Evolution and Event in History and Social Change: Gerhard Lenski's Critical Theory

Authors have contrasted social change and history many times, especially in terms of the significance of the event in accounting for the broadest contours of human societies' evolution. After recasting Gerhard Lenski's ecological‐evolutionary theory in a critical fashion, by emphasizing its engagement with alternativity and by introducing a different approach to structure, I reconsider the salience of the event in the developmentalist project and suggest that ecological‐evolutionary theory can be quite helpful in posing new questions about an eventful sociology. By rethinking communism's collapse in 1989 and terrorism's explosion in 2001 within Lenski's theoretical frame, one can suggest critical transformations of theory and research on the evolution of human societies.     

The pattern of child sexual abuse in northern ireland

A team from the Departments of Child Psychiatry, Royal Belfast Hospital for Sick Children, and of Epidemiology and Public Health, Queens University Belfast, conducted a study in 1987 of the reported incidence of child sexual abuse in Northern Ireland. The incidence rate of established cases of child sexual abuse was 0.9 per 1000 children under the age of 17 years. Further analysis of all the cases of sexual abuse (suspected, alleged and established) and an estimation of the potential under-ascertainment indicated that the actual rate was between 0.9 per 1000 and 1.85 per 1000 children. Data obtained from a detailed structured questionnaire on each sexually abused child was analysed. The results are presented in relation to the child, age and sex; the abuse, type and duration; the abuser, sex, age and relationship to the child; and outcome factors, initial psychological sequelae, physical signs and symptoms, and social sequelae.     

The view from within: how patients perceive the seclusion process.

1. Reported patient perceptions of seclusion revealed many negative feelings. The quest for the human element, dignity, to understand and to be understood, and to be reassured was a theme throughout. 2. Whatever nurses can do before or during the seclusion process that results in more positive perceptions by patients helps promote more comfortable feelings and more appropriate behavior. Frequent reviews of seclusion policies and procedures are important. 3. Debriefing may be one of the most important ways that staff can help the patient in diminishing the emotional impact of seclusion. It provides an opportunity to clarify the rationale for the seclusion, offer mutual feedback, and promote the patient's self-esteem.     

Effects of social change on well-being: Boom and bust in a Western Canadian city

Drawing from surveys done over a eight year period, we find some important effects on well-being coming from economic boom and bust in a Western Canadian city. This effect is buffered, however, by the important role that family and friends play for young people and health and non-working activities play for the adjustment of older people. Because of these factors, difficulties in the objective condition of economic downturn has had less impact on the general social well-being of the public than previously reported.     

Algorithms

Abstract

The main reason for the limited use of multivariate discrete models is the difficulty in calculating the required probabilities. The task is usually undertaken via recursive relationships which become quite computationally demanding for high dimensions and large values. The present paper discusses efficient algorithms that make use of the recurrence relationships in a manner that reduces the computational effort and thus allow for easy and cheap calculation of the probabilities. The most common multivariate discrete distribution, the multivariate Poisson distribution is treated. Real data problems are provided to motivate the use of the proposed strategies. Extensions of our results are discussed. It is shown that probabilities, for a large family of multivariate distributions, can be computed efficiently via our algorithms.     

Gaussian process emulation for second-order Monte Carlo simulations

We consider the use of emulator technology as an alternative method to second-order Monte Carlo (2DMC) in the uncertainty analysis for a percentile from the output of a stochastic model. 2DMC is a technique that uses repeated sampling in order to make inferences on the uncertainty and variability in a model output. The conventional 2DMC approach can often be highly computational, making methods for uncertainty and sensitivity analysis unfeasible. We explore the adequacy and efficiency of the emulation approach, and we find that emulation provides a viable alternative in this situation. We demonstrate these methods using two different examples of different input dimensions, including an application that considers contamination in pre-pasteurised milk.