The theory of risk-bearing: Small and great risks

Under certain conditions, risk-sharing and, in particular, insurance are mutually advantageous transactions. An ideal competitive market fcr risk-shifting is described; the payments received by individuals depend on the resolution of all the uncertainties at the time of the market, including, for example, damages to all parties, not just to the insured. In an ideal system, premiums depend only on the total damage in a given state, not on its distribution over individuals. In particular, mitigation measures are optimally induced. The differences between the ideal model of insurance and the real world are described, and some explanations offered.     

Privatizing Social Services in the U.S.A.

Governmental and private sector social services organizations have traditionally shared important roles for provision and delivery of social services in the United States. Over the past fifty years, however, a predominant position has developed for the public sector, especially through federal funding for social service programmes. Recent challenges to the prevailing role of public sector dominance have been expressed by the proponents for privatization at a time when decreasing federal funds are made available for social service programmes. The analysis presented here examines the potential and problems associated with the privatization strategies offered through load shedding, limited-government arrangements, fee charging and competition. As a macro level approach for a comprehensive system of social service provision and delivery, these privatization strategies raise more questions than immediate solutions. A more optimistic view is taken if privatization leads to a more meaningful balance with increased co-operation between public and private social welfare auspices.     

Updating the Debate on Intergenerational Fairness in Pension Reform

This article examines the arguments involved in claims about the fairness or unfairness of government policies that would require current working generations to bear the full impact of their lower fertility on the costs of retirement pensions. The analysis is set in the context of a wider review of debate on the role of the idea of generational fairness in assessing options for reform under conditions of population ageing. The article considers three questions: whether generational fairness poses a serious problem for pay‐as‐you‐go pension schemes; whether it is reasonable to assess the generational fairness of pension policy in isolation from other kinds of generational transfer; and whether there is a good case for redistribution from future generations in favour of the baby boom generation.     

Computation of exact probability values for multi-response permutation procedures (MRPP)

An algorithm is presented for computing the exact probability value associated with a recently–developed class of statistical inference techniques termed multi–response permutation procedures (MRPP).     

Asymptotic Expansions for i.i.d. Sums Via Lower-order Convolutions

In this article, we introduce new asymptotic expansions for probability functions of sums of independent and identically distributed random variables. Results are obtained by efficiently employing information provided by lower-order convolutions. In comparison with Edgeworth-type theorems, advantages include improved asymptotic results in the case of symmetric random variables and ease of computation of main error terms and asymptotic crossing points. The first-order estimate can perform quite well against the corresponding renormalized saddlepoint approximation and, pointwise, requires evaluation of only a single convolution integral. While the new expansions are fairly straightforward, the implications are fortuitous and may spur further related work.     

Subnational Non-Hispanic White Natural Decrease in the United States

This research is the first to examine the prevalence and dynamics of non-Hispanic white natural decrease in fine scale subregional units of the United States. In 2015, more non-Hispanic Whites died than were born in 65 percent of the US counties. This is the highest incidence of non-Hispanic white natural decrease ever reported. It results from a complex interaction among fertility, mortality, and migration over a protracted period. Spatial regression is used to identify three critical variables (over-65 population, child–women ratio, and women of childbearing age) that are the immediate demographic causes of this natural decrease. The timely, factual information in this paper provides a demographic context for analysis of the social, political, and policy implications of this emergent demographic phenomenon.     

Indigenous Micro-Ethnicity and Principles of Identification in Southeast Borneo

This article explores the nature of indigenous ethnicity in Borneo and its historical transformation. The principal focus is on Dayak ethnicity beneath the level of generic Dayak identity. Through examples from interior southeast Borneo, I describe a historically dominant pattern of identification with small and localised groups and the emergence of larger ethnic categories. Like elsewhere in Borneo, a condition of pervasive micro-ethnic differentiation was endemic, while larger categories were generally unimportant and mostly evolved only recently. I assess the importance of different underlying principles of collective identification for this pattern—culture, descent, kinship, locality and politics—and examine the importance of state influence for the subsequent development of larger categories. I propose that ethnicity in Borneo, as in most places, is fundamentally political. I discuss how this applies to both past and present forms, and relates to a distinctive significance of locality for collective identification.