LIFESPAN AND OUTPUT

This paper develops a finite-lifetime continuous-time model of human capital acquisition. Exogenous technological progress has two aspects, a knowledge frontier and an ease-of-learning parameter. We find that as lifespan increases: (1) output per person-hour rises in a concave fashion, and (2) learning during the work-phase of life only occurs when individuals have a sufficiently long lifespan. As a result, countries that differ in the average lifespan of their inhabitants can have permanently different levels of output per person even in the presence of free trade, perfect capital markets and common production functions. ( JEL O33, J24, F43, D91)     

Information Seeking about Global Climate Change among Adolescents: The Role of Risk Perceptions, Efficacy Beliefs and Parental Influences

Global climate change is likely to have significant impacts on public health. Effective communication is critical to informing public decision making and behavior to mitigate climate change. An effective method of audience segmentation, the risk perception attitude (RPA) framework has been previously tested with other health behaviors and classifies people into 4 groups on the basis of their perceptions of risk and beliefs about personal efficacy. The 4 groups - indifference (low risk, weak efficacy), proactive (low risk, strong efficacy), avoidance (high risk, weak efficacy), and responsive (high risk, strong efficacy) - are hypothesized to differ in their self-protective behaviors and in their motivations to seek information. In this paper, we extend the RPA framework in two ways. First, we use it at the household level to determine whether parental classifications into the 4 groups are associated with their teenage children's classification into the same 4 groups. Second, we predict adolescent information-seeking behaviors on the basis of their and their parents' membership in the 4 RPA groups. Results (N = 523 parent-adolescent pairs) indicated that parental membership in the 4 RPA groups was significantly associated with children's membership in the same 4 groups. Furthermore, the RPA framework was a significant predictor of adolescent information-seeking: those in the responsive and avoidance groups sought more information on climate change than the indifference group. Family communication on global warming was positively associated with adolescents' information-seeking. Implications for interventions are discussed.     

Sociology’s Sacred Victims and the Politics of Knowledge: Moral Foundations Theory and Disciplinary Controversies

The field of sociology has long been subject to critique for alleged ideological bias and left-wing groupthink linked to its social justice mission. Critics contend that the construction of “sacred victims” by progressive intellectuals hinders their ability to objectively appraise the circumstances of such vulnerable groups. To address this criticism, we survey 479 sociologists in national universities and colleges in the U.S. regarding three sensitive controversies: urban poverty in the black community; gendered differences in occupational choices; and immigration. We find significant patterns in the data. Commitment to the field’s “moral mission,” preferred research paradigm, gender, and especially political orientation are all significant predictors of sociologists’ views. The results, we suggest, can be understood by conceptualizing the field of sociology as an “emotive community.” In doing so, we draw upon current social psychological research on moral foundations theory developed by Jonathan Haidt and colleagues.     

BIG DATA AND BIG CITIES: THE PROMISES AND LIMITATIONS OF IMPROVED MEASURES OF URBAN LIFE

New, “big data” sources allow measurement of city characteristics and outcome variables at higher collection frequencies and more granular geographic scales than ever before. However, big data will not solve large urban social science questions on its own. Big urban data has the most value for the study of cities when it allows measurement of the previously opaque, or when it can be coupled with exogenous shocks to people or place. We describe a number of new urban data sources and illustrate how they can be used to improve the study and function of cities. We first show how Google Street View images can be used to predict income in New York City, suggesting that similar imagery data can be used to map wealth and poverty in previously unmeasured areas of the developing world. We then discuss how survey techniques can be improved to better measure willingness to pay for urban amenities. Finally, we explain how Internet data is being used to improve the quality of city services. (JEL R1, C8, C18)     

INFORMATION INTERDEPENDENCE: Keohane and Nye's complex interdependence in the information age

A well-known and respected attempt to theorize interdependence in the field of international relations is complex interdependence. In Power and Interdependence , Robert O. Keohane and Joseph S. Nye, Jr define interdependence as reciprocal effects among actors resulting from 'international transactions - flows of money, goods, people and messages across international boundaries'. Though much research has been done on the effects of interdependence on the first three, the flows of messages have been studied less often. Keohane and Nye addressed the issue in a 1998 article in Foreign Affairs , discussing changes in the global environment resulting from the information age which have had an impact on their ideas. This article proposes to go deeper into complex interdependence. The world is becoming increasingly 'information interdependent' and this essay is an attempt to apply the assumptions and concepts presented in complex interdependence to the information age. In the final analysis, complex interdependence complements research from the field of communications, that information flows should be understood as underlying mechanisms and processes that facilitate contextual understanding of issues. It maintains the integrity of the assumptions of complex interdependence, while adding an understanding of the nature of information and information flows.     

TARGETING WORKING PROFESSIONALS: A MASTER'S OF ARTS IN GERONTOLOGY

This overview of an online degree programme aims to develop a concrete illustration of an exploding array of courses and programmes. The approach at the Ethel Percy Andrus Gerontology Center, at the University of Southern California, seeks to address a targeted audience and to build on the special strengths and more unique degree programmes of the University.     

Utilizing Bayesian predictive power in clinical trial design

The Bayesian paradigm provides an ideal platform to update uncertainties and carry them over into the future in the presence of data. Bayesian predictive power (BPP) reflects our belief in the eventual success of a clinical trial to meet its goals. In this paper we derive mathematical expressions for the most common types of outcomes, to make the BPP accessible to practitioners, facilitate fast computations in adaptive trial design simulations that use interim futility monitoring, and propose an organized BPP-based phase II-to-phase III design framework.