 nonprofit leaders across 15 U.S. states make sense of organizational crises in nonprofit contexts, as well as what they think effective leadership is during crises. Findings revealed perceived nonprofit organizational crises emerging from disasters, disruption of mission delivery, internal stakeholder challenges, and unanticipated occurrences, while six major characteristics of effective crisis leadership emerged including being a team player, being strategic, being transparent with stakeholders, being quick to respond, being self-composed, and being prepared. Comparisons to previous empirical investigations of nonprofit leadership and crisis response yielded additional insights into effective crisis leader sensemaking in nonprofit contexts—most notably that nonprofit crisis leaders leverage sensegiving frameworks of instrumental knowledge, normalcy, and dynamic learning. Further analysis demonstrated these diagnostic and prognostic sensegiving activities to be more clearly observed than motivational sensegiving activities across crisis leaders in nonprofit contexts.     

Therapists Working in New and Old Ways: An Integrative Ecological Framework for Non‐Familial Intergenerational Relationships

Non‐familial intergenerational (NFIG) relationships can complement conventional therapeutic interventions. We discuss the intergenerational gap and structural changes families have experienced over the last several decades. We advocate for an integrative framework combining non‐familial intergenerational opportunities with conventional therapeutic interventions. Finally, we address logistical and ethical dimensions of the integrative framework and participants' fitness, motivation, potential, and needs within non‐familial intergenerational programs/partnerships.